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Monday, July 25





Chat Transcript for Sunday, July 24, 2005

Thanks to everyone who participated in the "Focus on Financial Firms" chat last night. For those who couldn't make it, here's the complete transcript. (Next week the chat will be held Monday evening, starting at 8:00 PM, Eastern Time.)

Posted on July 25, 2005 at 8:00, GMT
CMaoxian hi red
bigred hello
CMaoxian hi tom
tom ni hao
tom that's all the chinese I know
CMaoxian it's a start
tom I should say good morning to you cs
CMaoxian hi mike
CMaoxian yes, right, tom
TraderMike sup
CMaoxian many folks have written to say i should hold this on Monday morning, eastern time, whaddya think?
CMaoxian or monday night?
TraderMike I say night time
CMaoxian how about pre-open, like 8-9:30 AM?
CMaoxian hi smidt
bigred preopen good idea
Smidt Hello to all!
TraderMike I've got too many other things going on pre-market. but I can always read the transcript later
bigred what do you think of this chart?
bigred singapore ETF
bigred EWS chart
karin good evenning
CMaoxian Singapore? looks like a breakout from a longish base
CMaoxian hi karin
karin :)
CMaoxian looks like an Ugly style thing
bigred I don't know if it's just up big on the yuan revaluation or what
bigred but it looks nice
CMaoxian yuan reval prolly not hurting
TraderMike sure does
TraderMike hola Karin
bigred the malaysia ETF looks a similar
CMaoxian the FXI also went to a new high
karin hola Mike
CMaoxian hi zwz
zwz2005 hi
CMaoxian hi 6th
6thworld evening all
karin I took almost 2 weeks off....felt like heaven
TraderMike sup 6th
6thworld hey Mao and TraderM
6thworld whats shaking guys?
TraderMike do anything exciting Karin?
karin went to Colorado
6thworld ooo, i love CO
CMaoxian i'm gonna yack about a few of my favorite financial stocks
6thworld financial stocks in a rising interest rate market?
CMaoxian we'll start with that $300 a share stock (not Google)
TraderMike CME?
CMaoxian
TraderMike I hate that CME specialist
TraderMike ridiculous spreads on that thing
CMaoxian yes, too bad it's not electronically traded ;-)
TraderMike yep!
CMaoxian CME will prolly earn $8.50 a share next year
TraderMike sounds like GOOG numbers
CMaoxian their net margin is around 30% so....
CMaoxian GOOG will not earn $8.50 next year, lol
tom earnings come out Tuesday?
CMaoxian you remember my post, It's Nice To Be The House
TraderMike yep
6thworld oh yes, that was when you were taking classes from Prof Dinky Scalp
tom we'd all be retired if we bet the house back then when you brought it up
CMaoxian Prof Dinky Scalp burned out and went back to her day job
CMaoxian no, i thought it was overvalued then, tom ;-)
CMaoxian next up is Lehman Brothers
CMaoxian
6thworld yeah I like LEH
6thworld did a research interview with them
CMaoxian LEH may earn $9.40 a share next year
6thworld looks like it broke out in 2005
6thworld what happened to LEH in 98?
6thworld anybody?
CMaoxian i like the drop back in 1998 ... one of those times where it became a bargain
CMaoxian LTCM
zwz2005 Except these two, Citi still pop up in my scan
6thworld oh yes
6thworld yeah what about C?
CMaoxian which scan is that, zwz?
zwz2005 TC2000
CMaoxian what are the criteria?
CMaoxian next up is Legg Mason
CMaoxian
bigred C in a trading range on chart, big red bar last week too
CMaoxian that's a quarterly chart
zwz2005 EPS > 20%, REV > 15.... So on
CMaoxian you can see the break in '03 from the sideways action that started in '00
CMaoxian thx zwz
CMaoxian you have to keep your eyes squarely on the new highs list at all times
TraderMike yes sir. buy high, sell higher
CMaoxian those are my three favorites...
CMaoxian now we can look at Schwab
CMaoxian
zwz2005 Last few sessions, C always shown up in New Low
6thworld I wonder if C is a good buy
CMaoxian SCH looks like it may want to finally get up from this base
TraderMike they should with all the commissions they're making off of me
CMaoxian as you know SCH made the disastrous decision to move "upscale" just as the market peaked
CMaoxian did you read TaylorTree's post about trying to contact CyberTrader sales, mike?
