MaoXian Means Take a Risk
Sunday, September 29

INCA Ruins

ISLD + INCA = SNAIL DIC (Instinet, INET, Daily Chart Since IPO)

Instinet merged with Island last week. I've always wanted to be a shareholder of ISLD but never of Instinet, so I'm a bit conflicted here.

Last time I checked, Instinet had a book value of around $5 a share, and though they'll lose money this year I think they earned $0.63 a share last year (that's GAAP EPS, not some pro forma bullshit), so if the stock is trading around $3 a share, there seems to be a healthy "margin of safety." Then again, there are some very good reasons the stock is trading down there; the market may not be efficient, but it ain't stupid....

Worrisome things to consider: Will SuperMontage utterly wreck Instinet's business? Will Instinet ever be able to raise execution fees, which they've been cutting like mad to maintain market share? Will Island and Instinet be able to get along together given their mutual hatred in the past? Will Ma and Pa Mouseclicker ever return to day trading Nasdaq stocks?

Will the Chairman look completely foolish for recommending another bomb?



September 22

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