Monday, July 11
Chat Transcript for Sunday, July 10, 2005
Once again I had to run out a bit prematurely, but here's the transcript from our chat that lasted an hour or so. Thanks to everyone who participated.
Posted on July 11, 2005 at 8:00, GMT
| toc | Hi, is there a stock chat tonight? |
| CMaoxian | hi keke, toc |
| CMaoxian | yes toc, we're just waiting for the roster to fill up |
| toc | ok, going into lurk mode for now then |
| keke | how many are we expecting? |
| CMaoxian | we're expecting 200 but may fall about 190 short |
| keke | haha |
| CMaoxian | hi strain |
| CMaoxian | hi squeaky |
| CMaoxian | are you guys coming via TraderMike? |
| squeaky | hi there! |
| squeaky | yes, I am |
| keke | not directly, I find your site through him, but found out about THIS chat through your site today |
| CMaoxian | ok thx |
| CMaoxian | i'm not sure if sunday night is the best time for a chat, but it works for me |
| keke | how many readers does he have? |
| CMaoxian | i think tradermike gets around 1500 uniques a day |
| CMaoxian | i get about 15 |
| keke | haha |
| keke | wow |
| keke | how does he get so many |
| fyms | i get 10 |
| CMaoxian | he's smart about networking |
| CMaoxian | i tend to drive people away ;-) |
| keke | lol, fyms, what school you go to, it says yourin college? |
| fyms | yeah |
| CMaoxian | hi zoomie bill fyms |
| fyms | i goto uc berkeley |
| CMaoxian | Urine College? |
| fyms | going to be a junior next yr |
| keke | hows your account been doing? |
| CMaoxian | one of my favorite T-shirts of all time is the one with a fancy crest that says CATATONIC STATE |
| fyms | rough start, but its picking up |
| fyms | especially the last few weeks |
| CMaoxian | hi prez |
| prezjeff | hello |
| CMaoxian | last week i wrote about the Ugly Scan, that is: looking for small cap stocks that are breaking out of consolidations to new highs on unusual volume |
| keke | did that stock TCOW come up? |
| keke | that thing had a ton of relative volume looking at the weekly |
| CMaoxian | is it an S&P SmallCap 600 component? |
| keke | no |
| keke | its an OTC |
| keke | it came up on one of my scans |
| scoot | hi |
| CMaoxian | then i didn't see it because it's not part of the scanned universe |
| CMaoxian | hey scoot |
| keke | oh alright, sorry |
| CMaoxian | so anyway the bad news is nothing turned up in the scans this week |
| CMaoxian | but i did find half a dozen charts that we can review |
| keke | ok |
| hw3 | hi chairman |
| CMaoxian | hi hw |
| CMaoxian | we can start with Frontier Oil |
| CMaoxian |  |
| hw3 | hi all |
| CMaoxian | hit CTRL+ the link if it doesn't open |
| fyms | wow! |
| hw3 | i miss 99% of the sunday chat |
| fyms | nice pennant |
| CMaoxian | FTO has moved more or less straight up this year |
| hw3 | is there a math method to define triangle breakout ? |
| CMaoxian | to put the move in perspective, they earned $0.02 a share in 2002 and will prolly earn $3 a share this year |
| CMaoxian | you mean a measured move, hw? |
| hw3 | i am thinking to code this pattern |
| karin | good evening |
| fyms | don't pennants show up in standard stock screens? |
| hw3 | hi karin |
| fyms | i use that one in stockcharts |
| CMaoxian | i think there is a measured move, project the widest part of the triangle up above the breakout |
| keke | i use stockcharts also |
| keke | pretty good i think |
| CMaoxian | but like 99% of "technical analysis" it's probably nonsense |
| keke | not too expensive |
| keke | yeah |
| keke | i agree |
| karin | agree |
| keke | I only use 2 indicators at most, MAs, BBs, PV |
| karin | but it makes you feel better |
| CMaoxian | FTO is a refiner in case you didn't know |
| keke | yep |
| keke | CMao-what tools of TA do you use, just price volume? |
| keke | and patterns? |
| fyms | what does BB/PV mean |
| CMaoxian | the market cap of FTO has grown so much of late i guess you can't really call it small cap any more |
| hw3 | but for thousands stocks and other products, need a smart wayto figure out this kind of pattern , I am lazy... |
| keke | bollinger bands, price, volume |
| fyms | oh ok |
| CMaoxian | yes keke |
| keke | whys that? |
| CMaoxian | because i'm a simpleton and too much info overloads my brain |
| CMaoxian | i need a nice clean chart to look at |