TraderMike no, I missed that one
CMaoxian he was ticked because no one there apparently answers emails
CMaoxian Fidelity and others have just eaten SCH's lunch lo these many years
TraderMike hmm
CMaoxian i was deeply disturbed when i learned that Schwab had hired those Bozos from Bain
TraderMike ah, I see it now. they're very responsive on the phone & over IM
CMaoxian (at least they didn't hire McKinsey Morons)
tom the stock has been hot of late
CMaoxian if management can't right the ship on their own and have to bring in high-priced pretty boys, then you know you're f%*&*d as a shareholder
karin I use Fidelity, but have to complain these days for not being responsive enough
karin if you don't trade a lot, they quickly raise their commission
CMaoxian are you an "active trader" there, karin?
karin yes
CMaoxian hi fyms
FYMs yo
karin but I don't overtrade any more
CMaoxian that's good
CMaoxian i read recently about a guy who made 15 trades in a day, he needs help ;-)
TraderMike what a joker
CMaoxian lol
CMaoxian last featured chart, Ameritrade
CMaoxian
CMaoxian note the range over the last few years
zwz2005 15 trades?, well, how large is his account
CMaoxian the ladies tell me he's very large
TraderMike LMAO
karin hmmm
TraderMike I've grown it from 5,000 to 10,000,000 ;-)
CMaoxian one thing you may not know about AMTD is that their net margin is 30%
CMaoxian these guys run a lean ship, but i don't know how well that will hold with this TDWaterhouse purchase
CMaoxian they bought Datek in September 2002 if you recall
CMaoxian that's the closest contact i've had with Ameritrade
TraderMike good ole Datek... seems like a lifetime ago
CMaoxian they may earn 95 cents a share next year
CMaoxian it was a lifetime ago and those were happy days
CMaoxian hi bjr
bjr yabaseo
CMaoxian esperanto?
bjr hangulma
CMaoxian ok i'm done yacking about the featured charts... any day trades of note last week we can review?
TraderMike I have a list of 15
CMaoxian hi bash
CMaoxian we've already studied your GOOG and ADTN ones mike, got any more?
karin I entered BDE as a swing trade the other day
CMaoxian ok great, lemme grab some data
TraderMike none that I can think of... all my records are upstairs
karin mostly because it is an oil company, and it is right here in Houston
6thworld i have a question, not a trade
karin also traded GEOI
karin again
karin all mike's fault
TraderMike LOL
karin it is a cash cow
karin moo
6thworld has anyone dabbled in point and figure charts? if so, was it successful? any comments?
karin also bought EENC
karin for good dividends
CMaoxian i read Dorsey's book, 6th and liked the buying selling pressure index thing
CMaoxian BDE is a new issue?
karin yes
6thworld thx
karin but I have known the company for sometime
CMaoxian can you walk us through your thinking with BDE?
CMaoxian hi bernard
bernard hi
karin not much walking really
CMaoxian entry, planned exit, stop loss, etc?
karin got at 13 .99
karin sold 1/2 friday at 14.99
karin keeping the rest
CMaoxian bought on 7/19?
karin I only trade a few stocks
bernard BDE looks good
CMaoxian what was the initial stop?
zwz2005 I'm interested too, never trade an IPO, until its first base
karin 14.50
bernard the retracement is only down to 50% 13.55
zwz2005 2 x R
karin well....I like them
CMaoxian hi jelly
jellyfish hi chairman
CMaoxian i mean the initial stop, after the entry at 13.99
karin when oil retraces, I start looking
bernard would look to buy BDE on a pull back to 14.04
karin no
karin I will be out before that
CMaoxian hi oz
karin still like XTO too
jellyfish how's life in beijing?
CMaoxian it's hot and muggy at the moment, jelly
packoz Hello
karin what do you call hot?
CMaoxian let's look at the GEOI
jellyfish i was curious, any trading opportunities during the day for you, i mean western markets?
CMaoxian anything over 70 degrees is hot
TraderMike it was 95 here today
karin 90 here and 100% humidity today
jellyfish given the time differences?
CMaoxian well it's a 12 hr time diff so i'm usually asleep, jelly
bigred anyone got any "big trend" ideas? I got long Oil and gold a few years ago and now I am looking for the next trend -- water stocks?
CMaoxian i think folks are hip to water, red
bigred anything else then?
CMaoxian ok i'm looking at GEOI
jellyfish how about the chinese markets?
jellyfish or asian markets?
CMaoxian i would avoid the chinese, lol
CMaoxian hi dog
karin me2
nvdog hey, better late than never
CMaoxian can you walk us through the GEOI trade
CMaoxian GEOI looks mighty thin to me
CMaoxian hi titus
zwz2005 I like GEIO's chart
karin bought GEOI 7-21 at 14:54 pm ctd
titus hi all
CMaoxian what's the B/A spread in GEOI these days
karin @14.29
bernard GEOI is a strong stock
karin sold 7-22 @ 15.56
CMaoxian what was the reason for that entry price, karin?
karin I am embarrased to say
TraderMike lol
karin I buy stocks the last minute
CMaoxian that's an impressive exit, what was the embarrassing reason for it?
karin before closing
karin because I just watch the darn thing all day
karin and ready to pounce on it
karin prolly doesn't make sense to you guys
6thworld what triggers the pounce?
