June 6, 2008
A Few Notes on the Chinese Consumer
A few selected excerpts (with my notes in []) from the latest China Consumer Survey (192 pages of pure gold) from CSFB:
Average monthly household after-tax income tier-1 cities (RMB) 5,374 (2004) 6,046 (2005) 5,703 (2006) 7,203 (2007)
Average monthly household after-tax income (RMB) 4,486 (2004 etc) 5,081 5,043 6,180
Median monthly household after-tax income (RMB) 3,770 (2004 etc) 3,940 4,200 4,790
Average monthly after-tax personal income (RMB) 2,013 (2004 etc) 2,121 2,129 2,500
“Experiences in the US and Japan indicate that when per-capita GDP reaches around US$2,000 (in 1951 for the US and 1970 for Japan), private consumption starts to become the key driver of the national economy, reflected in rising private consumption as a percentage of GDP.” [As I’ve said again and again, “per-capita” is the wrong way to try to understand anything in China.]
“only about 20% of urban households own a car” [$200 a barrel crude is a gimme]
Planned budget for new auto purchase (RMB ’000) 131.3 (2004) 146.0 (2005) 128.4 (2006) 166.8 (2007)
Average spending per restaurant meal (RMB) 49.9 (2004 etc) 51.1 51.1 56.5
Planned budget for handsets current owners (RMB) 2,138 (2004 etc) 2,202 2,162 2,138 [that’s a lot of money, even if there’s no growth (normal tech price deflation)]
Total monthly spending on online games (RMB) - 68.7 (2005 etc) 59.2 65.2 [not a category in 2004]
Budget for overseas travel in next year (RMB) 14,760 (2004 etc) 16,438 13,532 15,852 [this is why you *must* own CTRP]
“respondents with college or above educations expect 26% income growth” [great expectations]
“We think that the official data is underestimating the income of Chinese residents, mainly due to under-reporting of income by the high-income group to official statistical agencies.” [massive tax evasion in China, no collection system outside of multinationals (where the tax collection is *extremely* efficient :) )]
“Which mobile carriers are you using?” 76% Total domination by China Mobile (0941.HK) [yes, I use China Mobile]
“Which Chinese brands of sports clothing or sports shoes have you bought?” 50% Li Ning dominates among domestic brands (2331.HK) [I remember well the incredulity when I first asked ‘who in god’s name is Li Ning?’]
“Which is your favourite online game?” 20% QQ game zone (0700.HK)
“Which instant messaging software do you use most frequently?” QQ (again) 47% [though in my experience here in Beijing, MSN has huge share]
“Which blog site do you use most frequently?” 23% Sina (SINA (Nasdaq))
“Which search engine do you use most frequently?” 61% Baidu (BIDU (Nasdaq)) [I’m a Google man myself but they have a tough row to hoe here.]
“Which portal do you use most frequently?” Sina and Sohu dominate [I can’t bear to visit these because of the blinky flashies and incredibly dense text, but the locals are unphased by the horrific design.]
June 6th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Excellent insights -thank you.
June 6th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Great site, but this post was particularly interesting.
June 6th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
who in god’s name is Li Ning?
June 7th, 2008 at 2:37 am
A very famous Chinese gymnast, “Prince of gymnastics“.
June 7th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Hey Chairman, some talking head claims the chinese are standing in line for fuel(diesel), whats the deal? I don’t think he meant the earthquake areas.
June 7th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Hudson: I’ve heard of diesel shortages but never seen anyone lined up for gas … Beijing probably isn’t representative and it’s all I know.