| CMaoxian | start cluttering it with lines and studies and i go cross-eyed |
| keke | i find it hard to interpret price and i find it's easier to put the current into perspective w/ what i mentioned before |
| karin | yeah...if a child can see if the stock is going up or down |
| karin | or sideways |
| karin | simple |
| CMaoxian | Next chart to consider, Southwest Gas: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | i should have talked about this one in the energy chat a couple weeks ago |
| hw3 | i am coding a program to scan all stocks , i name it as pvm project, price volume spike. if a stock has huge volume than 3 days before, for example the ratio is 3-500% and volume > 1M , will pick it up . does it make sense ? |
| keke | on the daily and weekly SWX looks to have some resistance right? |
| CMaoxian | i guess so, hw |
| CMaoxian | i think it's at a new high, keke |
| karin | nice triangle |
| CMaoxian | SWX's fundamentals don't look great (they missed Q1 earnings badly), but the chart looks fine, so.... |
| keke | no, it bounced back of 26.35 resistance |
| CMaoxian | SWX distributes gas in the southwestern US in case you didn't know |
| keke | off |
| CMaoxian | hi chud |
| chud | hi chairman |
| karin | I started a new position last week: TLM |
| CMaoxian | looks like the measured move for SWX is a move to $35, but who knows when it will get there |
| CMaoxian | or if |
| keke | why that level? |
| CMaoxian | i just eyeballed the distance of the triangle up above the breakout |
| keke | karin-long or shot? |
| karin | long |
| karin | possible takeover |
| karin | by EXXON, BP |
| CMaoxian | the next chart is a beauty, Florida Rock |
| CMaoxian |  |
| keke | i have trouble entering trades on stocks that are very overextended that haven't shown weakness |
| CMaoxian | looking at FRK's bottom line grow over the last 15 years, it's a thing of beauty |
| fyms | what does FRK do |
| CMaoxian | think Florida housing market and then think crushed stone, gravel, sand |
| CMaoxian | and ready-mix concrete |
| CMaoxian | they'll prolly earn $2.30 a share next year |
| CMaoxian | this is another one that Jimmy Rogers and the housing bears should get short |
| CMaoxian | hi ucla |
| uclatrader | hello, chairman |
| keke | chairman whats your opinion on TLB, if you have one? |
| uclatrader | my opinion? |
| CMaoxian | i'll come back to that when i'm done featuring the charts, keke |
| keke | thanks |
| CMaoxian | here's one that looks like a breakout but isn't very inspired, Pre-Paid Legal |
| CMaoxian |  |
| uclatrader | chairman, r u still shopping bj apartment? |
| CMaoxian | we're in the negotiating stage, ucla |
| CMaoxian | do you have one to sell? |
| uclatrader | no, cuz i m thinking to buy one as well |
| CMaoxian | didn't Herbie Greenberg rant about PPD back in the day? |
| scoot | seems like the volume is really low |
| CMaoxian | yes, scoot |
| CMaoxian | but it is at an all-time high nevertheless |
| CMaoxian | as an investment, ucla? |
| uclatrader | nah, as my nest in bj |
| scoot | check out VSA |
| CMaoxian | i have one more chart to post then i can look at these other things |
| scoot | VSR i mean |
| CMaoxian | last chart, Steak N Shake |
| fyms | prepaid legal!! |
| fyms | i love PPD |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | i should have talked about Steak N Shake during our restaurant chat of several weeks ago |
| scoot | i remember looking at sns a couple years ago |
| hw3 | cm, there is a good apartment in south east 4rd ring , rmb 6500 per square, end of this year to move in |
| CMaoxian | i need to be within CBD, hw |
| hw3 | i c |
| uclatrader | u love cbd? why has to be in cbd? |
| CMaoxian | anyone ever eaten at a steak n shake? |
| CMaoxian | i need to be able to walk to Uncle Morty's office |
| scoot | no but i heard it was good |
| CMaoxian | Average check is $6.37 so it sounds cheap |
| CMaoxian | the chart looks like it may want to bust-a-move |
| CMaoxian | if it pops out of the box |
| keke | thats like IHOP with the cheap checks |
| scoot | yeah i'll put it on my watch |
| CMaoxian | this is highly technical analysis, i know ;-) |
| CMaoxian | sounds like Friendly's to me, waited tables but super low checks |
