Whole Foods plunged on an earnings’ miss and no one is buying the company’s “guidance” :

“The retailer reiterated its forecast for full-year same- store sales growth of as much as 9.5 percent and said total revenue would increase as much as 30 percent.”

The Box shorted WFMI below $34.58. Anyone who reads the blog was alerted to it because I gave this one as a freebie. If you’d like to subscribe (for a modest monthly fee) to the Box’s trading ideas, just drop me an email. I’m now limiting the newsletter to 100 subscribers to build a nice, manageable, semi-exclusive group of folks I like interacting with closely (via email).

Related:
Toasting Aspirations to Artisan Bread May 10, 2008 (Perhaps too cryptic a title?)
Short Artisan Bread as Busted Boomers Tighten Belts, May 3, 2008
A Look at WFMI’s After-Hours Action, November 4, 2006
The End of Whole Foods’ Fabulous Run, or, Pass the Mac & Cheese Please, August 10, 2006

Seems like whenever I give a freebie, like shorting WFMI, the idea tends to work out. The initial protective stop should be moved to breakeven now, making this trade a scratch at worst.

Here’s the thinking: folks are upside down on their McMansion, the Escalade they lease to outdo (not just keep up with) the Jones’s next door costs $100+ to fill with gas, and taxes are going up up up to bail out their profligate local government. There’s just no place in their lives for artisan bread these days. So many wannabes having to give up the life that TV has taught them to live (go ahead, you deserve it!).

Incidentally I still get emails of thanks for my August 10, 2006 post: The End of Whole Foods’ Fabulous Run, or, Pass the Mac & Cheese Please

Subscribers currently have a short in the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) with a target zone of $32.41 to $31.81. That’s a really critical level for KRE since $32ish acted as key support during the dark days earlier this year.

On a side note, I’m limiting the number of subscribers to the Box to an even 100 people. This should help me keep things simple and a make it a little more exclusive (I can also toss any gripers out this way — let me say here that 99% of my current subscribers are beautiful, generous people).

One of the Box’s better ideas in early April was a short in SBUX (see spreadsheet here).

The problem is that following the ABC Stop Method would have gotten you out seven days before SBUX blew up — true, at a profit, but a much smaller profit than could have been had.

In future, I’m offering the ideas but won’t track them. I simply suggest managing all open positions in one of three ways:

• Plan A: Move the initial protective stop to breakeven when price closes beyond one times initial risk; begin trailing stop when price closes beyond two times initial risk.
• Plan B: Move the initial protective stop to breakeven when price closes beyond one times initial risk; begin trailing stop when price closes within the Target Zone.
• Plan C: Stay with the initial protective stop until price closes within the Target Zone, and then begin trailing.

I’ve been thinking of calling the newsletter, in honor of this new habit of not tracking anything, “The Unaccountable Trader.”

Click to enlarge (SBUX, Daily chart)

The Box found four shorts for Monday, including Whole Foods:

PETM, the freebie I gave out yesterday broke quite hard. It would be wise to move the initial protective stop to breakeven, making the trade a scratch at worst. MNST, the other freebie set-up, didn’t trigger. If you’re looking for sensible trading set-ups that offer decent risk/reward, subscribe today. If you’re looking for some sure-fire “system” that you can use to unthinkingly print money with, please DO NOT SUBSCRIBE.

Here are two freebies for Wednesday, April 30. The details for these set-ups, in addition to the details for all the ideas from April, can be reviewed here:

Trading Ideas, April 2008

On Tuesday last week, the Box was looking for UAUA to go as low as $11.91 - $13.30. I told subscribers that seemed “ambitious,” but I was wrong again. In any event, the trade didn’t trigger or fill so we missed it anyway. Darn.

GOOG reported “surprisingly” good earnings and the stock flew over $525 after-hours. You’ll recall that I was looking forward to $400.

Now it’s true that trailing the stop via the ABC Method would have had you out before this terrible whammy, but I don’t think all my subscribers follow the letter of the “law.”

PICC reported bad earnings today and the stock plunged. Happily this stock was one of the freebie short plays I offered to Hong Kong traders last week.

Like CTAS, it ain’t magic. It’s just a matter of being at the right place at the right time on the right side of the trend.