Monday, July 4
Chat Transcript for Sunday, July 3, 2005
Thanks to the handful of chatters who showed up on this long holiday weekend... here's the complete transcript for the 195 regular participants who couldn't make it:
Posted on July 4, 2005 at 8:30, GMT
| CMaoxian | hey chud |
| chud | hi chairman |
| chud | nice call on the swn this week |
| CMaoxian | did it do something special? |
| chud | it was up quite a bit |
| CMaoxian | hi manggo |
| manggo | hi all |
| chud | 16% |
| chud | last mango in paris |
| CMaoxian | oh good, the maoxian effect, obviously ;-) |
| chud | maoxian effect is stronger every week |
| CMaoxian | well when prices are at all-time highs there are no "natural" sellers, so the path of least resistance is up |
| chud | chairman. i know you like raschke. what do you think of her charging big bucks to sit in her chatroom? |
| chud | why do market wizards need to do that? |
| maximus | hey everyone |
| CMaoxian | hey max |
| manggo | Hi max |
| CMaoxian | it's another source of income for her and probably a nice way to have company during the day |
| manggo | chariman, what is Fuzzy? |
| chud | trend following system |
| CMaoxian | Fuzzy is a mechanical trend-following system, manggo |
| manggo | oic, How can I get them? |
| chud | proprietary stuff |
| chud | although last i heard available for $10Mil |
| CMaoxian | it's best if you develop your own, manggo |
| manggo | will try |
| chud | you considered automating the execution chairman? |
| CMaoxian | yes chud, but it's a pain and i'm a control freak |
| koain | hi |
| chud | hi koain. you're the undertaker's bro huh? |
| 6thworld | good evening all |
| CMaoxian | hi koain |
| CMaoxian | hey 6th |
| CMaoxian | I've got about five charts to post tonight... |
| CMaoxian | the first is Aetna: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| chud | bad experiences with aetna. i can't support those people |
| CMaoxian | their bottom line has been growing nicely these last several years |
| CMaoxian | prolly earn $5.30 a share next year |
| CMaoxian | well chud, all insurance companies leave a bad taste |
| chud | yes. usaa is fine company to deal with for auto though. never had any good experiences with health insurance cos. |
| CMaoxian | UnitedHealth is another one to keep an eye on: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | again beautiful bottom line growth lo these many years |
| CMaoxian | prolly earn 2.85 a share next year |
| CMaoxian | these guys have been repurchasing their own shares like mad |
| CMaoxian | next one to keep on your radar, WellPoint: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | hi asia |
| Isasia1 | hi guys sorry im late |
| CMaoxian | once again lovely bottom line growth at WLP |
| CMaoxian | WLP went public in late 2001 as you can see from the chart and has done very well since then |
| CMaoxian | the last two companies are both in the hospital business |
| CMaoxian | the first is Community Health: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | another recent IPO (2000) and the bottom line numbers over the last five years are great |
| chud | 30% 3 yr earnings growth |
| CMaoxian | one number folks look at when considering hospitals is how much revenue is medicare/medicaid based, and in CYH's case I think it's pretty small |
| CMaoxian | i should say relatively small compared to urban hospitals |
| CMaoxian | ok, final chart: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | you can see that TRI broke to a new high this year, did the typical drop back to "new support," and hasn't really looked back since |
| CMaoxian | Triad is another owner of hospitals in small cities |
| CMaoxian | the bottom line growth yet again is the stuff of dreams |
| CMaoxian | folks tend to forget that it's the fundamentals that draw the chart |
| CMaoxian | ok i'm done yacking about charts, anyone catch the Wimbledon women's finals? |
| CMaoxian | i was sad to see Sharapova knocked out because she's cute and i like her body language |
| chud | people watch tennis now that anna's retired? |
| CMaoxian | sharapova is apparently the new anna, and unlike anna this girl can actually play |
| chud | anna wasn't as bad as people made her out to be. victim of her looks. |
| CMaoxian | hey tom |
| tom | hello cs |
| CMaoxian | yes chud, when i think of anna, i think victim |
| Isasia1 | lol cmao |
| CMaoxian | it was a good battle between lindsay and venus though, and it was too bad that lindsay's back gave out at a key moment |
| chud | loser's limp? |
| Isasia1 | yep i thimk the minute lindsey lost the second set it was over |
| Isasia1 | she should have had |
| Isasia1 | it then |
| chud | i always get lindsay confused with rosie odonnel |
| CMaoxian | anyone have any daytrades or other stuff they want to review? |