| CMaoxian | the absolute last place you'd ever want to be a waiter/waitress |
| CMaoxian | hey red |
| hw3 | all, have to leave |
| hw3 | c u |
| CMaoxian | thanks for coming by, hw |
| uclatrader | wut else have u post b4 ppd and sns, chairman? |
| RedEyes | Hi CMao and everyone |
| uclatrader | hi, red |
| CMaoxian | steak n shake is all midwest/southeast so i've never been to (or even seen) one |
| CMaoxian | they'll be in the transcript, ucla, but FTO, FRK, SWX |
| uclatrader | thanx, chairman |
| CMaoxian | does Friendly's still exist? |
| bill | SNS is stainless steel and black and white checked tile. Like a diner. Food is OK for burgers and fries. |
| CMaoxian | thx bill |
| Isasia1 | evening all |
| CMaoxian | hi asia |
| uclatrader | isn't fto too late to get in now? |
| CMaoxian | it's mighty stretched, yes, ucla |
| squeaky | yes, there are still a few Friendly's around |
| CMaoxian | if you buy into the super spike theory then these are early days |
| CMaoxian | thx squeaky, it used to be a big deal to go to Friendly's when i was a kid |
| squeaky | me too |
| CMaoxian | the take-away window in the summer, sit on a picnic table and eat your precious cone |
| CMaoxian | ok let me look at those other dogs folks mentioned |
| CMaoxian | TLB and VSR? |
| keke | yes |
| CMaoxian | Talbot's |
| keke | yea |
| CMaoxian | a name that strikes fear into every husband's heart |
| keke | I was thinking short side |
| karin | prefer CHS |
| karin | Talbots is fuddy duddy |
| CMaoxian | well it's definitely an underperforming retailer |
| CMaoxian | yes karin, very frumpy i thought |
| karin | very much |
| CMaoxian | and the prices! made both me and Uncle Morty run screaming for our lives |
| karin | yeah |
| karin | Chico's on the other hand |
| karin | they know their customers |
| 6thworld | good evening all |
| CMaoxian | i can only go by where my Mom and Sister go |
| karin | great deals, great couponjs |
| keke | what do you think of the TLB chart? |
| scoot | hi 6th |
| CMaoxian | Chico's and Coldwater Creek and J. Jill |
| 6thworld | hi scoot |
| RedEyes | hi 6th |
| uclatrader | wut bout ur wife? wut brand does she like? |
| CMaoxian | i think it sucks, keke |
| 6thworld | hi redeyes |
| keke | good |
| keke | im short a little. |
| karin | I like CHS |
| karin | shop there all the time |
| CMaoxian | my wife is very sensible about clothes which means she doesn't often buy them |
| keke | shorted on the two spikes of the week |
| karin | everything flies right out of the store |
| uclatrader | does it mean u buy for her? hehehe |
| CMaoxian | last time we were in the US my wife did go to Chico's and some other places and found some stuff to buy unfortunately |
| uclatrader | hahaha |
| karin | haha |
| CMaoxian | i sat outside in the sun on a bench and prayed |
| CMaoxian | with the other suffering husbands |
| karin | but honestly, the stuff is chic, reasonable, easy to take care off and wonderful to travel with |
| CMaoxian | yes karin |
| karin | what more do you want |
| uclatrader | hahaha, u r funny chairman |
| CMaoxian | specialty retail is tough though, you never know which way the wind will blow |
| uclatrader | only bring her to the supermarket as i do to my gf:) |
| keke | yeah, i am just short for a shorter term trade |
| karin | true chairman |
| 6thworld | what small caps did you guys chat about already? |
| keke | i think its going to 30ish |
| CMaoxian | my wife also likes Ann Taylor |
| karin | but chico's stuff is also very forgiving |
| keke | under 30 |
| 6thworld | CM: my wife likes Ann Taylor too |
| karin | yes |
| karin | nice stuff |
| karin | but you wait for deals |
| CMaoxian | VSR, scoot? |
| 6thworld | I get nervous when she drags me to Woodbury Commons |
| scoot | yeah |
| uclatrader | woodbury, nice outlet, i love it |
| CMaoxian | i get nervous going to woodbury commons cuz i know i'll never find a parking space |
| CMaoxian | ooh that VSR looks like a nice unusual suspect, did you catch it for a day trade? |
| uclatrader | check out IMGC, PSYS |
| Zoomie | CM, could you review AMED? |
| scoot | yeah! except i'm still in it. i only caught the 3/4 buck. |
| keke | CM, you look at very long term charts! |
| CMaoxian | i'll grab some data and post a chart of it |
