November 21, 2007


Monthly View of Freddie and Fannie

You can see from the long-term charts that Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) went nowhere for many years (around a decade!) before this recent collapse. Chartists, at least the ones who keep it simple, shouldn’t be mocked.


Click to enlarge (FRE Monthly)



Click to enlarge (FNM Monthly)

November 20, 2007


Banking on Gullibility and Inertia

Another 7,000 word piece from Michael Lewis, The Evolution of an Investor. How much do you think Conde Nast pays Lewis to write this kind of thing?

“His job, as he now defines it, is to tell investors that the smartest thing they can do is nothing. He acts as a brake on, rather than an accelerator for, their emotions. For that, he takes between one-half of a percent and 1 percent annually, which is more than they’d pay if they simply bought index funds on their own. ‘I tell them, ‘Look, if you can control your own emotions and you want to go to Vanguard, you should do it.’ And every now and then, someone asks the question, ‘Why do I need you, Blaine? What are you doing?’ And I say, ‘Howard, be careful or I’m going to send you back to Smith Barney.’ And they laugh. But they know exactly what I mean.’”

50 to 100 bps a year for keeping his investors in index funds — maybe the sweetest racket of all.


Menu for Xiabu Xiabu (呷哺呷哺)

Xiabu Xiabu is a popular chain of hotpot restaurants in Beijing. Like most Chinese websites, Xiabu Xiabu’s is extremely annoying (flash, terrible navigation, embedded music, etc.) and lacks certain critical information, like the menu:


The Law of Historical Memory

Monuments and memory, by Louis Bickford

“The original text … proclaimed the ‘eternal friendship between the German Democratic Republic and the Soviet Union.’ After German reunification in 1990, designers added a transparent piece of plastic on which they inscribed a new narrative, while the old can still be seen under the cover.”

Creative approach, I like it. I expect that during my lifetime a certain someone’s portrait will be removed from the front of a certain large gate across from a certain enormous square in the center of the city where I now live.


On Treadmills and Spaceships

CNBC’s typo-strewn transcript from Warren Buffett’s Statement to Congress on Estate Taxes. Do people not read anymore? Do they just watch video clips?

“[Since 1987], the average American went exactly nowhere on the economic front. His income went from a median $26,061 to $48,201, almost exactly the increase of the CPI during the 20 years. He’s been on a treadmill while the super rich have been on a spaceship.”

Hang on, Warren. What do the median income numbers look like from 1977, 1967, and 1957? Hasn’t median income been stagnant for closer to 40 years?


Citigroup Recommends Overweighting Citigroup

Citigroup Downgraded to `Sell’ at Goldman Sachs

This line made me chuckle (with some pain since I’m a long-time C shareholder):

“… Citigroup recommended that investors buy U.S. bank stocks. New York-based analyst Tobias Levkovich raised his rating on the companies to ‘overweight’ from ‘market weight’ because of ‘compelling valuation, depressed earnings revision data and awful investor sentiment.’”

Here are the daily, 120-minute, and dividend yield charts for Citigroup (C):


Click to enlarge (C Daily)

Click to enlarge (C 120-minute)

Click to enlarge (C dividend yield)

November 19, 2007


A China Scholar Stuck in the Past

New book on China raises a storm, by Richard Bernstein

“The questions have always been: How much should the United States publicly criticize China for its numerous, egregious human rights violations and how much does the human rights goal have to be accommodated to China’s power and importance?”

Wrong. The question has always been: How much should the United States publicly criticize China for its numerous, egregious human rights violations and how much should we expect that the human rights goal will naturally be achieved by strong and rapid economic growth and the resulting emergence of a large, educated, sophisticated middle class who will create a civil society on their own?

“… some China scholars criticize Mann for concentrating so much on political reform that he has failed to appreciate the enormous beneficial changes that have occurred in China over the past decade, where a middle class of perhaps 200 million to 300 million people has come into existence enjoying a degree of personal autonomy that would have been unthinkable 15 or so years ago.”

Correct. As someone who was living in China in 1990 (my junior year abroad in college) and who lives here today, I can say that the differences between then and now are breathtaking, and nearly all for the better (aside from the catastrophic destruction of the natural environment).


Absolutely Fabulous, Darling

I bought a new sport coat from Ralph Lauren. It’s black velvet with a Mandarin collar, and has a red silk lining and silver buttons. The closest thing I can find online is this Heritage Velvet Sport Coat.

“Strike the perfect balance of elegance and casual with the subtle sheen and rich color of our velvet sport coat.”

I know it looks smashing because I’ve already had two men hit on me this morning.

dahhhhlink

Car Insurance Bill in Beijing

Here’s the bill for a year’s worth of car insurance in Beijing. This is to insure a 2005 Nissan Tiida. The top invoice is for the mandatory insurance (945 yuan = $126) and the bottom invoice is for the added insurance (theft, smashed glass, bumping up protection, etc.) (3017.19 yuan = $402.29).

Grand total: 3,962.19 yuan or $528.29. What do you pay for a year’s worth of car insurance?

Related:

Oil Change Bill in Beijing
Heating Bill in Beijing
Bill from Visit to Pediatrician in Beijing


Oil Change Bill in Beijing

Here’s the bill from having the car’s oil changed. I know only suckers have their cars serviced at the dealer, but I don’t know any local mechanics so I pay a premium to have it done at the dealer where I trust (hope?) that the materials are genuine and the labor competent. Sacrificing accuracy for convenience, I’m using 7.5 as the exchange rate.

Labor: 108 yuan ($14.40 ($16 hourly rate))
Oil Filter: 28 yuan ($3.73)
Oil (5W-30, 4 liters): 260 yuan ($34.67) — seems high!
Brake light bulb replacement: 10 yuan ($1.33)

Grand total: 406 yuan ($54.13)

(They also wash and wax the car and clean its interior.)

What do you pay to have your oil changed? (Remember to tell us where you’re located.)

Related:

Heating Bill in Beijing
Bill from Visit to Pediatrician in Beijing

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