MaoXian.com -- Archive > July 12, 2005

Reading Roundup (I)

Articles I've read recently with my excerpts and comments in brackets:

In Poker World Series, a Novice Flirts With Glory, by Joe Drape. [5,600 entrants in this year's World Series of Poker, crazy... interesting tidbit: "PokerStars.com provided the buy-in fee and accommodations for 1,116 participants, or nearly 20 percent of the field."]

Ed McBain Dies [I've read dozens of his 87th Precinct books, and most of them, especially the early ones, are excellent. "Vespers" stands out as a notable exception -- it was so bad I threw it against the wall (though the writer of the obituary in the Telegraph calls Vespers "among the best." Say what?) Great paragraph in the obit.:

"McBain had few vices beyond cigarettes, women and staying at Claridge's. A remorselessly disciplined writer, he wrote for eight hours a day at his Connecticut home, invariably producing 10 pages of taut copy. Modelling his style on Hemingway, he claimed to have no set rules, except to start with a corpse and to have tension in each scene. Looking back, he said: 'I don't know what I would do if wrote autobiographical novels like Mailer, Roth and Updike. It was all right when they were young. But now their books reflect the views of cranky old men, and they're a pain in the ass.'" [Ain't that the truth.]

Terry Gross did a couple of interviews with McBain.

Black Gold by David Dreman. ["If you own bonds, keep your positions small and your maturities short, preferably under a year. In your stock portfolio avoid deep cyclicals ... More attractive are health care and consumer staples ... A truly good place to be during these times of rising oil prices is, yes, oil stocks." The only two Forbes columnists I read closely are Shilling and Dreman. I read Grant for kicks.]

Still Time For Treasurys, by Gary Shilling. ["We're in a deflationary world of excess supply ... If my forecast of 1%-to-2% deflation is valid and Treasury bonds rally to 3% yields, they will continue to be superior ... Yields have come a long way from 14.7% to 4.5%, but there's still one big rally left." I guess you can squeeze blood out of a turnip; note that this is the exact opposite advice to what Dreman gives above -- that's what makes a market.]

Dream Machines (Cars in China). ["With 5m car sales last year, China is already the world's third-largest car market, after America (17m) and Japan (5.9m) ... China's strategy, inspired not least by America's experience, is to make the car industry a pillar of its economy ... In China's bigger cities, the rivers of bicycles - once one of the most vivid images of urban China - have been replaced with streets jammed with cars, most of them, terrifyingly, in the hands of novice drivers ... Beijing, a city of 12m people (counting only registered residents) has 2m cars, some 80% of them in private hands. A quarter of a million of these were bought in the past two years ... Most of Beijing's air pollution is caused by cars. The city is often enveloped in a dirty haze, notwithstanding regulations that require cars to meet the European Union's Euro III emissions standards by 2008, in time for the Olympics."]

The Shipping News - The best economic indicator you've never heard of, by Daniel Gross. ["Because the Baltic Dry Index provides 'an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea,' it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade ... Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI 'is totally devoid of speculative content.'" Note that this article was written in 2003 ... if you want to look at an up-to-date chart of the BDI, go here. The first chart is sadly, but predictably, obscured by a lot of useless lines, and you can safely ignore all the overlay charts that follow.]

Posted on July 12, 2005 at 8:00, GMT

Recapping Recent Chats (III)

Here are the charts we discussed in recent chats:

Charts featured in the July 10, 2005 chat:

Frontier Oil (FTO) - monthly chart
Southwest Gas (SWX) - monthly chart
Florida Rock (FRK) - monthly chart
Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) - monthly chart
Steak N Shake (SNS) - monthly chart
Versar (VSR) - 15-minute chart

Charts featured in the July 3, 2005 chat:

Aetna (AET) - quarterly chart
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - monthly chart
WellPoint (WLP) - weekly chart
Community Health (CYH) - weekly chart
Triad Hospitals (TRI) - weekly chart
Japanese Yen - yearly chart since 1860
Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX) - 15-minute chart
streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) - 60-minute chart

Charts featured in the June 26, 2005 chat:

Crude Oil (Continuous Contract) - weekly chart
Natural Gas (Continuous Contract) - weekly chart
EOG Resources (EOG) - monthly chart
Southwestern Energy (SWN) - monthly chart
XTO Energy (XTO) - monthly chart

Charts featured in the June 19, 2005 chat:

Panera Bread (PNRA) - monthly chart
Darden Restaurants (DRI) - monthly chart
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) - weekly chart
California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) - weekly chart
Yum! Brands (YUM) - monthly chart
Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) - 15-minute chart
Light Sweet Crude (CL) - 30-minute chart
Dynamic Materials (BOOM) - 5-minute chart

Charts featured in the June 5, 2005 chat:

Boeing (BA) - monthly chart
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - weekly chart
Google (GOOG) - daily chart
KB Home (KBH) - monthly chart
Toll Brothers (TOL) - monthly chart
Sears Holdings (SHLD) - weekly chart
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - monthly chart
Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) - 15-minute chart
Google (GOOG) - 15-minute chart

Posted on July 12, 2005 at 7:30, GMT

Salacious Stock Chat

A reader emailed an amusingly cobbled together excerpt from a recent chat transcript and commented, "One wonders what they were discussing."