| tom | cs, do you think CNOOC should be restricted from bidding for Unocal being they're 71% Chinese gov. owned? |
| CMaoxian | is it lindsey or lindsay? |
| CMaoxian | no, tom |
| chud | lindsay |
| CMaoxian | they hit much harder now (i haven't watched women's tennis in years) |
| chud | are you daytrading nowadays chairman? |
| CMaoxian | no chud |
| Isasia1 | cmao is anything coming out regarding yuan revaluation over there |
| Isasia1 | snow said this weekend china wud revalue in the next few months |
| CMaoxian | there's a lotta talk asia, but no action |
| chud | any plans to get back at it? still thinking about futures? |
| Isasia1 | but i think it was to stop the senate starting a trade war |
| CMaoxian | obviously the yuan has to be revalued at some point, we just don't know when |
| Isasia1 | yep |
| CMaoxian | yes chud, i will prolly start trading again (futures mainly) at the end of this year |
| Isasia1 | well if its not soon think the us will start putting tariffs on |
| Isasia1 | cud get ugly for stocks |
| CMaoxian | there's a lot of hot money here now (one of the reasons the property market is so nuts) and that's a shame cuz it makes the reval harder |
| Isasia1 | yep chinese in a tough position i think |
| CMaoxian | i posted a chart one time of the yen, lemme find it |
| CMaoxian | folks forget how long the yen was pegged at an unrealistic rate |
| Isasia1 | yep yen was above 200 in the 80's right |
| CMaoxian | here it is: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | i'm talking from '49 to '71, asia |
| CMaoxian | post-war era |
| Isasia1 | yes indeed good point mao |
| CMaoxian | asia why is your shorthand so good, were you a court reporter? |
| chud | my best daytrade this week was LIOX on 6/28. i'd be interested to hear what some of you would've done with your stop on that. |
| CMaoxian | great chud, lemme take a look |
| Isasia1 | no i was an interbank market maker |
| Isasia1 | in currencies |
| Isasia1 | for 10 years |
| CMaoxian | did that require shorthand? |
| Isasia1 | 90% of trades went thru a reuters machine |
| Isasia1 | v similair to this |
| Isasia1 | kind of an im before the internet |
| CMaoxian | ok |
| Isasia1 | u had to type v quickly when u traded or they changed the price |
| CMaoxian | i like it |
| CMaoxian | it's a miracle that reuters had a lock on that market for so long (and still does to some extent i guess) |
| Isasia1 | yep |
| Isasia1 | them and ebs |
| CMaoxian | when you read about how completely clueless reuters management was, it makes you wonder |
| Isasia1 | yes indeed they were useless |
| Isasia1 | where did u exit chud ? |
| chud | i got in after the 2nd 15 min. bar. exited half after the 4th bar since i considered that "windfall" profit. |
| chud | exited the rest at end of day. |
| Isasia1 | nice |
| chud | wondering what you guys would have done |
| Isasia1 | was it you who was talking abt taking profits quicker last week ? |
| chud | yes. |
| CMaoxian | ok i'm looking at it now chud |
| Isasia1 | cool |
| chud | i made an effort to take half profits when i covered my risk this week |
| CMaoxian | definitely an unusual suspect |
| CMaoxian | i'm not a big fan of entering above the 9:45 bar, but to each his own |
| CMaoxian | but that was a nice inside bar, about 25 cents initial risk? |
| chud | yes |
| chud | you're calling the 2nd bar 9:45? |
| CMaoxian | i guess i should say 10 o'clock bar, it depends on if you're talking when the bar starts or ends ;-) |
| chud | yea i get confused |
| CMaoxian | metastock stamps them all at the beginning so it can get confusing |
| chud | you like waiting til 10:15? |
| CMaoxian | yes chud |
| CMaoxian | anyway that's neither here nor there, it was a nice entry chud |
| CMaoxian | i guess taking part off the table with that windfall (and yes i'd call that a windfall) was smart |
| Isasia1 | yes indeed |
| CMaoxian | what were the actual entry and exit prices |
| CMaoxian | any slippage getting in? |
| chud | entry 5.88 |
| chud | exit 6.52 |
| Isasia1 | not bad for a few hrs work |
| chud | nope. too bad i was only risking 50 bucks |
| CMaoxian | the method is what matters chud, not the size |
| chud | i'm very pleased with my fills at IB so far |
| CMaoxian | stop limit in? |
| chud | yes. i've reduced my size while i work on the method. |
| chud | just stop |
| CMaoxian | great! the best thing to do is play small until the confidence grows |
| CMaoxian | was it 5.86 stop, filled at 5.88? |
| chud | i've been so happy with the fills vs. scottrade i've been entering with stops . |
| CMaoxian | yes, well scottrade prolly sells their order flow to NITE or someone so.... |
| Isasia1 | do u always enter with stops chud ? |
| chud | yes that sounds right. actually half was filled at 5.87 and half at 5.89 |
