Methods of a Grumpy Old Man

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (September), Daily Chart

I expected the ES to make a thrust up yesterday, but it thrust down instead. So it's fair to ask, did the Chairman get killed? Thankfully the answer is no. I have a directional bias going into the day for sure, but if the trend on the intraday chart is down, I'm not going to get on the wrong side of it.

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (September), 30-minute Chart

Dropping down to the intraday chart you can see the excellent entry that could have been had around lunchtime. The smallest time frame I now look at is the 30-minute. As I've said before, I'm too old to watch anything smaller. If you try to trade a very tiny time frame, like the 1-minute chart, chances are good you're going to succeed at two things: 1) generating commissions, and 2) burning out.

10-Year Treasury Notes (September), Daily Chart

I've shown in the chart above how the trailing stop has been moved down in the Notes short these last couple of weeks. Yesterday the stop was lowered to 112. I think the Notes will probably stabilize in here and the position will be stopped out in coming days, but that's just guesswork.

10-Year Treasury Notes (September), 30-minute Chart

When I suspect that the trend might be changing on the intraday chart, I avoid taking trades. On Monday I was leery of the short side in the Notes, but yesterday by lunchtime I was satisfied that the downtrend was fully in force, and it was safe once again to approach the market from the short side.

Only when the daily and intraday trends jibe is it safe to play; you don't want to be whipped around by the crosscurrents. The older I get, the safer I play it.

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