Goldman’s Murti Says Oil `Likely’ to Reach $150-$200

“‘The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months,’ the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5. ‘The core of our super-spike view has been that a lack of adequate supply growth coupled with price-insulated non-OECD demand growth’ is leading to higher prices.”

Anyone can slap a regression channel on a chart, which is probably what the Goldman guys did to come up with this not-the-least-bit-bold forecast.

Click to enlarge (Crude, Monthly chart)

800 Chinese Yuan, of course. These are weekly charts I like to look at: crude denominated in Euros (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNY), and Dollars (USD). I’ve marked the percentage moves off the January 2007 low: crude is up 87.48% in Euro terms, 107.61% in Yuan terms, and 130.88% in Dollar terms, over that time.

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil futures, CNY-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, futures, EUR-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, futures, USD-denominated)

Related:

Gold and Crude in Dollars, Euros, and Yuan (March 13, 2008)

Long Term Look at Crude Oil Prices (in both USD and CNY) (September 13, 2007)

Here’s a picture I snapped of the pump yesterday after filling up the car with gas:

RMB240 is around US$34.23 at current exchange rates. I put 44.94 liters in the tank, which is around 11.87 gallons. The price per liter is currently RMB5.34 or US$0.76, and one gallon is around 3.79 liters, so the price per gallon is around US$2.88.

Now you may ask, how can the Chinese afford to pay around the same price that Americans pay for gas? The answer is the vast majority can’t, but there’s a large and rapidly growing middle class here who can.

Dollar Trades at Record Low Versus Euro as Fed Plan Disappoints

“Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that ‘we are not convinced that yesterday’s move will solve all the multiple challenges facing credit markets and the financial system.’”

Everyone knows that Gentle Ben’s bank bailout / reflation plan is murder on the dollar. I thought it would be fun (eye-opening?) to post the charts of crude oil and gold, denominated in dollars, euros, and yuan, so here they are:

Click to enlarge (US Dollar Index)

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Dollar-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Gold, Dollar-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Euro-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Gold, Euro-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Yuan-denominated)

Click to enlarge (Gold, Yuan-denominated)

Oil Hits Record $100.10

“Yesterday, futures soared $4.51, or 4.7 percent, to settle at $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was a record closing price and the first time Nymex futures have closed above $100 a barrel. Futures reached $100.10, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983.”

Yet another unintended effect of Gentle Ben’s reflation / bank bailout plan.

Click to enlarge (Crude Oil futures (generic), Volume-at-Price)

Related: Checking Up on Crude Earl & the Yeller Metal - January 3, 2008

Commodities Surge, Led by Oil at $100, Record Gold

“Crude oil reached a record $100 a barrel and spot gold climbed to $860.10 an ounce… ‘Anything priced in dollars has to move higher to make up for the declining dollar.’”

I recall a cocky jerk, back on November 1, you know, one of those nobody bloggers, saying Crude Will Hit $100 No Problemo. Sure, it traded down below $86 in the meantime, but who’s gonna call him on that?

Click to enlarge (Hourly Crude)

That same smartass was looking for gold to hit $888. Doesn’t matter that he top-ticked a high with that call — the major trend will no doubt bail him out in the end, as it does most idiot guessers who happen to be on the right side of things.

Click to enlarge (Daily Gold)

Related: The Wind at One’s Back: Long Crude, Short Dollars

Sticking Firmly with a Totally Arbitrary Price Target for Crude

Day traders who were happily long during the morning with a nice broad market tailwind behind them received a jolt around 2 PM when oil turned higher and the tone took a nasty turn. A scramble to raise stops probably saved the day from turning into a loss for most. If you haven’t put USO on your “front and center” quote sheet, you should.