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January 18, 2008


AMBAC Ack! MBIA DOA?

MBIA, Ambac Tumble, Default Risk Soars After Losses

“New York-based Ambac dropped 52 percent and Armonk, New York-based MBIA fell 31 percent as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s increased their scrutiny of bond insurers. Credit-default swaps on both guarantors rose to records, signifying investors see a growing chance that the companies won’t be able to pay their debt.”


Click to enlarge (CDS Spreads for ABK and MBI)



Click to enlarge (Intraday Chart, ABK)



Click to enlarge (Intraday Chart, MBI)

Related: Patient Pershing’s Philanthropic Profit Pledge

6 Responses to “AMBAC Ack! MBIA DOA?”

  1. Mike said:

    Ackman = correct

  2. C. Maoxian said:

    Mike: Right, Ack!man is the ax on ABK. :)

  3. Capital Gain said:

    Back in Oct. I bought Jan and Feb 25 ABK puts and Jan and Feb 35 MBI puts and have been feeling pretty smug about it until today - I sold all my Jan contracts yesterday.

    I also bought Jan 200 AAPL calls back then as well. Ouch.

  4. C. Maoxian said:

    Cap: I knew this post would drag you out of the woodwork to proclaim your brilliance! :) Nice work but you still have less money than Ack!man.

  5. CapitalGain said:

    Brilliance!? I appreciate the sentiment, but I sold those jans 18 hours before they both tanked 50%+. Dummy is more like it.

    The collapse of MBI and ABK is going to really hurt some of the Ibanks, two in particular, good shorting opportunities.

    Matter of fact, the number of potential trades right now is huge, but that’s OT and results in a trip to the wood shed. :-)

  6. C. Maoxian said:

    Cap: Ah, the time difference confused me, my yesterday is your day before yesterday … that’s some bad luck for you… but you must have still made a bundle.

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