Sunday, November 16
Stephen Roach recounts his recent Asian tour and worries about "a widespread presumption that there is nothing but upside to the region's
China-centric growth curve."
"Lee Kuan Yew admitted that nearly 50 years of Chinese isolation was almost a gift to the rest of Asia -- providing, in effect,
a window of opportunity for the region to develop and prosper without interference from the 'sleeping giant.'"
Posted at 2:26 PM, GMT
The bombings of two synagogues in Istanbul have made me consider changing
my Christmas plans. I planned to spend two weeks in Istanbul next month (LLP will be in Shanghai), but now I'm not sure what I'll do.
I've also been discouraged from going to Beirut and Tel Aviv (two places I'd like to visit).
Posted at 12:25 PM, GMT
Check out the London Tube map rendered in 3D.
Posted at 12:01 PM, GMT
Saturday, November 15
Linda Bradford Raschke on the importance of being aware of one's behavior:
"... if I am in a trade and it does not 'feel' right, even if it has not moved against me, I find myself gazing intently at the
screen, my breathing is a bit more shallow, and I hardly blink. Five minutes can pass by, and I will still be sitting in exactly
the same position in my chair."
More wisdom from Linda Bradford Raschke:
"... execution skills will ultimately play a large role in a trader's overall profitability. Constant practice getting in and out
of the market, even if it means scratching many trades, is key. Only with practice will a trader learn to get the 'feel' of placing his
orders at just the right time. And, frankly, it is only after a trader has made numerous trades that there is a lessening of the emotions
and anxieties that invariably go along with pulling the trigger."
"Most often, we find that there is a main trend for the day , and in this case, the market can be worked most efficiently when trading with a bias
to the long or short side for the day."
Posted at 10:25 PM, GMT
Robert Olstein gets it right in this week's Barron's:
"... I don't want to call the economy or the market. I just want to buy the right stocks at the right prices ... Lots of people buy what
they perceive to be great companies. But if you own a good company at the wrong price, you've got a bad stock."
Posted at 5:55 PM, GMT
From a story in the Wall Street Journal this week:
"After paying $35 in cash for the two dinners, Mr. Buffett prepared to drive his fellow billionaire [Bill Gates] back to the airport.
But his first new car in 10 years, a Lincoln Town Car whose license plate says 'THRIFTY,' wouldn't start. Mr. Gates says despite
their best efforts, neither he nor Mr. Buffett could unlock the steering wheel. So the two richest men in the U.S. were stranded
in Gorat's parking lot, until they called a taxi to pick them up."
Posted at 5:30 PM, GMT
Wise words from Stan Tamulevich:
"... countertrend rallies/reactions offer profitable trend trading opportunities once the countertrend move has run its course.
The key is in knowing when the move is complete and when the market is ready to resume the major trend, preferably with a vengeance ...
A properly placed stop serves as an entry point as the major trend resumes ... Often, the best way to re-enter a major trend,
is to stop yourself in as the trend resumes."
Posted at 4:25 PM, GMT
You can see how strong the Treasury Notes were at the end of the week. Good intraday entry is tough because of all the tricks,
traps, tests, fake-outs, pokes... whatever you want to call them. Stock index and bond futures are probably the last markets that
newbie traders should be in... and currencies? Fuggedaboutit.
Ten-Year Treasury Notes (ZN), 30-minute Chart
"Will you walk into my parlor?" said the spider to the fly;
" 'Tis the prettiest little parlor that ever you did spy.
The way into my parlor is up a winding stair,
And I have many pretty things to show when you are there."
"O no, no," said the little fly, "to ask me is in vain,
For who goes up your winding stair can ne'er come down again."
Posted at 1:02 PM, GMT
Jeremy Grantham was interviewed a few weeks ago in Barron's (yes, I just read it), and he made a good point about commodity prices
which few people think about:
"I always make a big fuss that there are only two commodity prices that have risen in the long run: fish and forestry.
What do they have in common? They started as free goods. When you start free and move to cultivation, that is known in the
trade as an infinite increasing cost. OK, it is an exaggeration but at least it makes the point that you can have a long,
steady increase in price. Fish and forestry have risen and everything else has gone down in price.
It doesn't matter whether it is oil or soybeans, they have all gone down in real terms. And they've gone down because even
those that have marginal increases in costs, such as oil, have had their productivity clock in a little higher than the
rising marginal costs of extraction."
Posted at 10:20 AM, GMT
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