December 31, 2007
A Fondness for Financials
From this week’s interview with Richard Pzena in Barron’s:
“Whenever investors become hypersensitive to the next piece of information, value opportunities arise. You have to have a strong stomach to do this. I always joke about it, but the most common question we get from clients in any market environment is ‘don’t you read the paper? How could you possibly do this, given what is going on?’ And the response is, these shares don’t trade at these valuations unless this kind of stuff is going on. If this proves to be fatal to Citi or Fannie or Freddie, we’ll get killed. If it proves not to be fatal, as we suspect, then over the long term we’re going to make a lot of money.”
I agree, but it’s tough when the prices you pay, which you think are a bargain, then fall another 25% to 50%.
(If you’re wondering how I’m able to read Barron’s without paying for it, read this post.)
December 31st, 2007 at 1:46 pm
It’s an interesting puzzle. I imagine it’s hard to be a detached observer when you have real money on the line however.
I note that my trend following weekly template indicates some choice buying spots from 1990-2007 when the down trend switches to neutral, at the moment C is still in a strong down trend.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:49 pm
The only real question that applies here is ” is it different this time?”.
On the one hand the fed may flood us into a rising tide and business carries on as usual.
On the other hand the fed may allow what was started to come to fruition and we end up with a few new currencies where there were once many.
There’s too many other stocks with good charts to bother with predatory, criminal enterprises.
January 1st, 2008 at 12:41 am
Pzena is stating the painfully obvious, but money always seeks to go where it is treated best, and right now there are more freindly options.
January 2nd, 2008 at 7:20 am
The problem with financials is there still is some pain to come whereas tech has the allure of earnings acceleration. I don’t see how you can choose Financials over Tech unless it’s an ego, “look I called the bottom” sort of thing.
January 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 am
contracan: The thing with many financials is that even if earnings recover a tiny bit over the next several years, then current prices are low. It isn’t ego so much as being able to recognize an undervalued asset when you see one.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
CM, happy new year. Remember that “cheap” and “value” are not the same thing. A cheap stock does not have to move up again for a long time. A value stock will get accumulated by like minded value hunters and the chart will show it when that happens. at such time we can jump along for the ride.
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
B2C: Thx. Yes, I mean cheap as in bargain as in undervalued… I promis to be better about not catching knives in the future. :-)
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:33 am
Fellow WM victim sings for his supper here.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
bjk: A lot of value guys have been buried in these seemingly cheap stocks — misery loves company? ;-)
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
I wonder if a lot of value guys are in there and those stocks keep getting pummeled, then who’s taking the other side? Shorter term momentum guys? Non-traditional hedge funds? The general public? All of the above? :-)
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:36 pm
eyal: You mean who’s selling to those beleagured value players? EVERYONE ELSE ON THE PLANET. :-)