| CMaoxian | yes keke, the older i get the better my perspective gets |
| keke | haha I usually look at daily and weekly seems longterm |
| karin | I love weekly |
| keke | i love daily |
| CMaoxian | zoomie, AMED broke out last week and went up a lil more this week i think |
| scoot | they got a contract to do environmental cleanup at military sites |
| keke | i hate holding positions any longer than like a month |
| CMaoxian | yes, i read the headlines for it, scoot |
| CMaoxian | well keke, you have to distinguish between investing and trading |
| Zoomie | CM, broke out of a small bull flag, I didn't bite cause of low volume |
| keke | yes, i am a trader |
| keke | i don't deny it |
| CMaoxian | i have to run at 9:05 by the way to go yell at some chinese |
| uclatrader | for wut reason? |
| Zoomie | daily bull flag that is for AMED |
| RedEyes | looks to me to have had two failed bull flags, one in Nov and one again last May |
| RedEyes | let's see if this one hold |
| RedEyes | holds |
| CMaoxian | bidness, ucla |
| keke | what do you guys/gals consider yourselves, traders or investors or both/ |
| uclatrader | me, traders |
| karin | I have a split personality |
| CMaoxian | both keke, and very aware of the distinction |
| RedEyes | I am dysfunctional |
| CMaoxian | that VSR chart is weird scoot |
| 6thworld | ok folks |
| CMaoxian | it's like it went dead after the gap up and then came back to life |
| 6thworld | good night, have a good week |
| CMaoxian | see ya 6th |
| RedEyes | cya 6th |
| scoot | there was some confusion with the pr |
| uclatrader | chairman, do u speak chinese? |
| CMaoxian | yes ucla |
| toc | my trades usually become investments |
| Zoomie | lol |
| uclatrader | that is deadly, toc |
| keke | TOC that is bad |
| uclatrader | that is most dangerous for traders, or investors |
| toc | i know... |
| chud | chairman, you never use a stop loss on your investments? |
| karin | well...you can call one wealthbuilding and the other income |
| CMaoxian | no chud |
| karin | producing |
| keke | i call my trading wealthbuilding and income :-) |
| CMaoxian | i call the latter balding |
| karin | but I don't mix those two in the same account |
| keke | but I do own some investments |
| toc | i bot FORD at 20.50...it dropped to 16...i added..popped to 20...i am out...figured that was ok |
| keke | DRIPS, MFs, Etc. |
| uclatrader | so u will close a position when its fundamental changes? |
| CMaoxian | well the PR mixup gave a nice dummy spot scoot |
| chud | i know you use the sentiment for investment entries. what do you use for exits? or do you buy "forever"? |
| CMaoxian | i should ucla but usually don't and just ignore it |
| CMaoxian | forever chud |
| karin | forever is being dead |
| toc | i bot JSDA at 6...it dropped to 5, i added...back to 6...i am out |
| CMaoxian | it goes in the Forget About It file |
| CMaoxian | i encourage everyone to create a Forget About It file |
| chud | would like to but first need some Forget About It money i reckon |
| CMaoxian | correct chud, the two are closely linked |
| toc | My Long term holds are OVTI, TRC, ONCY, IRIS, MDRX |
| keke | i think drips are the best way to invest for the very long term |
| toc | TRC is largest land owner in CA between Bakersfield and LA |
| toc | like JOE in Fla |
| CMaoxian | talk to people who bought stuff in the early, late, mid-eighties and then sold a year or two later how things would look if they just Forgot About It |
| keke | I'm thinking of buying some ENN and ICST based on the chart (daily) anyone have any thoughts |
| chud | what about those that bought in 2000? |
| fyms | what do you guys think about TOL? |
| CMaoxian | they also have Forgotten About It but for different reasons |
| chud | ha. yes. i've forgotten about my Openmarket even though it's trading for $.0001 |
| karin | I did that with XOM years ago |
| karin | with their investor program |
| CMaoxian | take the tax loss chud, and move along |
| chud | yea. guess i should give up on the turnaround |
| CMaoxian | right karin, you're gonna hate yourself more for having sold XOM in 1984 than you are for buying and holding OMKT in 2000 |
| toc | chairman...do you foresee a tech rally in second half of the hear at all? |
