December 23, 2005


ETF to Watch: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)

EFA made the Notable New Highs list yesterday. Look at a list of year-to-date returns for equity markets outside the US (one of the back pages of the Economist magazine always provides a nice table) and you’ll be amazed by the numbers.

“The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.”

EFA

December 22, 2005


Lehman Acquires RealTick

Lehman Acquires Townsend Analytics, by Alexa Jaworski.

“Like others that have gone this route in the past couple of years — Citigroup with its acquisition of Lava Trading, Bank of New York with Sonic Trading, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. with Neovest — Lehman is underscoring its commitment to the ‘broker-neutrality’ of the acquired technology while claiming a strategic advantage for itself.”

I’ve always thought that the best thing about RealTick is its HotTrend scanner.


Stock to Watch: FedEx (FDX)

FedEx made the Notable New Highs list yesterday. I’ve posted the quarterly chart below to give you a little longer-term perspective.

“FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services worldwide. The company operates in four segments: FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, and FedEx Kinko’s.”

FDX

December 21, 2005


Stocks to Watch: General Motors (GM), Capital One Financial (COF)

I featured GM as a Notable New Low back on November 10th, and here it is again making another low. I’m worried about GM’s pension obligations, and you should be too. (One of the areas that I studied closely in business school was pensions, which was extremely fortunate since one of the major problems on my CPA exam had to do with pension accounting, and I nailed it.)

“General Motors Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of cars and light trucks worldwide. It operates through Automotive, and Financing and Insurance Operations (FIO) segments.”

GM

Capital One made the Notable New Highs list. Everyone knows that the newly bankrupt are among the best credit risks, and people who haven’t read The Merchant of Venice are never extended a “customer courtesy.”

“Capital One Financial Corporation operates as a holding company, which provides various consumer financial products and services, primarily in the United States. The company, through its subsidiary, Capital One Bank, offers credit card products and accepts retail deposits, including certificates of deposit, money market accounts, and individual retirement accounts. Its other subsidiary, Capital One, F.S.B. offers consumer and commercial lending, and consumer deposit products.”

COF

December 20, 2005


Describing My Internet Surfing Behavior

Bloglines is down today which made me realize what a large chunk of time I spend there. I thought it would be interesting to describe how dull my internet surfing behavior is. This list is in the order of places I go.

  • My Yahoo - this is my homepage and the first thing I see every day. I look at the Headlines from Reuters (Top Stories, Business, US Markets). I also look at Headlines from the New York Times, Washington Post, and BBC. I also check email at Yahoo which isn’t much since everyone now writes to me at:
  • Gmail - I have a personal email account for friends and family (which gets no spam) and a maoxian email account for acquaintances and spammers (Google catches almost all of the spam, thank god).
  • Google Adsense - I next look at my Adsense revenue to see if I broke the 50 cent mark for the day.
  • Sitemeter - I go here to see where my 12 daily visitors are coming from.
  • Bloglines - I review quite a few Headlines, Summaries, and Full Text posts from the various blogs that I follow. I only read a couple dozen blogs closely, but scanning their feeds can still take a lot of time, and if I find anything that looks interesting I post it to:
  • del.icio.us - A great online bookmark site; if I don’t have time to read something in full, or if I find something very cool, I’ll bookmark it here.
    I never ever bookmark anything to my browser anymore. (Yahoo! recently bought del.icio.us, which was a brilliant move.)
  • Anonymouse - If there are any things I have to read at sites that are blocked in China (which includes all typepad and blogspot sites), I use Anonymouse.
  • Wall Street Journal ($ - no link) - I scan the Headlines (”Today’s Print Edition”) and usually end up reading two or three articles in full (usually China-related). I also look at the Asian edition for small reports that didn’t make the US edition.

That’s it. Pretty boring, eh? Oh, and I never see any online ads because I use Firefox with the precious Adblock extension. When I’m forced to use Microsoft’s
Internet Explorer (in the coffeeshop for instance), I have to stop surfing after about three minutes because I’m being assaulted by ads that I can’t block — how revolting! If you haven’t switched to Firefox, you must be living on the moon.


Stock to Watch: TheStreet.com (TSCM)

TheStreet.com made my Notable New Highs list yesterday. I’ve posted the monthly chart below so you can see the price history since the company came public back in May 1999. There are a lot of amusing (horrifying) stories that Cramer tells about TSCM in his book, Confessions of a Street Addict. (I never visit TheStreet.com and wouldn’t dream of subscribing to RealMoney.)

TSCM

December 19, 2005


Interesting Bits from Barron’s - Week of December 19, 2005

Kathy Yakal wrote up footnoted.org in the Electronic Investor column this week. Michelle’s excellent blog has long been on my A-list.