| Isasia1 | do u always stop into a position i shud say |
| chud | yep. been entering with stops lately. |
| chud | you think i should move to stop limits? |
| Isasia1 | no not at all |
| Isasia1 | just interested because i used to stop into everything |
| Isasia1 | but been trying different entry methods recently |
| chud | i've been using smart routing, stop entry. |
| CMaoxian | the EOD exit woulda been around 6.75 i guess |
| chud | 6.82. i was happy with myself for that exit. |
| chud | used a limit and got a nice price. |
| CMaoxian | i said 6.75 cuz i dunno what the B/A looked like at the close |
| chud | yea. 6.82 was the highest trade in the last few minutes i remember. |
| CMaoxian | that thing was super liquid that morning chud, so a stop limit no doubt unnecessary |
| chud | ok. will use limits on the less liquid ones |
| CMaoxian | did you use a scanner to spot it? |
| CMaoxian | don't trade anything less liquid than that ;-) |
| Isasia1 | does anyone here look at or trade 10 or 30 yr treasuries ? |
| CMaoxian | i look at them asia, yes |
| chud | one of qcharts hot lists spotted with a high trade rate and %gain |
| CMaoxian | great chud |
| chud | was also on nasdaq.com's gapping page. |
| Isasia1 | yes cmao remeber u mentioned the last move up a while ago |
| chud | my qcharts trial ran out. i'm gonna start etrade trial tues. if i can get their software to stop crashing me. |
| Isasia1 | wondered if ud been looking at it the last few days |
| Isasia1 | quite interesting action |
| chud | i love qcharts program but their network is terrible. |
| CMaoxian | here's the LIOX 15-minute chart: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| Isasia1 | at what point wud u consider it a valid reversal of the uptrend in price c mao ? |
| CMaoxian | i'm getting the chart up now asia, one sec |
| CMaoxian | yes chud, the qcharts interface is *still* the best out there by a mile, but as you say, the data service is often poor |
| chud | i find myself looking for a faster server way too often |
| CMaoxian | did the bonds trade at all on friday? |
| Isasia1 | yes |
| CMaoxian | then my data isn't complete, i can just see thru thursday ;-) |
| Isasia1 | ahh ok |
| Isasia1 | the 30 year close at 117.49 |
| Isasia1 | the 10 year closed at 112.70 |
| CMaoxian | fuzzy exited the long after that Thursday gap down... i look at the 10 yr primarily asia |
| CMaoxian | 112.70 ouch |
| Isasia1 | yep |
| CMaoxian | well i'm pretty sure if i had the data the fuzz woulda held short through all that crunch |
| Isasia1 | looks like 4 succesive lower lows to me |
| Isasia1 | im trying not to overthink it |
| Isasia1 | i mean lower highs sorry |
| CMaoxian | i don't think at all (according to my wife) |
| Isasia1 | i think too much (according to mine) |
| CMaoxian | wanna swap? |
| Isasia1 | women are never happy |
| Isasia1 | yep ill put mine on the plane |
| chud | what do you guys think of trading offices that let you put up some money and trade with their capital? would i get good experience there or would i be better off working alone and keeping my night job? |
| Isasia1 | work alone chud |
| Isasia1 | my opinion |
| CMaoxian | well you'd have to be sure they weren't going to fold up and make off with your money |
| chud | yes i was worried about that too |
| CMaoxian | one telltale sign of trouble is when they're called Vito and Luigi's Shoe Emporium and Trading Arcade |
| chud | ha |
| Isasia1 | yeah and if they come round with collection tin to pay the electricity bill then thats bad too |
| CMaoxian | the bonds have been darn confusing, for both me and that guy named Greenspan |
| chud | wonder if allan will be daytrading bonds next year |
| Isasia1 | yes theres been a lot of money lost on prop desks and hedge funds this year on the bonds |
| CMaoxian | one sec, baby poo alert |
| Isasia1 | lots of lazy shorts |
| chud | do you use fundamentals or technicals with bonds asia? |
| Isasia1 | i have a core fundamental view but wait for technicals to align which has saved me a lot of money this year |
| Isasia1 | the core fundamentalists have got hammered |
| CMaoxian | yeah a core fundie view on the bonds would have made one lose money hand over fist |
| Isasia1 | likewise for the dollar |
| CMaoxian | that's why guys like Roach make millions *writing* instead of trading |
| Isasia1 | you got it |
| CMaoxian | Stephen "the Ultimate Post-Bubble Payback" Roach! |
| Isasia1 | funnily enough he recently capitulated on his us bond short position |
| Isasia1 | 'position' |
| CMaoxian | YES AND I'M TERRIFIED THAT HE SWITCHED |
| Isasia1 | and went long |
| chud | is fuzzy long gold? |
| CMaoxian | i've been trying to date his switch so i can post a chart marking the absolute top in the bonds |
| Isasia1 | lol |