CMaoxian isn't that a little like Russian Roulette?
karin but that's my trading
karin could be
CMaoxian i'm trying to understand anyway ;-)
karin but I ONLY do it with stocks I know
karin stocks I know intimately
TraderMike anybody get trapped in CAFE?
CMaoxian i don't know any stocks intimately, but i have had a few one night stands
karin no
karin but cafe was good to me
karin funny mao
CMaoxian can you walk us through one of your losing trades, karin?
karin ABLE
karin was one of those
karin no wait, not true
jellyfish same here
CMaoxian ok i'm looking at it
CMaoxian mike why were you looking at ADTN, was it a suspect?
TraderMike yeah... up on a volume surge post-earnings
CMaoxian ah, earnings, yes
karin Mike...you put me up to GEOI
TraderMike it was all so clear
karin that's when I started to hit your site
zwz2005 Have to go. c u guys
TraderMike that was ages ago :-)
zwz2005 bye
TraderMike later
karin yeah Mike...I have been trading that thing every since
karin all your fault
TraderMike but I'll accept credit for all winning trades in it though
karin it is a really good company to boot
jellyfish anybody can recommend a good day trading platform?
karin something one can actually invest in
CMaoxian i tend to avoid things like GEOI once they lose their stock du jour appeal
6thworld i blame the chairman for all my dating mistakes, lol
CMaoxian dating or trading?
6thworld dating
6thworld lol
jellyfish day trading
CMaoxian date trading
CMaoxian kind of like wife swapping
6thworld trading dates?
CMaoxian yes and figs in a stretch
6thworld hmm, a new reality tv show
karin nah
karin cramer is the trading reality show of the year
TraderMike he is entertaining
6thworld cramer is a funny kook
jellyfish seriously, cybertrader, tradestation, etrade, etc
CMaoxian ok let's look at how mike should have traded ADTN if he hadn't been surfing for brazilian beauties and messed up the time frame
TraderMike I plead the 5th
CMaoxian jelly, check them all out and IB as well
jellyfish what's IB?
tom interactive brokers
karin mao....I will keep my next trades and what I thought about it at the time for the next meeiting...sounds like a good idea
TraderMike I use Cyber and am very happy with them. they usually have a great short list
CMaoxian i'm just getting the ADTN chart together now
TraderMike make sure you use 5 min candles
CMaoxian thx karin, it's nice to learn how other people think
karin I agree...need to do that
nvdog tradestation's short list not so great
karin I write a lot about my trades, but usually how I felt
karin you guys want to hear the technicals
CMaoxian i try to put my feelings in a box under the desk
karin not me
6thworld leave your feelings at the door
karin nope
karin I totally disagree
jellyfish what do people use for intra day scans for breakouts? i mean critieria, volume, price change(dollar and %), like prophet for example?
6thworld jelly, i like to look for some heavy volume
6thworld at least twice the day before
6thworld the more the better
CMaoxian i never scanned for breakouts per se, jelly, i just kept an eye on what was moving
CMaoxian like ADTN for example
jellyfish well, sometimes it's good to see the bandwagon coming early and jump on them
6thworld depends on where the band wagon goes
karin George Soros says in his book Alchemy of Finance: "It is impossible to rid one's self of emotions, yet it is important to keep one's emotional state as stable as possible in order to have a solid platform from which changes in the outside world can be evaluated..."
jellyfish i think friday, some of the oil explorers,
bernard PPC reports tomorrow expect it to pop
TraderMike after ADTN, how about looking at a daily of some steel stock? SCHN, STLD, OS ?
CMaoxian yes, George Soros is correct but he also has a billion more dollars than me so his platform is more solid than mine to start
jellyfish what you think will happen with CAFE?
karin minor detail
karin :)
CMaoxian ok mike, lemme just post the ADTN chart
TraderMike no clue Jelly
jellyfish feel bad for the people who got trapped in that
TraderMike me too
TraderMike greed kills
jellyfish we start a rescue fund
TraderMike LOL
CMaoxian hi rich
brich how's it going?
jellyfish chairman, where in beijing are in?
bernard bye
jellyfish inside the fourth ring road
CMaoxian yes, i'm on guang hua lu
CMaoxian finally, the ADTN chart:
CMaoxian
jellyfish my goal would be to retire early like you chairman and trade profitably
TraderMike what a bootiful trade
CMaoxian who says i'm retired? i still yell at chinese people full time
CMaoxian hi smatty
smatty Hi all
CMaoxian mike how badly did that mess-up disrupt your mental state?
brich anyone play ADTN?
jellyfish does down=inside bar?
