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August 5, 2008


Commodities Bulls CRYing

CRB Commodity Index Caps Biggest One-Day Decline Since March

“The CRB Index (CRY) slid 10 percent in July [after] posting its best first half in 35 years, gaining 29 percent in the first six months of 2008 as investors stocked up on raw materials as an alternative to stocks and bonds and as a hedge against the weakening dollar.”

Is there a major trend change underway here or is this just a “correction” in an on-going bull market? From a trend trader’s perspective, until the weekly flips down you have to play the long side and all short plays must be considered “counter-trend” — best handled by the deft and the daft.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 5th, 2008 at 2:30 pm (utc+8) and is filed under Energies, Metals, Agriculture.

9 Responses to “Commodities Bulls CRYing”

  1. Robert Paulson said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 12:46 am

    hmm

    interesting

  2. brandon said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 10:52 am

    CM: I have a huge problem with trading according to the time frame, and I would REALLY appreciate if you can explain why trend trader use weekly rather than monthly for the trade. Isn’t monthly reduce more noise than weeky?

  3. bravochico said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 11:17 am

    Weekly getting close to going neutral.

    Robert..thanks for your insight, what would we do without them…

  4. C. Maoxian said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 1:41 pm

    @brandon: I guess you could look at the monthly as well but that’s getting pretty far out there. You should be aware of trend (or non-nontrend) on *all* time frames and how they inter-relate — that’s the trick.

  5. brandon said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 4:01 pm

    CM: Big thank you for your comment. I just went back and read your ‘Short Term Trading’ lessons in the archive, and I am sure I will reread the lessons again–they are F..cking PRICELESS.

  6. brandon said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 4:02 pm

    CM: And thanks for running such a cool website.

  7. C. Maoxian said:
    August 6th, 2008 at 4:46 pm

    brandon: Thanks. Looking forward to getting back to posting my trades along with confirmation slips and complete results (assuming they’re worth writing about, lol).

  8. Lawrence Chiu said:
    August 7th, 2008 at 11:59 am

    The commodity’s run is not over. It has merely returned to its long-term trend line. The problem is that it went parabolic from 2003 to 2007. The following show that it has merely returned to its trend-line.

    Link to chart:
    http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/762/crxbg9.jpg

  9. Anthony said:
    August 8th, 2008 at 4:50 pm

    How low will energy go? Natural gas keeps going lower even with bullish news. I follow VegasSnitch.com who became famous 10 years ago when they guaranteed 100 dollar oil and 1000 gold. They keep saying commodities will run again and harder, but why is the part I don’t get

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