July 6, 2007
China A-Share Turnover Pointing to More Weakness Ahead?
I thought it would be useful to post a chart of the Shanghai Composite Index together with the A-Share turnover chart. The Shanghai Composite peaked on May 29th at 4,336. The A-Share turnover peaked on May 30th at $35 billion after the market broke following the stamp tax news. (Prior to the market break, I wrote posts on May 25th and 26th about the crazy turnover.)
Anyway, you can see from the chart below that the rally in June back to the May high happened on much less turnover, forming an obvious “divergence” to anyone who was watching. The Shanghai market rallied strongly today but you can see that the A-Share turnover today was about half as much as the prior reversal low back on June 5. Obviously the daily trend has shifted down in the SHCOMP and the lackluster A-Share turnover could be foreshadowing more weakness to come.
Anecdotally, the people I talk to on the street here in Beijing all have this idea that “the government won’t allow the market to fall before the 2008 Olympics,” which I think is just nuts. How do you say “moral hazard” in Chinese?
July 7th, 2007 at 12:42 am
You are probably right, but in terms of impact for other markets (regionally etc), I think this is not an issue.
Most institutional investors have little to do with the Chinese market - most invest through H shares on HKEX. The market is probably suffering a pre-QDII weakening, which is no surprise - will benefit HK and probably Singapore.
Shouldn’t be a big deal..
July 7th, 2007 at 4:55 am
Over here, you hear the same arguments from Chinese stock owners, including Ming.
I put my bet on Chinese currency.
July 7th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Joy: How did you bet on the CNY? Did you exchange USD and then deposit the RMB in a NJ-based bank? Are there RMB-denominated savings accounts available?
July 7th, 2007 at 9:19 pm
There are lots of RMB denominated savings accounts available.
I suggest having a look at the new RMB bonds issued by banks. One has just closed, but more to come.
July 7th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
PA: But you’re in Hong Kong and Joy is in New Jersey, no?
July 8th, 2007 at 5:20 am
I think US residents can get RMB savings accounts at Everbank. Jim Grant wrote about it in Forbes sometime back. Not sure if it’s still the case.
July 8th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
John: Thanks, I looked at Everbank and they do offer CNY in their World Currency Access Deposit Account, but there’s a $10,000 minimum deposit and I can’t see what the interest rate is for it, and more important I can’t see the fee schedule for this account.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Yep sorry I’m in HK.
Interest rates for RMB is crap at the moment…. it’s 58bps from HSBC in HK
July 10th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
Ming has relative in China. RMB ACCOUNT, small business in CHINA… And I also mean diversify into Chinese Stock, buy power shares such as DBV, etc.
July 10th, 2007 at 11:59 pm
EVERBANK offers lots of exotic things, JAPANESE REAL ESTATE CD, COMMODITY INDEX CD.. It is mainly for the more affluent customers(such as my old neighbor, MCGRAW HILL’s senior executive), and you might need a broker to get in.
July 11th, 2007 at 12:30 am
Joy: I don’t know what Everbank’s fees are like but I’d probably not be pleased with them.