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January 19, 2007


Consumers Unaffected by So-Called Housing Bust, and Other Market Observations

Worst day of selling I’ve seen since last November 27th, but look who’s on the new highs list: the Retail HOLDR (RTH) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY). Do you listen to talking heads blather about a “housing bust” and the bedraggled American consumer or do you listen to what the market is saying?

xly and rth aint suffering

Review the Consumer Discretionary SPDR Components (SBUX the tenth largest holding, ha!)

This entry was posted on Friday, January 19th, 2007 at 10:35 am (utc+8) and is filed under Trading and Investing.

9 Responses to “Consumers Unaffected by So-Called Housing Bust, and Other Market Observations”

  1. Bill aka NO DooDahs! said:
    January 19th, 2007 at 1:11 pm

    I’m gonna listen to the economists and macro gurus, and buy lots of index puts. Housing, when it collapses, will certainly bring down both the economy and the stock market, driving us into a deflationary spiral. Also, I will be leveraging into precious metals. Buy gold now!

    ;-)

  2. C. Maoxian said:
    January 19th, 2007 at 2:34 pm

    Bill: When’s your $3,000 seminar happening, and I heard you have a newsletter, yes? ;-)

  3. jp said:
    January 19th, 2007 at 3:43 pm

    Great observation. I was not aware of this. Thanks.

  4. C. Maoxian said:
    January 19th, 2007 at 5:08 pm

    jp: I just bought a $3 Caramel Macchiato for one of my girlfriends, but of course things are booming here. ;-)

  5. Steve Austin said:
    January 19th, 2007 at 11:41 pm

    Chairman, Caramel Macchiato sounds like the *name* of one of your weekly chix / girlfriends. I think you should rename the category “SBUX models”.

  6. Peter said:
    January 20th, 2007 at 12:09 am

    im going to buy silver…. (-:

    “And let’s not forget silver, which will make the rise in gold seem trifling. And for today’s episode of Incredible Market Fundamentals (IMF), we feature the famous silver expert Ted Butler, quoted in James Cook’s Market Update from InvestmentRarity.com, who says that he figures that the total short position in silver is a billion ounces! A billion!

    Isn’t the entire physical supply of silver in the Comex warehouses around 200 million ounces or so? And a billion ounces of paper silver have been created and sold short against this measly 200 million ounces of bullion available to settle the contracts? Wow!

    Against this huge, huge, HUGE potential short squeeze in silver, which will make the price of silver go to the moon when somebody wants his silver and can’t get it because the slimebags infesting the commodities pits can’t make good on their contracts, he also says “Silver historically had its biggest gains in past recessions”! It just keeps getting better and better!

    So, if you are not buying silver at these astonishing revelations, then you are indeed a raw rookie at this investing stuff. So watch and learn, my ignorant little one!”

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG011507.html

  7. Ollie said:
    January 20th, 2007 at 1:33 am

    …
    “It’s under-priced compared to other industrial metals, precious metals, oil, real estate, stock and bonds, EVEN ITSELF when [looking] at it on a historical inflation-adjusted basis”

    I’ve looked into this, and was surprised to learn that I’m severely undervalued compared to myself, on a historical basis. Hmmm, I wonder if a tax-free spinoff of part of me would work…

  8. C. Maoxian said:
    January 20th, 2007 at 12:01 pm

    Ollie: My wife is considering spinning me off; I’m apparently very taxing to be around. ;-)

  9. Maoxian » Best & Worst Relative Performance — One Week Ending January 26, 2007 said:
    January 27th, 2007 at 2:12 pm

    […] … while Biotech got wrecked and Consumer Discretionary and Retail both took it on the chin (shortly after I wrote this, unfortunately). Cat:  […]

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