July 23, 2008
14% of Option-ARM Customers Have Zero or Negative Equity
Wachovia Has Record $8.9 Billion Loss, Cuts Dividend
“Wachovia lowered the dividend to 5 cents a share from 37.5 cents … The second quarter loss included a $6.1 billion charge tied to declining asset values … Wachovia’s goodwill impairment charge didn’t include its Golden West business ‘due to the value of the retail banking franchise,’ the company said. The impairment included $4.5 billion in reduced value of commercial loans, plus $597 million in investment-banking assets.”
So what did the stock do given this terrible news on Tuesday? It gapped down (expected) and then reversed and ripped higher, moving up over 30% from the open (unexpected). It seems to be a good time to be day trading given the double-digit intraday percentage moves.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
except when you get stubborn and hold short, add more on the s&p cut
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:21 pm
So 86% of option-ARM customers have POSITIVE equity?
Don’t tell that number to the “usual suspects,” they’ll soil themselves!
To hear the story that’s being sung by the permabears, there’s not a single option-ARM anywhere in the U.S. that’s in the black!
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Bill: I think the problem is that people (and their models) anticipated low single-digit default rates for these loans. You get double or triple the expected number and you’re looking at massive problems (obviously already reflected throughout the financial sector). The bears have been dead right about the financials, though the perma-bears will not reverse themselves at the bottom (timing is everything).
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
“good time daytrading”
It is funny everyone says it is a good time daytrading if there is a lot of vola. And it seems so obvious: See all the opportunities…
I am trading for a living on a short timeframe and, yes, I need some vola, but my experience is if the vola increases suddenly it becomes much harder to sustain a good risk adjusted return. Anybody out here who has similiar experiences?
Cheers,
Markus
July 24th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I see the same thing as Markus. The percentage moves are bigger, but in terms of R there is not much difference.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Brian: There are some mighty narrow candles on that WB 15-min chart which would have given you some spectacular returns if you held into end of day, but of course since I’m not in the game I can’t tell for sure what it’s like.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:12 am
There are definitely some nice entries. I didn’t trade WB on the 22nd, but my rules would probably make around 10R. It’s spectacular, but not extraordinary for a good day. So I think I’ll leave the news trading for others.