CMaoxian: OK I'm looking at it now Chud
CMaoxian: Definitely an unusual suspect
CMaoxian: Anyway that's neither here nor there, it was a nice entry Chud
CMaoxian: Any slippage getting in?
Chud: Yes. I've reduced my size while I work on the method.
CMaoxian: Great! the best thing to do is play small until the confidence grows
CMaoxian: The method is what matters Chud, not the size

Posted on July 12, 2005 at 7:00, GMT

Previous Entry >>> Chat Transcript for Sunday, July 10, 2005


	Tuesday, July 12 Reading Roundup (I) Articles I've read recently with my excerpts and comments in brackets: In Poker World Series, a Novice Flirts With Glory, by Joe Drape. [5,600 entrants in this year's World Series of Poker, crazy... interesting tidbit: "PokerStars.com provided the buy-in fee and accommodations for 1,116 participants, or nearly 20 percent of the field."] Ed McBain Dies [I've read dozens of his 87th Precinct books, and most of them, especially the early ones, are excellent. "Vespers" stands out as a notable exception -- it was so bad I threw it against the wall (though the writer of the obituary in the Telegraph calls Vespers "among the best." Say what?) Great paragraph in the obit.: "McBain had few vices beyond cigarettes, women and staying at Claridge's. A remorselessly disciplined writer, he wrote for eight hours a day at his Connecticut home, invariably producing 10 pages of taut copy. Modelling his style on Hemingway, he claimed to have no set rules, except to start with a corpse and to have tension in each scene. Looking back, he said: 'I don't know what I would do if wrote autobiographical novels like Mailer, Roth and Updike. It was all right when they were young. But now their books reflect the views of cranky old men, and they're a pain in the ass.'" [Ain't that the truth.] Terry Gross did a couple of interviews with McBain. Black Gold by David Dreman. ["If you own bonds, keep your positions small and your maturities short, preferably under a year. In your stock portfolio avoid deep cyclicals ... More attractive are health care and consumer staples ... A truly good place to be during these times of rising oil prices is, yes, oil stocks." The only two Forbes columnists I read closely are Shilling and Dreman. I read Grant for kicks.] Still Time For Treasurys, by Gary Shilling. ["We're in a deflationary world of excess supply ... If my forecast of 1%-to-2% deflation is valid and Treasury bonds rally to 3% yields, they will continue to be superior ... Yields have come a long way from 14.7% to 4.5%, but there's still one big rally left." I guess you can squeeze blood out of a turnip; note that this is the exact opposite advice to what Dreman gives above -- that's what makes a market.] Dream Machines (Cars in China). ["With 5m car sales last year, China is already the world's third-largest car market, after America (17m) and Japan (5.9m) ... China's strategy, inspired not least by America's experience, is to make the car industry a pillar of its economy ... In China's bigger cities, the rivers of bicycles - once one of the most vivid images of urban China - have been replaced with streets jammed with cars, most of them, terrifyingly, in the hands of novice drivers ... Beijing, a city of 12m people (counting only registered residents) has 2m cars, some 80% of them in private hands. A quarter of a million of these were bought in the past two years ... Most of Beijing's air pollution is caused by cars. The city is often enveloped in a dirty haze, notwithstanding regulations that require cars to meet the European Union's Euro III emissions standards by 2008, in time for the Olympics."] The Shipping News - The best economic indicator you've never heard of, by Daniel Gross. ["Because the Baltic Dry Index provides 'an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea,' it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade ... Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI 'is totally devoid of speculative content.'" Note that this article was written in 2003 ... if you want to look at an up-to-date chart of the BDI, go here. The first chart is sadly, but predictably, obscured by a lot of useless lines, and you can safely ignore all the overlay charts that follow.] Posted on July 12, 2005 at 8:00, GMT Recapping Recent Chats (III) Here are the charts we discussed in recent chats: Charts featured in the July 10, 2005 chat: Frontier Oil (FTO) - monthly chart Southwest Gas (SWX) - monthly chart Florida Rock (FRK) - monthly chart Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) - monthly chart Steak N Shake (SNS) - monthly chart Versar (VSR) - 15-minute chart Charts featured in the July 3, 2005 chat: Aetna (AET) - quarterly chart UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - monthly chart WellPoint (WLP) - weekly chart Community Health (CYH) - weekly chart Triad Hospitals (TRI) - weekly chart Japanese Yen - yearly chart since 1860 Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX) - 15-minute chart streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) - 60-minute chart Charts featured in the June 26, 2005 chat: Crude Oil (Continuous Contract) - weekly chart Natural Gas (Continuous Contract) - weekly chart EOG Resources (EOG) - monthly chart Southwestern Energy (SWN) - monthly chart XTO Energy (XTO) - monthly chart Charts featured in the June 19, 2005 chat: Panera Bread (PNRA) - monthly chart Darden Restaurants (DRI) - monthly chart Domino's Pizza (DPZ) - weekly chart California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) - weekly chart Yum! Brands (YUM) - monthly chart Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) - 15-minute chart Light Sweet Crude (CL) - 30-minute chart Dynamic Materials (BOOM) - 5-minute chart Charts featured in the June 5, 2005 chat: Boeing (BA) - monthly chart Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - weekly chart Google (GOOG) - daily chart KB Home (KBH) - monthly chart Toll Brothers (TOL) - monthly chart Sears Holdings (SHLD) - weekly chart Urban Outfitters (URBN) - monthly chart Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) - 15-minute chart Google (GOOG) - 15-minute chart Posted on July 12, 2005 at 7:30, GMT Salacious Stock Chat A reader emailed an amusingly cobbled together excerpt from a recent chat transcript and commented, "One wonders what they were discussing." CMaoxian: OK I'm looking at it now Chud CMaoxian: Definitely an unusual suspect CMaoxian: Anyway that's neither here nor there, it was a nice entry Chud CMaoxian: Any slippage getting in? Chud: Yes. I've reduced my size while I work on the method. CMaoxian: Great! the best thing to do is play small until the confidence grows CMaoxian: The method is what matters Chud, not the size Posted on July 12, 2005 at 7:00, GMT Previous Entry >>> Chat Transcript for Sunday, July 10, 2005		Home Archive © 2000 - 2005 Chairman MaoXian