| CMaoxian | Fuzzy hasn't looked at gold in ages, what's the front month? i'll check what he has to say |
| Isasia1 | hes also much more bullish on the global economy than he was 6 months or a year ago |
| Isasia1 | when he was death warmed over |
| Isasia1 | sorry whos fuzzy ? |
| Isasia1 | or is it a system |
| CMaoxian | a system |
| Isasia1 | ok long term i guess |
| chud | sorry i dont know the front month. i've just been looking at the ETF. |
| CMaoxian | Roach might finally be feeling heat from mgmt or something |
| tom | Aug 05 for gold |
| Isasia1 | very likely cmao |
| CMaoxian | good point, i can look at GLD and see what's happening |
| chud | thanks tom |
| Isasia1 | which is an even better indication of a top |
| Isasia1 | because management are clueless |
| CMaoxian | you know i've been doing a lot of reading of old articles for my new sentiment indicator and i found one in july 2002 |
| CMaoxian | where Roach said THE CARNAGE HAS JUST BEGUN |
| CMaoxian | and i thought hang on the naz down 83.5%, the sp down over 50%, when is this guy gonna be satisfied? |
| Isasia1 | THE CARNAGE ( in his reputation ) |
| CMaoxian | if he loses his job at MS he can always become an announcer for the WWF |
| Isasia1 | well with the nas down 83.5% |
| Isasia1 | he was probably just about in the money |
| Isasia1 | from his original bearish call in 1997 |
| chud | is the new sentiment indicator a manual process? |
| Isasia1 | or whenever |
| chud | yes. jim ross loves "the CARNAGE" |
| CMaoxian | i didn't forget about Gold i'm just getting data |
| chud | and "slobberknocker" |
| Isasia1 | so he was probably doubling up ! |
| CMaoxian | no chud, it uses software but i invariably fiddle |
| chud | ok |
| CMaoxian | Stephen "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" Roach |
| CMaoxian | oh dear my charts are crashing, i'll have to post that Gold chart later, asia |
| CMaoxian | look for it in the transcript |
| Isasia1 | oki doki |
| CMaoxian | Here's the Hourly Gold ETF (GLD) chart, latest Fuzz short below $43.50: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | any parting thoughts, comments, suggestions? |
| chud | if i'm doing a dummy trade off the daily chart, what time frame should i use for placing my stop |
| CMaoxian | appreciate you guys coming by on this holiday weekend |
| chud | because placing it based on the daily seems to be taking away much of my gains |
| tom | thanks for having us |
| Isasia1 | indeed |
| CMaoxian | i'd place the ini stop off the daily chud, but maybe go to an intraday chart to tighten it up if you're skittish |
| Isasia1 | above/below the opening hours range ? |
| CMaoxian | above/below signif swings, asia |
| chud | been entering stop above a narrow range daily bar. stop loss below daily bar. for longs. |
| Isasia1 | fair enuff |
| chud | maybe i'll try 60 min. chart for moving my stop up. |
| CMaoxian | the thing about trading off the daily chud is it requires a diff mental state than daytrading (one i'm not comf with) |
| Isasia1 | well just for grins i am going to call for a top in the dollar this week |
| chud | yes. i'm not comf. with the chance of gaps against me. |
| CMaoxian | i hope you're right asia |
| CMaoxian | yes, chud, and the whole waiitng days and days for things to work out or not, i can't take the stress |
| Isasia1 | yep well see im sure were close |
| Isasia1 | not sure how close |
| CMaoxian | at least Buffett is unconcerned, asia |
| chud | yea chairman. i thought it may provide a better winning percentage than daytrades. but so far i'm wrong. |
| chud | i need a high win % for confidence. maybe i should learn a scalp technique |
| CMaoxian | it'll prolly give you the same percentages chud, and about a million times the stress |
| Isasia1 | yes hes short so much higher i dont think he cares |
| CMaoxian | or as asia suggested, take partial profits and move to B/E in a flash |
| chud | yep. that's been helping. thanks for that advice asia. |
| Isasia1 | no probs |
| Isasia1 | mental capital |
| CMaoxian | Buffett's short entry was a thing of beauty and proves that he's a master of timing (no matter how much he may play that down) |
| Isasia1 | just as important as financial |
| CMaoxian | plus you retain more hair |
| Isasia1 | yeah he aint stupid that guy |
| chud | when did he go short? |
| CMaoxian | Buffett began buying Euro forward contracts at 0.86, chud |
| CMaoxian | his calculated folksiness is pure genius |
| Isasia1 | i was just abt to say the exact same thing mao |
| Isasia1 | the whole im just a regular guy from nebraska schtick |
| CMaoxian | ok guys, thanks for coming by, baby wants to have his morning exercise |
| chud | thanks for the chat |
| Isasia1 | cheers mao have a good one |
| CMaoxian | bye guys |
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