| karin | I signed up for their investor program years ago and sent a check every month |
| RedEyes | ICST, imho, is a better buy around 18, with eps forecast negative no need to be in a rush to buy it |
| CMaoxian | Here's the 15-min. chart of VSR: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | what price did you pay, scoot? |
| keke | as a trade, not investment |
| CMaoxian | i don't foresee anything, toc |
| scoot | 4.75 |
| Zoomie | bull flag on ENN weekly, don't see much volume though |
| CMaoxian | did you Dummy in? what was the initial risk? |
| keke | its done well on the 20 dma multiple times, take a look at the daily |
| toc | ok...ty |
| Zoomie | mmm, well, I retract volume statement |
| chud | vsr = low volume listed stock sounds risky |
| CMaoxian | i try not to forecast, toc |
| RedEyes | CMao, could you give me fill me in by what you mean by dummy in? |
| CMaoxian | it was an unusual suspect, chud |
| fyms | haha |
| fyms | cramer said there will be a tech rally |
| uclatrader | so far he is right on |
| CMaoxian | i wrote a series of lessons called trading for dummies, red |
| keke | any links CM? |
| RedEyes | ahh, I will look at archives - thanks |
| CMaoxian | Dummy Lessons |
| toc | nice job on your site btw...lots of good archives |
| CMaoxian | thx toc |
| Zoomie | best lessons I ever got, stoploss especially |
| toc | is there a better site than yahoo for a quick down and dirty for fundies for a stock? |
| RedEyes677 | didn't know that I couldn't multitask |
| scoot | not really. if i had put a stop in they would have picked it off. |
| CMaoxian | yes, Gann wrote about the stop loss back in the 30's and then no one wrote about it again until Darvas and then no one again until Raschke |
| RedEyes677 | chat room closed when I tried jumping back to home page |
| keke | CM do you have any one link that briefly explains the concept? |
| karin | I do some gann myself |
| CMaoxian | Yahoo is good, toc |
| uclatrader | yes, red |
| chud | keke, just read any dummy lesson |
| toc | ty chairman |
| scoot | speaking of gann. marketmonk has closed up shop. |
| darkstar | hey yall |
| CMaoxian | hi darkstar |
| karin | big fan of Jeff Cooper who uses the Gann a lot |
| darkstar | missed first hour, any revelations? |
| RedEyes677 | wish marketmonk would have kept all of his postings up for review |
| CMaoxian | what do you mean closed shop, scoot? |
| chud | i'm sure you can get em via google cache |
| scoot | i know. i printed out a few charts. |
| CMaoxian | you can read the transcript later, darkstar |
| keke | anyone here have any sites for basics of gap trading? |
| CMaoxian | you mean he took down the blogspot thing? |
| darkstar | k ty |
| RedEyes677 | karin - does JC run a blog? |
| scoot | it was mysterious. i don't know if the government is hassling him or someone else. |
| karin | nope |
| karin | but he has a service |
| keke | he posts on RealMoney |
| RedEyes677 | CMao - yes MM took down his blog replaced it with one page note |
| karin | he is planning a seminar in October with his partner Dave Reiff |
| RedEyes677 | k & k - thanks |
| CMaoxian | well he was making at least $10 million a day and that has to be tiring ;-) |
| chud | monk started talking about paying $10,000 or something to learn from him. |
| CMaoxian | i love it |
| uclatrader | who is market monk? |
| CMaoxian | ok guys i have to pack it in |
| toc | i read the entire thread in EliteTrader re monk...lots of debate about legitimacy |
| chud | why does a guy making that kinda money need $10K |
| RedEyes677 | could have been a way to back out - it was time to put up or shut up |
| scoot | yeah he was strange |
| CMaoxian | i never held my breath for the audited results, lol |
| toc | lots of good links on his blog tho |
| RedEyes677 | lol |
| CMaoxian | Uncle Morty is yelling at me |
| RedEyes677 | agreed |
| scoot | ok see you cm |
| CMaoxian | as is admin |
| keke | bye cm |
| CMaoxian | thanks for coming by, folks |
| squeaky | thanx CM |
| uclatrader | by, chairman |
| toc | ty all |
| karin | thanks cm |
| RedEyes677 | cy all later, thanks for holding the chat |
| darkstar | bye |
| chud | thanks chairman |
| karin | see you next week |
| squeaky | bye all |
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