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November 27, 2007


10-year Treasury Note Overshoots — Expect a Pause

For the last month or so folks have been looking for the yield on the ten-year note to get down to 3.971% — it flew through there yesterday (Monday). The flight to safety has been pretty dramatic and I expect things to calm down for a bit here. My usual caveat applies: I’m probably wrong.


Click to enlarge (Ten-year US Treasury Note Yield, Daily)

If you prefer to think in terms of price instead of yield (I never do, yield is much more intuitive to me), here’s the daily chart of the 10-year T-note futures (December contract).


Click to enlarge (Ten-year US Treasury Note Futures, December contract, Daily)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 27th, 2007 at 12:07 pm (utc+8) and is filed under Trading and Investing.

3 Responses to “10-year Treasury Note Overshoots — Expect a Pause”

  1. Babak said:
    November 28th, 2007 at 5:08 am

    CM,
    according to the monthly ROC not only is the 10 year bonds stretched to the downside, it is signalling a coming rally for the equity market.

  2. C. Maoxian said:
    November 28th, 2007 at 10:02 am

    Babak: I’ve never looked at this ROC indicator, but the move in the bonds has been huge and looks a little exhausted.

  3. manuel said:
    November 29th, 2007 at 10:40 am

    any longs that haven’t lightened up will regret

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