May 28, 2007
11,000 Planes in the Sky and Only 100 Good Pilots
Good bit from an interview with Ray Dalio (a guy who gets it) in this week’s Barron’s:
“Our situation today is a modern-day version of the time before the Bretton Woods breakup. It is very much analogous to 1968, ‘69, and ‘70, a period in which we had large imbalances, a fixed exchange rate, and Japan and Germany bought our bonds, and then there was a rebalancing. China today is similar to Japan then, in transition from being an emerging economy, except it is about eight times as large. The imbalances are only going to increase, and there’ll need to be an adjustment for that. This will lead to depreciation in the value of the dollar relative to emerging countries’ currencies, particularly those in Asia.”
Correct.
Cat: | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8)
May 28th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
And trust me, the other 10,900 think they are just as good.
May 28th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Hey Chairman!
Do you really still think Barron’s is not worth it? You find interesting stuff on it pretty often
May 28th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
NKR: I pay $120 a year for the W$J/Barron’s combo ($100 for WSJ and $20 for Barron’s). I gladly pay $20 a year for Barron’s online but if they asked for much more I would drop them like a hot sweet potato.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:31 am
Hola amigo…you are about to witness one of the greatest trend changes in 20 years…the dollar is the place to be..back to new highs…soon….hasta luego
May 29th, 2007 at 7:48 am
What is your favorite currency and what do you think Warren Buffett bought?
May 29th, 2007 at 8:20 am
Hudson: I like the RMB … originally I thought Buffett may have gone long the USD as a “surprise” but now I’m thinking he did something different.
May 29th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Pablo chine, why do you think the dollar will go to new highs?
Buffett bet against the dollar. I am sure George Soros does not favor the dollar either. America has too much debt and refuses to address or make any changes.
May 29th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Almost everyone is bearish for the US$ on the long run. And the trend is down, but every trade depends on you time frame.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:17 am
OK…what is the BIGGEST factor causing the dollar to depreciate? Well, now even Jorge Bush is coming to terms with it…Warren Buffoon? that idiot was long silver years ago and sold before the huge rise…he is an idiot trader…and down on America…look elsewhere for advice.
May 30th, 2007 at 8:41 am
One day the USD downtrend will end, I just don’t know when.
May 30th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
[…] I feel a lot better about my long EURUSD position now. :) Along with common sense, my models still forecast a DOWN trend for the dollar but we must remain vigilant. Intra week flips could mean two things: it’s just noise or some significant levels were reached and reversals are possible. […]