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Friday, August 26





Trading the Conundrum

The Notes have put in a nice little run these past couple of weeks. Don't worry about the "conundrum" of low long-term interest rates. Just be thankful that the Chinese continue to recycle their dollars, always trade with the trend, and never overthink things.

ZN
10-Year T-Note Futures, Hourly Chart

Posted on August 26, 2005 at 8:00, GMT

The Best of Sherlock Holmes, Jeremy Brett, Freddy Eynsford-Hill, etc.

I recently finished reading The Best of Sherlock Holmes, edited by David Stuart Davies, which is a collection of the 20 "best" Holmes stories. Through the magic of the state-owned publisher who printed the book, it starts on page 31 making it a collection of the 18 best stories. Anyway, my favorites are Silver Blaze and The Man with the Twisted Lip, but all the stories are more or less wonderful. Here are some of my favorite lines taken from various stories:

"... she waved us into our respective chairs like a reverend abbess receiving two rather leprous mendicants."

"[she had] a voice like the wind from an iceberg."

"Holmes hunted about among the grass and leaves like a retriever after a wounded bird."

"[Holmes] sat up in his chair like an old hound who hears the view-halloo."

"He had a fine flow of language, and his adjectives were very vigorous."

"The little man stood glancing from one to the other of us with half-frightened, half-hopeful eyes, as one who is not sure whether he is on the verge of a windfall or of a catastrophe."

"... the breath of the passers-by blew out into smoke like so many pistol shots."

"Folks who were in grief came to my wife like birds to a lighthouse."

"[the opium den was] terraced with wooden berths, like the forecastle of an emigrant ship."

"I have felt like one of those poor rabbits when the snake is writhing towards it."

I'm a big fan of the Sherlock Holmes series that Granada made in the 80's, starring Jeremy Brett. You can buy the complete set on DVD for $160. I know a lot of people hated Brett's interpretation of Holmes, but I think it's spot-on: Brett was brilliant.

Incidentally, Baby T's favorite part of My Fair Lady is the scene where Freddy Eynsford-Hill (played by Jeremy Brett) sings "On the Street Where You Live." Brett did have a good voice, but he didn't really sing that song -- his singing parts were all dubbed, just like Audrey's.

People stop and stare. They don't bother me.
For there's nowhere else on earth that I would rather be.
Let the time go by, I won't care if I
Can be here on the street where you live.

Posted on August 26, 2005 at 7:30, GMT

TOL Gaps and Craps on Record Results: Fugly

"For the third quarter, Toll had net income of $215.5 million, the highest for any quarter in its history. Last year's third-quarter net profit stood at $106.0 million. Earnings per share rang in at $1.27, a 92 percent jump over 66 cents a share for the same period a year ago. Third-quarter revenue were also strong, coming in at $1.56 billion and setting a record."

TOL's quarterly numbers were much higher than I anticipated, but the stock gapped and crapped and it looks like the weekly grail trade will soon be stopped out for a loss. Does this mean "The Top" is in for the homebuilders? Not necessarily, but the action in TOL is obviously a cause for concern. As one of my old trading buddies is fond of saying: "It doesn't look good to dude, dude."

TOL
TOL, Hourly Chart

Posted on August 26, 2005 at 7:00, GMT



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