July 31, 2006


If You Don’t Invest In U.S. Bonds, What Do You Invest In?

China sees foreign cash pile as possible peril, by David Lague

Old article, but I thought I’d bring it up as I see the RMB trading at 7.969.

Since 2002, China’s foreign exchange holdings have tripled in a clear measure of the scale of Beijing’s efforts to hold down the value of the yuan and lift the competitiveness of Chinese exports. To maintain the value of China’s currency, the central bank buys [it doesn’t “buy,” it exchanges] a big slice of the foreign currency flowing into China from exports, foreign investment and speculative capital.

So far, there appears to be little evidence that the accumulation of foreign currency would fuel inflation, according to analysts. These fears of inflation arise because the Chinese government prints local currency to pay for the foreign exchange it buys. However, to contain the threat of rapid inflation from the growth in the money supply, the government then sells debt to soak up or “sterilize” the yuan it issues. This appears to be working, with most economists satisfied that the growth in the money supply was in line with the expansion of the economy.

Related: Nice table of China’s foreign exchange reserves, 1977-2006


Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of July 31, 2006

The only thing I learnd from Jonathan Laing’s lame cover story, What Could Go Wrong With China?, was a new word: pelf.

pelf (pĕlf)
n.
Wealth or riches, especially when dishonestly acquired.
[Middle English, from Medieval Latin pelfra, pelfa, probably from Old French pelfre.]

Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue:

“There are only five things you can do with a free-cash-flow dollar. You can pay a dividend, buy back stock, pay down debt, make an acquisition or reinvest in the business … the U.S. consumer is 20% of the world’s gross domestic product.” — William Priest, interviewed by Neil Martin

“Steve Kaplan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, thinks the HCA buyout may represent another peak in the private-equity market, as the RJR deal did back in the late ‘Eighties.” — Jonathan Laing

“All things considered, David Rosenberg, the North American economist for Merrill Lynch reckons that the drop in housing will shave as much as two percentage points from normal GDP growth of 3.5% over the next four to six quarters.” — Alan Abelson

“Abitibi-Consolidated, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of newsprint, bid farewell to 57 years of continuous dividends, as newspaper publishers purchased less newsprint in the face of fewer ads and declining circulation. The company eliminated its quarterly common dividend of 2.5 Canadian cents a share, which it had slashed from a dime in June 2003.” — Shirley Lazo

“Over the past seven quarters, Motorola’s global market share has jumped from 13.5% to 22.1%. Meanwhile, Nokia’s has remained relatively flat at 33% … Motorola has shipped more than 50 million RAZRs since their launch in November 2004 … GSM technology is employed by roughly four-fifths of the globe — mostly outside the United States.” — Mark Veverka [ed. the RAZR is so cool that even the gadget-averse Chairman has considered getting one.]

“Hong Kong already has more than 300 hedge-fund managers, and very few people are familiar with them.” — Sandra Manzke

“After Friday’s weaker-than-expected second-quarter gross-domestic-product report, the futures market has priced in just a 31% chance of an 18th consecutive rate hike — compared with around a 50% likelihood before the GDP data were released … S&P earlier this month said that while the global corporate speculative-grade-bond default rate increased in June to 1.13% from 1.09% in May, it remained near all-time lows.” — Tom Sullivan

“The International Coffee Organization estimates the world consumed a record 117 million bags of robusta and arabica coffee in the 2005 calendar year.” — Lisa Kallal [ed. the legalized drug market has never been better.]

“The most recent CBOE seat to change hands went for $1.35 million — up from about $700,000 a year ago and $299,000 in January 2005.” — Kopin Tan [ed. Up 350% in a year-and-a-half? Yowza.]

“China, over 10 years, has more than quadrupled its annual steel output, to nearly 40 million tons — more than its own market can stomach. With excess supply now flowing from that nation, global hot-rolled coil prices, which peaked at $700 to $800 a ton in 2004 and early 2005, are around $600, after having slid below $500 late last year. They seem bound to skid again in 2007, in part owing to the U.S. housing slowdown.” — Rattaphol Onsanit

“Wal-Mart admitted that its inability to achieve economies of scale quickly was the primary reason it couldn’t succeed in Germany … Germany allows retail stores to stay open just over 80 hours a week, half of what’s permitted in the U.K. And German laws that restrict retailers’ ability to sell goods below cost also played against Wal-Mart. — Howard Wheeldon [ed. Does the US permit retail stores to be open 168 hours a week? Loss leading is verboten in Germany? Crazy.]

Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


It Helps to be a Bit of a Shit

If you want to be rich, first stop being so frightened, by Felix Dennis

If it flies, floats or fornicates, always rent it — it’s cheaper in the long run.

Wise words from the founder of Maxim magazine.

- via TraderMike -


Partisan Passions

Poll finds partisan ‘chasm’ in U.S. on Iraq war, by Robin Toner

No military conflict in modern times has divided Americans on partisan lines more than the war in Iraq, scholars and pollsters say - not even Vietnam. The latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows three-fourths of the Republicans said the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, while just 24 percent of the Democrats did.


A Culture of Ambivalence and Allusion

Language: Learning to speak American, by Marion McKeone

We Irish just can’t say yes. Or no. It’s not in our genes. In Irish Gaelic, we don’t even have a word for them. The closest is “Is ea,” which means “It is so.” And “Ni hea,” which means “It is not so.” There are, however, about 50 different approximations that indicate various degrees of equivocation.

Our genetic inability to call a spade a spade and our compulsion to say no when we mean yes, and vice versa, are but surface manifestations of a deeply ingrained reflex to subvert, invert and pervert the English language. In Ireland, the words must fit the rhythm, often at the expense of logic or clarity.

July 30, 2006


ETF Performance Table — Week Ending July 28, 2006

etf


ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending July 28, 2006

etf foreign

July 29, 2006


Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — July 28, 2006


smiles



Another Reason To Be Long the Renminbi

S&P Upgrades China’s Credit, Citing Reforms, by Jason Dean

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lifted its long-term sovereign credit rating for China to A from A-minus. It cited the huge foreign-exchange reserves generated by China’s booming exports, a stockpile of hard currency on track to surpass $1 trillion this year and one that far exceeds China’s outstanding foreign debt.

One trillion pieces of green-colored paper looking for a home.


Notable New Highs — July 28, 2006

nnh

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