TraderMike not too bad, especially since I didn't realize it until really late in the day
CMaoxian one good thing about blogging, i'm being serious here, is that when mike wrote about that mess-up it was probably cathartic and helped him get back on an even keel
brich not necessarily
CMaoxian down *or* inside, jelly
jellyfish well, yelling at chinese people is just a hobby of mine, not a job
TraderMike yeah, and I'll never do that again
karin big red....hmmm
jellyfish sorry tradermike, i came late to the chat, what happened? if you don't mind
TraderMike I Hate It When That Happens
CMaoxian she isn't loading for me, red
TraderMike man, China's got you on lock down
CMaoxian i'll kill that link in the transcript red, not because i'm a prude, but because it won't load ;-)
CMaoxian i don't think nanny blocked that one
brich CMao, did your wife finally make you take down the girlie pics, or did it have anything to do with you moving to China?
bigred you stopped putting up the pick of the week what happened
CMaoxian no, i ran out of pics of former girlfriends to post
brich i hate it when that happens
brich I got sued, so I had to take mine down
jellyfish well, chairman, what was your "job"?
TraderMike CM, I find the difference in the eSig and your (QCharts?) very disturbing
CMaoxian should we look at thise CAFE thing together and call it a night?
brich let's do this
jellyfish well, the thing that surprised me about the CAFE thing is that after there was news of SEC investigation, the thing still went up and then the blowup
CMaoxian yes mike, i was disturbed by that too, but i think it's cuz the quote.com is stamping the bars differently, which is something i'd correct if i were grabbing the data in real time instead of after the fact
TraderMike ah
CMaoxian not a biggie, in other words
6thworld hey CM, i saw XLV drop in your newsletter rankings, do you think its only temporary?
jellyfish chairman, why do you like quote.com
TraderMike ok, as long as my charts are correct :-)
CMaoxian hi JC
JC Hello
CMaoxian i've just used them forever, jelly... inertia
jellyfish but it's not real time is it?
JC Are you guys about to wrap up?
jellyfish which platform did you use to trade chairman?
CMaoxian no JC we still have a few mins
CMaoxian i used IB mainly, jelly
CMaoxian with QCharts for charting
CMaoxian IB should just buy Quote.com and integrate Qcharts (he says wishfully)
jellyfish hmm, isn't that kinda cumbersome? i mean doesn't IB have adequate charts?
CMaoxian no jelly, IB's charts rot
JC Mao, were you ever a member of LBR Group chat service?
CMaoxian so CAFE is suspended? no trades on Friday?
jellyfish well, let me tell people here that Ameritrade sucks for day trading
CMaoxian JC i've never been able to afford LBR's chat ;-)
TraderMike CAFE won't trade until August I think
jellyfish compared to Etrade at least, considering that i have only used those two
brich Jelly, do you use their IZone platform?
CMaoxian are you using Etrade's pro platform?
TraderMike do you trade through a browser? or do they have a client side app?
jellyfish both have separate java applications
6thworld good night all
TraderMike c ya
brich laters 6th
6thworld happy trading
bigred night all got to get some sleep
JC Does anyone here use Tradestation platform?
jellyfish i think that tradestation is kinda expensive
CMaoxian article on CAFE
CMaoxian SEC suspends Host America shares after run up
jellyfish any1 can give comparisons between cybertrader and tradestation
CMaoxian roger does, JC, but he's not here tonight
TraderMike Jelly, try searching at EliteTrader.com
jellyfish chairman, do you plan to travel inside china? I would recommend a trip to qingdao, nice place, good food, on the coast
jellyfish okay tradermike, thanks, will do
brich EliteTrader.com is a nice reference... all in all, you're best off with IB
CMaoxian so is this CAFE thing a scam or just a misunderstanding?
brich how is WMT affected by this? any negative sentiment?
CMaoxian thx jelly, i've been to TsingTao already, and i even had a beer there
TraderMike I think the latter
TraderMike I can't belive the SEC didn't do something like that to IIJI
TraderMike that was some shady sh!t
karin lol
jellyfish yeah, IIJI has been a rollercoaster
CMaoxian CAFE definitely hit the unusual suspect lists
smatty what is IB.(excuse a dumb question)
JC Interactive Brokers
TraderMike Interactive Brokers
smatty ah thanks
CMaoxian all questions welcome, especially ones i know the answer to!
