Been awhile since I posted my “Recently Read” list, and that’s because I haven’t been reading much recently. I haven’t watched a movie in probably six months either. (The last thing I saw was Little Miss Sunshine which I didn’t like — they were trying too hard to be cute and quirky and I hate it when it’s forced like that). I start many books and finish few, so it means a lot if it’s listed here (I didn’t give up on it).

The Empty Hours, by Ed McBain — three short 87th Precinct novels in this volume. Not bad, not great — they’re from 1960, ‘61, ‘62 and I think the 87th Precinct stories got better over time. McBain can be hit or miss, but he’s usually very good.

Void Moon, by Michael Connelly — not a detective Harry Bosch book … this is a story about a high-tech woman burglar, not bad, not great, very violent in parts, bummed me out in some ways, hard to explain why it depressed me — certainly doesn’t glamorize crime or criminals.

Out of Sight, by Elmore Leonard — I really like Elmore Leonard though in some ways with his books, you’ve read one, you’ve read ‘em all. Out of Sight was made into a good movie (Clooney & J. Lo) which I recommend, though they Hollywood-ified the ending completely (the book’s ending is both realistic and tragic — no Hollywood movie is allowed to end this way).

The Talented Mr. Ripley, by Patricia Highsmith — I never read books written by women, but this is a “classic” and it wasn’t bad (took me awhile to finish it). Mr. Ripley could pull it off in the 1950s, but today his switcheroo would last about 10 seconds.

The High Window, by Raymond Chandler — Love Chandler, can never get enough of his stuff. My “Favorite Lines” post for The High Window.

Cadillac Jukebox, by Jame Lee Burke — my first James Lee Burke book and probably my last. It wasn’t terrible but I just didn’t get into it at all.

The Lady in the Lake, by Raymond Chandler — a rare case where I figured out the mystery instantly (I’m usually pretty thick). My “Favorite Lines” post for The Lady in the Lake.

The Little Sister, by Raymond Chandler — still on the Chandler kick. My “Favorite Lines” post for The Little Sister.

The Last Coyote, by Michael Connelly — I like Michael Connelly’s Harry Bosch character a lot. Connelly can write well; he has great pacing.

The Bombing Officer, by Jerome Doolittle — The bureaucracy, corruption, incompetence, stupidity and tragedy of war all exposed in this short book.

(The Last Dozen Books Read series.)

Here are the simple steps you can take if you want to be appear to be a trading guru:

1) Pick the single most directional day the market has seen in the last two months (Oct. 19),

2) Miraculously get on the right side of the market (short, duh),

3) During a 35 point plunge, successfully scalp out a couple of S&P points while risking a couple of S&P points (1:1 risk to reward, yeah!),

4) Write a blog post filled with pretty charts and a cleverly edited chat transcript showcasing your keen real-time insights from throughout the day,

5) Appear to be a brilliant trader (well you are one, aren’t you?),

6) After duping a gullible and uninformed public, secretly return to your soul-crushing day job at the office (this is how you actually pay the bills when you’re not playing guru).

(Another in the TGIF series)

I am interested in getting one PDF issue of each of the following newsletters:

• Bob J. Brinker’s Marketimer ($5) (Thanks, Jon)
• The Chartist ($5) (Thanks, Bill)
• The Dines Letter ($5) (Thanks, Jason)
• Dow Theory Letters ($5) (Thanks, Jennifer)
• The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($5)
• FredHager.com ($5)
• InvesTech Market Analyst ($5) (Thanks, Jennifer)
• John Dessauer’s Investor’s World ($5)
• Lowry’s Power & Velocity Ratings ($5)
• MPT Review ($5)
• The Prudent Speculator ($5) (Thanks, Bill)

I’m not looking for the most recent issue; any old issue will do as long as it’s complete. Don’t send me a copy immediately since someone else may have already done so and claimed the five smackeroos. Just email me to tell me you’ve got the goods and then we’ll do the deal.

Thanks for your help!

A look at Crude as it trades around $91. The purple dashed line is the “stop” level for shorts taken based on the Sequential countdown, i.e. if you shorted Crude anticipating a trend reversal after the recent 13 count, then you should be prepared to cover this short (at a loss) when price trades above the level marked by the purple dashed line.

Click to enlarge (Hourly Crude)

Buffett Says Investors Should Be `Cautious’ on China

“We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring. We buy stocks because we’re confident of the company’s growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising. If you understand a business and buy at a reasonable price, there’s no risk. We’ve never realized a loss because we understand the businesses that we buy in.'’

I gave up counseling “caution” about 3,000 Index points ago. You can’t do battle with the combination of animal spirits and captive capital.

(And what’s this about “never realizing a loss,” Warren? Selective memory, old age, hubris? Which is it?)

Commenter Pete hipped me to the Longtop Financial Technologies IPO. Can you guys share what website you use to stay on top of IPOs? What do you think is the best one? Thanks.

Nice screen which uses Fed Funds futures and options data to graph expectations for the Target Rate. It’s now showing a 65.8% chance of a move to 4.50% — quite a change from last week’s expectations.

Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg)

This is an old list that appeared in the June 5, 2006 Chinese edition of Fortune. I love lists and brand rankings don’t change too much over time so I thought I’d post it (homegrown Chinese brands are in bold):

1. BMW
2. Microsoft
3. Intel
4. Mercedes Benz
5. Coca Cola
6. IBM
7. Haier
8. Nokia
9. Wuliangye
10. Kweichou Moutai
11. Airbus
12. Porsche
13. Audi
14. Lenovo
15. Motorola
16. Wal-Mart
17. Boeing
18. Google
19. Tongrentang
20. Tsingtao
21. Pepsi
22. Siemens
23. Sony
24. Nike
25. General Motors

SIV Shock, Inflation Make U.S. Treasuries Unbeatable

“Two-year notes returned 7.9 percent in 2001, including reinvested interest, the most since 1995. Ten-year Treasuries handed investors 4.3 percent that year.”

I couldn’t find a yield chart for the two-year note to save my life (anyone know the symbol?), but here’s a chart of the five-year yield. Check out that slide from the high on June 13th at 5.241% to the September 10th low at 3.955%. That’s some serious “fright” to quality. Elliott Wave fans will recognize the “textbook” A-B-C retracement during September/October. Bond traders should be thriving on this volatility.

Click to enlarge (Daily chart, Five-Year Note Yield)