Paul Desmond explains that his unweighted S&P 500 index is near new highs.
"Most investors rarely get to see a chart of the Russell 2000 or the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index . So, their perceptions and expectations
are based on the big-cap indexes. The general unimpressive patterns of the S&P 500 and NYSE indexes have caused investors to hold back
on their bullishness because the evidence provided by just a few of the biggest of the big-cap stocks seems to suggest that they think
we are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market."
I watch the Value Line Arithmetic Index, which is an equally weighted index of all of the stocks included in their Investment Survey.
It hit an all-time high this month... take a look. Isn't everybody aware of this?
The S&P MidCap
and SmallCap indexes are near all-time highs, Morgan Stanley's Healthcare Product, Healthcare Payor, and Cyclical indexes are too, as are
the Dow Jones Equity REIT, Nasdaq Financial 100 and the KBW Bank indexes.
Posted at 8:25 PM, GMT
Stephen Roach unironically quotes from Gibbons this week: "There exists in human nature a strong propensity to depreciate the advantages,
and to magnify the evils, of the present times."
Posted at 5:24 PM, GMT
Richard Bernstein, chief US strategist at Merrill Lynch (and fellow Hamiltonian), is catching flack for his bearishness (year-end target
of 880 for the S&P 500?). It's a nice contrary signal. The second they fire him, I'm selling. ;-)
Posted at 5:04 PM, GMT
James Poniewozik writes about the burgeoning American anger industry:
"At heart, the anger business is show business, which is why it's been so kind to comics like Franken and showmen like Limbaugh."
Entertaining ourselves to death, I guess.
Posted at 11:45 AM, GMT
A piece on General Clark in yesterday's NYTimes. While Dubya, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Feith, Perle etc.
(and Howard Dean) were conveniently avoiding Vietnam, Clark was shot
four times and
won a Silver Star in that war.
Posted at 11:05 AM, GMT
Caroline Baum reminds the dollar bears that we have a capital account as well as a current account, and quotes St.
Louis Fed President Poole on the relationship between the two:
"A common mistake is to treat international capital flows as though they are passively responding to what is
happening in the trade account. In fact, investors abroad buy U.S. assets not for the purpose
of financing the U.S. trade deficit but because they believe these assets are sound investments, promising a good
combination of safety and return."
Once again, I refer you to Jim Griffin's smart comments on
this issue... U.S. financial assets are the only game in town when it comes to doing size.
Posted at 10:19 AM, GMT
Among the sectors I follow, the Gold stocks have been the strongest year-over-year. There are three different gold sector indexes I watch:
The Gold BUGS Index (HUI) has been the strongest, gaining over 110% y-o-y. The HUI is outperforming so wildly in part
due to Golden Star Resources (GSS),
Bema Gold (BGO), and Coeur D'Alene (CDE), none of which are in the XAU or GOX.
These stocks have been rocking and rolling for a good long time now, but there's no way to know when the party will stop... the charts
aren't showing any signs of reversal yet.
Golden Star Resources, Weekly Chart
Kinross Gold, Weekly Chart
Posted at 9:06 AM, GMT
Subodh Atal writes that spending billions on nation-building isn't the way to deter Islamic extremists from joining
"Osama bin Laden is a millionaire ... Ayman Al-Zawahiri, was an Egyptian doctor raised in an upper-middle class family ...
Most of the 9/11 hijackers themselves were from middle-class families in Saudi Arabia. They did not fly planes into buildings
because of resentment over economic conditions in their homelands. They were not susceptible to recruitment by Al Qaeda because
they were homeless and jobless."
Posted at 7:40 AM, GMT
Previous Entry >>> Random Thoughts -- November 23