Thursday, August 28
I don't use the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey numbers to produce my Market
Timing signals, but I do look at them
for "confirmation." Sure enough, both after the terrorist attacks in 2001 and again last year in July, August, and October
the Bears outnumbered the Bulls. You have to buy when the bears are riding herd on the bulls; as I've said time and again: You gotta buy 'em
when they ain't.
Or as Buffett put it: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
Interesting comments by Peter Krasilovsky about newspapers and
tollgates: "Generally we think it is a big mistake to put yourself behind a tollgate, but there are three big
exceptions. If you are truly unique and highly valuable, like the Wall Street Journal, you probably can get away with it if
you reach all your goals. Exception 2, we call it the Albuquerque remote places rule; yeah, they do have a few thousand
subscribers and it doesn't hurt their circulation because they don't actually care about people outside their area. There
is nobody providing that type of content within the Albuquerque area, or Winnipeg, or other small remote marketplace." [He got
sidetracked and forgot to mention Exception 3, I think.]
"If you put your newspaper behind a tollgate you are going to have to provide content people think is unique,
worthwhile. You are going to have higher costs for things like site management, because people demand good quality
customer service and they lose their passwords and everything else. So from a publisher's point of view it has been
a nightmare in many smaller markets. You are going to have to have an expensive registration or payment system, and
that increases your costs for hardware and software."
Three smallish-cap Gold & Silver companies to put on your radar: Silver Standard Resources, Pan American Silver Corp., and Randgold Resources Ltd. When
these stocks start creeping onto the most actives list, you'll know the run is near the end, as I noted
at the end of last year's run.
SSRI, PAAS, GOLD
Gold continues to be in high demand, despite recent dollar strength.
Jerry Jasinowski, President of the National Association of Manufacturers, writes
in the Annual Labor Day Report: "China's
commitments to open its internal market and abide by international trade rules must be enforced. China must also allow its
currency to be set by the marketplace and end its practice of keeping its exchange rate hugely undervalued. It is time for
the Administration to get tough with the Chinese."
Hugely undervalued? Time to get tough? Sounds like someone is scared and wants protection. NAM surely doesn't want
a few to benefit at the expense of the many. ;-)
William Pesek, Jr. writes in his Bloomberg column today titled Warren Buffett, Sage of China Too?:
"U.S. fund managers are increasingly nibbling at Chinese shares. Wellington Management Co., which manages some Vanguard Group
funds, now owns about 7.2 percent of Hong Kong-traded shares in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, Asia's biggest
China's allure is clear enough: 8 percent growth, vibrant cities, a rapidly expanding population and an emerging middle class
hungry to amass wealth. It's also the world's fastest-growing energy market -- hence the appeal of PetroChina's shares."
Maureen Dowd writes in yesterday's New York Times: "By doing their high-risk, audacious sociological and political makeover
in Iraq, Bush officials and neocons hoped to drain the terrorist swamp in the long run. But in the short run, they have
created new terrorist-breeding swamps full of angry young Arabs who see America the same way Muslims saw Westerners in the
Crusades: as Christian expansionist imperialists motivated by piety and greed."
J. Hoberman writes in this week's Village Voice:
"DC 9/11 is ... the spectacle of Reagan in reverse: Rather than being a professional actor who
entered politics, Bush is a politician who has been reconfigured, packaged, and sold as a media star -- dialogue included."
"Ultimately, DC 9/11 is less a docudramatic account of historical events than a legitimizing allegory. In glamorizing a
living president, it is an opportunistic piece of political mythmaking -- a scenario that effectively bridges the highly irregular
maneuvering that brought a popular-vote loser to power in 2000 and the exaggerated, even fabricated, claims with which his
regime orchestrated the U.S. invasion of Iraq."
Currently on my Unusual Suspects quote sheet:
FLML, SMTC, APOL, TCGI, ICGE, TELM,
ASTM, BCON, CHINA, CIEN, FLEX, GERN,
IIJI, IVAN, MCDTA, MRVL, NPRO, PLAB,
PROX, SINA, UTSI.
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