Drop me an email if you’d like to join the club.

Chart last updated through July 1, 2008

Related: Animated Trading Lesson from the Box: Short UAUA

The Box was looking at Lehman (LEH) from the short side back in April and subscribers received this idea for April 28:

The trade didn’t trigger or fill so it was discarded. The May 2 bar would have taken us out for a loss anyway (though getting short beneath that reversal bar at $46.51 would have been perfect). In any event, I just wanted to show that the Box’s thinking is often good… but timing is everything and being “close” doesn’t mean a damn.

Thought I’d try an experiment with these animated charts … here’s a recent short idea from the Box — the lead up to the set-up and the aftermath. Let me know if you like this kind of thing, how I can improve it, make it more instructive, etc. I’ll make more of them if people like them.

Related: Will the Regional Banks Break to New Lows? (May 8, 2008)

Subscribers had a decent month in May — the Box came up with a handful of pretty good ideas. Here are selected charts and the complete spreadsheet for your review. If you’d like to subscribe, just email me to join the club. Prices are going up 50% for new subscribers in July, so June will be the last month to get in on the cheap.

Ideas from the Box in May 2008

And as I mentioned recently, some of the countertrend ideas have been very good as well. Here’s an up-to-date look at the (countertrend) GDX short:

I divide the ideas the Box comes up with into “with the trend” and “countertrend” set-ups, and encourage subscribers to ignore the latter. Nevertheless, the countertrend ideas are worth looking at because A) my read of the weekly trend could be wrong, and B) they’re often darned interesting in the context of the “with the trend” ideas.

Shorting the gold miners kind of goes together with getting long financials (the Box likes MER and MS and AXP from the long side, though they all continue to be in serious weekly downtrends). As I like to say, countertrend trades like these are best left to the deft and the daft. In any event, the Box generates a lot of food for thought, and if you’re interested in subscribing (monthly cost is less than one generous squeeze at the gas pump), just email me.

The Box is favoring the long side of late. It likes how FXI, the China ETF, has set up here; it’s looking for at least a 3.5R move. If you’d like to subscribe (monthly cost is less than a single 10 oz Kobe beef burger) to the trading ideas that the Box generates, just drop me an email.

Here is the spreadsheet and charts for all the “with the trend” ideas from the Box in March 2008. Anyone who is interested in subscribing to the Box’s trading ideas should review this post closely. These are the trading ideas in complete and original form; they are not “cherry picked” or “massaged” to look good given the benefit of hindsight.

I welcome all questions and comments!

If you’d like to subscribe (for a modest monthly fee) to these trading ideas, just drop me an email and I’ll be in touch.

Box Ideas for March 2008 (spreadsheet)

(#1 Long MCRS - no trade)

(#2 Long EWM - no trade)

(#3 Long MCRS - probable 2+R winner)

(#4 Short LLTC - no trade)

(#5 Long CVD - 1R loss)

(#6 Long HSC - 1+R loss)

(#7 Long NSC - breakeven)

(#8 Long AVP - nearly 2R winner)

(#9 Short INTC - 1R loss)

(#10 Short CSCO - breakeven)

(#11 Long YHOO - no trade)

(#12 Long TEVA - no trade (gap))

(#13 Short CEPH - no trade)

(#14 Short CSCO - 1R loss)

(#15 Short INTC - no trade)

(#16 Long PDE - nearly 3R winner)

(#17 Long SWN - 3R winner)

(#18 Short KRE - breakeven)

Here is the spreadsheet and charts for all the “with the trend” ideas from the Box in January 2008. Anyone who is interested in subscribing to the Box’s trading ideas should review this post closely. These are the trading ideas in complete and original form; they are not “cherry picked” or “massaged” to look good given the benefit of hindsight.

I welcome all questions and comments!

If you’d like to subscribe (for a modest monthly fee) to these trading ideas, just drop me an email and I’ll be in touch.

Box Ideas for January 2008 (spreadsheet)

(#1 Long APOL)

(#2 Long PII)

(#3 Long MO)

(#4 Long MO)

(#5 Long WDC)

(#6 Long ATK)

(#7 Long NST)

(#8 Long GME)

(#9 Long XRAY)

(#10 Long AME)

(#11 Long GOOG)

(#12 Long PG)

(#13 Long VZ)

(#14 Long UTX)

(#15 Long MICC)

(#16 Long USO)

(#17 Long COP)

(#18 Long VRSN)

(#19 Short IBM)

(#20 Short BEZ)

Here is the spreadsheet and charts for all the “with the trend” ideas from the Box in December 2007. Anyone who is interested in subscribing to the Box’s trading ideas should review this post closely. I will write these reviews for every month (January, February, March 2008 are all finished, I just haven’t uploaded everything yet). These are the trading ideas in complete and original form; they are not “cherry picked” or “massaged” to look good given the benefit of hindsight.

I welcome all questions and comments!

If you’d like to subscribe (for a modest monthly fee) to these trading ideas, just drop me an email and I’ll be in touch.

Box Ideas for December 2007 (spreadsheet)

(#1 Short CROX)

(#2 Short MAN)

(#3 Short MSCC)

(#4 Short ZNT)

(#5 Short LINTA)

(#6 Long VRSN)

(#7 Long PPDI)

(#8 Long PPDI)

(#9 Long SM)

(#10 Short AYI)

(#11 Short LLTC)