October 23, 2008
Arjun Murti Sitting Uncomfortably on His Super Spike
Oil Falls to 16-Month Low, Gasoline Tumbles, as Demand Declines
“Prices have tumbled 55 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11.”
Don’t worry super spike guys from Goldman, the Bloomberg story will deprecate (fall off the web) in time and your call will be forgotten. Meanwhile, foolish bloggers who maintain permalinks will live in infamy.
Cat: | Time: 10:20 am (utc+8)
October 23rd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Chairman -
Your views are really appreciated.
If people are most bullish at tops, it is getting closer everyday to rather too pessimistic.
Did the world really change that much in 6 months?
Seems to me that a long dated (years) is what people should be looking at here.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
@Mako: Thanks Mako, but you know “valuation” is a tricky business as is “gauging sentiment” … I’m now old enough to consider being purely a trend follower and damn everything else (meaning the trend is still down despite the “crazy valuations” and “extreme pessimism”). Look for my trend-following newsletter to be released soon. :)
October 24th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Chairman, I can’t wait for your trend following newsletter. I’m starting to think the same way: if it’s trending don’t ask why, just ride it. I just wanted to add, I imagine T-Boone’s feeling pretty uncomfortable as well. He’s been pounding the table on peak oil for a while and now he’s watching his net worth drop like a .com stock. Ouch.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:53 am
Look you have to start taking a more Buffet style approach. If something is cheap enough that you will be happy enough owning it now, then buy it.
Yesterday I bought some FCX at 27 even, today is down a couple of cents. So what?
If the world really is gonna end…then why bother avoiding losses? My take is that we are starting to flood the world with US$ and bonds, so what I am doing is selling those off and owning stocks. Oddly enough, real estate in the US is going to be a good deal in a few years too. Nothing like good old fashioned inflation to make it obvious that things have changed, yet again.
So my net worth gyrates on a crazy basis daily with the changes in the stock market. I gave up essentially trying to trade it the last couple of weeks and bought stuff I want to own in 5 years.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:48 am
@George: I’m looking forward to writing it.
@Allen: My Buffett-esque buys are deep underwater (many of them) and I think I’m smart enough to identify trends *and* value to do better in future.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
some permalinks are more permanent than others: crude oil bubble
;-)
October 24th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
@Babak: You don’t get points for pointing out bubbles; they only write a check when you correctly point out the turn (more or less precisely as it happens). :)
October 24th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
To recap the obvious: We’re one period into the 3 period trender and oil keeps going down?
October 24th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
@BG: The three-period trender on the weekly chart flipped back in July … I’m not sure what you mean by “one period into…” but yes, oil is trending down.