Here are the bits I found interesting in this week’s issue of Barron’s:

“Monsanto’s flagship product, Roundup, is the No. 1 herbicide. The company estimates that over 70% of the world’s insect-resistant and herbicide-resistant crops bear its stamp.” — Shirley Lazo

“New demand for commercial aircraft is coming mainly from Asia, particularly from India and China, where airline deregulation is spurring a big travel boom. Asia as a whole is expected to remain strong, with China’s air traffic forecast to grow at 8.5% a year over the next 20 years, nearly double the average world rate.” — Jay Palmer

“Venezuela is America’s second-largest foreign supplier of refined petroleum products …. The United States of America is the world’s largest energy producer, consumer and net importer. Yet, it ranks 11th worldwide in reserves of oil and sixth in natural gas. The U.S. ranks first only in coal reserves.” — John Licata

“The Palestinian Stock Exchange… happens to sport the best returns in the region — a whopping 310% year-to-date gain. What would likely surprise American investors even more is that the PSE, which now has a market capitalization of around $5 billion, is as big or bigger than stock markets in seven of the 10 new European Union members, including Slovakia and Lithuania…. the PSE’s Website is www.p-s-e.com.”
– Vito Racanelli

“Today, just 40% of visitors stay one night in a hotel in Macau — so few that, tellingly, Wynn and MGM are building hotels with just 600 rooms each. Were every visitor to spend the night, the city would need 20,000 additional hotel rooms, up from 9,000 now, reckons CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, a research firm. Two nights: 50,000 more. …. CLSA Asia Pacific Markets expects visitor arrivals, which totaled 16.7 million last year, to surge to 35.2 million in 2010. A key: 100 million people live within a three-hour drive, and some are swiftly getting richer.” — Leslie Norton

“Irving Kahn will be 100 this Monday …. He’s in the office every business day, reading scientific periodicals, annual reports and newspapers in search of undervalued stocks …. In warm weather, he walks the mile from his apartment on Manhattan’s Upper East Side to the firm’s offices on Madison Avenue and 55th Street. On a cold recent afternoon, this reporter rode on a city bus with Kahn from his office to his home. Although his firm would gladly pick up the tab for a car service, Kahn finds the $25 cost ‘obscene,’ relative to the senior-citizen bus fare of $1 …. ‘Irving is a voracious reader. He reads several newspapers a day, plus numerous scientific journals’ …. ‘The thing that makes our style different from the typical firm is that we read much more broadly outside Wall Street on subjects like science and technology to locate trends that are not obvious,’ Irving says. ‘One reason that it’s hard for many people to manage money is that they’re influenced by what other people do. Buffett’s not like that’ …. ‘My dad says he doesn’t have time to read fiction,’ Tom Kahn says. ‘I remember as a kid he would come home with a briefcase full of annual reports. His business is his hobby. He doesn’t play golf or bridge, and he gave up tennis a while ago.’” — Andrew Bary

“The economy in this country appears to be slowing. But that doesn’t mean it is slowing every place in the world and the big shift in our view is to think about the United States as being a part of the world economy …. As the world matures, the first thing developing countries need is raw materials. The next thing they need is some form of infrastructure technology …. Much of what state capitalism is paying for is real basic: clean water, electricity and roads. And a lot of the participants are U.S. capital goods or cyclical companies …. [explaining ‘intermodal integration’]: if you go to Target and buy something, Target sends the dollars back to China and China sends the dollars back to the Treasury and the merchandise is put together in China, the container comes across the Pacific and is offloaded on the West Coast, picked up in its container by the railroad. The railroad takes it to a distribution area where it is sorted out and truckers pick it up and take it to the various Target or Wal-Mart centers or whatever. At that point, the merchandise is broken up further and sent to whatever store needs certain items, say, for Christmas …. You have to think of this increasing worldwide trade as a super logistics play.” — Interview with Susan Byrne by Sandra Ward [I love the line: ‘Target sends the dollars back to China and China sends the dollars back to the Treasury.’
Susan Byrne is sharp and clearly “gets it.”]

Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


Sugar’s Sweet Run Near an End

The huge move put in by sugar finally got a mention in Barron’s, so I assume the end is near. Trend followers have been long continuously since last June.

SB

Sugar futures (March 2006), Daily Chart

December 16, 2005


Third Ring Road at 5:30 PM

The other day I promised to take a picture of the traffic on Beijing’s Third Ring Road during rush hour, so here it is. Yes, it’s a crummy shot, and I agree that the traffic isn’t that bad, but today is Friday (when traffic is usually much worse) so I might try to take another picture tonight. The important point I’m trying to make is that a decade ago almost none of these cars were here. (Sales of privately owned family vehicles rose from just 640,000 in 2000 to 3.1 million in 2005.)

This is the eastern part of the Third Ring Road, and I’m looking northeast. (I have a corner office about 20 stories up). The tall building in the upper left of the photo is Jingguang Zhongxin, a very early skyscraper in Beijing. This part of the city used to be almost completely bare except for Jingguang Zhongxin and GuoMao (China World Trade Center), but now there are dozens of tall buildings here, filled with people, many of whom unfortunately choose to drive to work.

traffic

Stock to Watch — 24/7 Real Media (TFSM)

24/7 Real Media made my Notable New Highs list yesterday, breaking out on over three times average volume.

“24/7 Real Media, Inc. and its subsidiaries offer a suite of media services, and software products and services for the online advertising needs of Web publishers and advertisers. It offers Web representation, search marketing services, advertisement serving and targeting, analytics, and audience management. The company operates in three segments: Media Solutions, Search Solutions, and Technology Solutions. 24/7 Real Media is headquartered in New York City.”

TFSM did a reverse five-for-one stock split in February 2004, so the reverse-split-adjusted high for the stock, hit back in April 1999, is around $350 a share, and the all-time low is $0.45 (that’s 9 cents a share without the reverse split), which was hit shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attack. Once again, if you bought during the mania you were wiped out, but if you bought at the gloomy depths you are making a fortune.

TFSM

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