January 4, 2009
7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund Reverses
Lots of significant reversals among the 125 ETFs I follow for the newsletter. Perhaps most importantly, the system is finally selling the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) which it has been long since November 2007. Friends in Canada and Australia should know that the system is covering shorts in those equity markets and going long on Monday. Readers from Brazil, Russia, India, and China already know that the system got long their markets back in December.
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Cat: | Time: 1:32 pm (utc+8)
January 4th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
welcome back and happy new year.
what does your system think about oil? it is not clear cut looking at USO, but DTO (the double inverse ETN) had a massive reversal on Friday according to my charts. Interestingly TLT, is just about to reverse for me, similar to IEF for you.
January 5th, 2009 at 5:37 am
@Born2: Same to you! Still short USO (from $93.55) though DIG, IEO, and XOP all reversed from short to long this week. The Ultras tend to lead but of course they’re so erratic that you can’t trust them for anything other than daytrading.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
I went long DXO (double long oil) last week. What do you think of ETNs? They look good to me as long as Deutsche Bank remains solvent.
January 5th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@Anthony: I don’t know the technical differences between ETNs and ETFs … the system still thinks USO/OIL is in a downtrend, but as you know it takes it time to reverse and large amounts of “profits” can be given back before the switch is finally made.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
ETF’s are funds that buy the actual (or underlying) assets, or in the case of leverage funds, the Futures and Swap contracts.
ETNs do not buy/sell any assets. They just track the asset with a promise of the issues to pay you the price. Kind of like the FIAT currency of the stock market. Reminds me of the Pit Buckets mentioned in Livermoore’s book.
January 8th, 2009 at 5:09 am
Chairman,
Is a sell of something through the ETF system the equivalent of a “get short here.” Is there some distinction between sales of positions that were originally bought long.
Versus short entries and then a buy signal as the exit for those?
Thanks you.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
@Soulek: I think it may be useful to have some kind of bias going in and say I’m more interested in the short side than the long and so I’ll only take things on the short side or the long that come up I’ll size smaller, if you see what I mean. Or you could just play it straight and reverse every time from long to short and short to long.