CMaoxian IB stands for Ingrid Bergman
jellyfish why do you like IB as opposed to the other platforms?
jellyfish speed, data?
JC Mao, was Fuzzy designed primarily for one time frame or is it applicable to all?
CMaoxian applicable to all, JC
CMaoxian all systems should work on all time frames
jellyfish chairman, which of the chinese internet companies do you like?
jellyfish sina, snda, ntes, sohu?
brich AOL?
CMaoxian here's the hourly CAFE chart
CMaoxian
CMaoxian i don't know anything about any of them, jelly, but it seems folks around here use SINA and SOHU a lot
jellyfish aol sucks, i had an encounter with them when i bought a dell computer, i tried to cancel the subscription and it was such a hassle
karin now...what was the deal on CAFE
CMaoxian i linked to the story above, karin
brich sorry, it's hard to pick up sarcasm in chat rooms
karin I must have been breathing the cool mountain air when that happend
CMaoxian hi blo
TraderMike SEC said their press release was misleading
jellyfish CAFE came out with a PR which may be suspect
jellyfish do you have broadband, chairman?
karin yeah, but the daytraders don't really care about the press releases
CMaoxian i have ADSL, jelly
jellyfish how much does it cost you in beijing?
TraderMike the ones trapped in it will care now
CMaoxian well it costs me 2.1% more than it used to
karin lol mike
TraderMike money tied up for 2 weeks
TraderMike what a nightmare
jellyfish what do you mean daytraders don't care about press releases? it's the fodder for a lot of trading
CMaoxian it costs me $12.33 a month, jelly
jellyfish hmm, comparable to here, us
karin you read the presses before you trade?
brich not to change gears here or anything, but do any of you guys have any strategies on moving your stops towards the end of day before the market closes?
CMaoxian i paid a lot more than that in both London and the US
CMaoxian no rich, i just close out EOD
CMaoxian i think i paid Comcast $40 a month
TraderMike I pay about $50 for my cable modem
jellyfish yeah, i pay that much, 50 for my cable modem
CMaoxian British Telecom was prolly even more, everything in London costs about double
jellyfish but cable is better than dsl
TraderMike agreed
CMaoxian depends on how many people are on the line at the same time ;-)
brich ok, but the only time you move your stop is when your initial risk is covered?
karin I pay $14.95 for my DSL
TraderMike I'm still waiting on a direct fiber line to my home
jellyfish they tell me that i can get 5 megs of download, which is a piece of crap
brich damn, I pay $44.95 for cable
JC Mao, do you tend to find more favorable reward/risk with Fuzzy in some time frames vs. others (say 30m vs. daily)?
CMaoxian well JC it's just a matter of having to expect much larger drawdowns on higher time frames so position sizing is key
karin Southwestern Bell
CMaoxian rich, i often don't move the stop at all, even after initial risk is covered
jellyfish well, chairman, let me tell you that i am very jealous of your life style, retire early and in china nonetheless
CMaoxian i'm not retired, and i'm bald fat and ugly so don't be jealous
CMaoxian does anyone have any parting thoughts, comments suggestions?
blo5ish i got 2 out of the four
JC I noticed that you typically show Fuzzy on 30m chart
blo5ish no, 3
CMaoxian blo ;-)
CMaoxian i think next week i will try to start the chat at 8 PM Eastern Time, see how that works
nvdog good banter tonight all, peace, out
brich thanks for the chat and the time CM, Mike
TraderMike u r welcome
CMaoxian just hit the tip jar on the way out, rich
jellyfish yeah, nice to chat with you, cm, peace out
blo5ish very nice chat
TraderMike later everybody
CMaoxian thx for coming by jelly
jellyfish well, maybe you can spare some money chairman
jellyfish for my trading fund
brich I will once I get my wife's law school student loans paid off
brich ;)
CMaoxian have *her* hit the tip jar, lol
CMaoxian thanks to everyone who took the time to come by tonight
jellyfish have you had peking duck yet?
brich no doubt
jellyfish at quanjude?
CMaoxian yes, i have peking duck every time my duck-fat reserves run low
brich the cream of sun yun gui?
CMaoxian QuanJuDe ain't the only duck place in this town
jellyfish yeah, that's something i really miss about beijing
jellyfish well, it may be the best
CMaoxian ever seen a duck force fed?
CMaoxian it put me off duck for a whole week ;-)
jellyfish yes, i have
jellyfish believe it or not
CMaoxian i believe it!
CMaoxian gotta run... later all
jellyfish later
JC thanks...
jellyfish chairman
smatty later



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