May 21, 2008
Crude Catapults on Goldman Groupthink
Oil for 2016 Surges More Than 14% to Near $140 Over Three Days
“Oil for delivery in December 2016 surged $17.08, or 14 percent, in the three trading days since Goldman Sachs forecast oil would average $141 a barrel in the second half of 2008 and $148 a barrel next year because of supply constraints.”
Sorry, that looks like a blow-off to me. No doubt the $150 to $200 a barrel target (by simple trendline extension) is a possibility, but I’d be looking down instead of up in the very short term.
Anyone who read this post from December 2005, Third Ring Road at 5:30 PM, has no excuse for missing the bull run in the Energies.
Cat: | Time: 2:27 pm (utc+8)
May 21st, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Boone Pickens says 150 oil. I am a fan of crazy old guys with tons of dough.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:23 am
Well, it is always easy to make predictions, and then subsequently use hindsight to illustrate what a great fortune teller one is, focusing only on the accurate forecasts and skipping the less accurate guesses.
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:35 am
@Dan
Didn’t T. Boone also say $80 oil before that? :)
May 22nd, 2008 at 5:24 am
looks like he is outperforming then.
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:29 am
couple weeks ago Boone said that oil is due for pull back to around $90, than when oil contiuned its run he changed the position to $150, oil guru just like all of us :)
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 am
@konrad: Fortunately T. Boone doesn’t have a blog so there’s no permanent record detailing all his flip flops and wildly wrong calls (can’t say the same for the Chairman, alas).
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:45 am
Record of T. Boone’s comments on oil prices
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
boone is a shill just like so many of ‘em…he gave reasons why he shorted oil at 100,now doing a flip.
Once oil prices drop, there would be an army of wall street pimps stating why the drop is justified and there is more ahead..
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 am
Pickens is a trader, he took a defined-risk trade at par and then covered and went long as oil broke out beyond that. That’s the essence of technical trading and that’s part of the reason why he is so rich.
I was long PTEC on the way up and now I am short after it broke down, made money both ways, does that make me a shill or a flip-flopper?
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
@pete: Thanks for the link, glad to see TickerSense still putting out interesting stuff after Hickey & Walters decamped.
@gurlate: The shrewdest guys consistently say they are doing exactly the opposite of what they’re actually doing — T. Boone is jes’ a simple country boy, ain’t that right?
@Born2: I doubt that T. Boone, like most obscenely rich guys, has ever looked at a chart in his life.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I recalled that T. Boone first call for a pull back to $80. Then he flipped first before he got on the record to tell everyone about it. Like Goldman’s new oil target, these are “traders” and they all have an agenda. They do this so that the “retail suckers” will join in the party.
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
GS prop desk is selling their long positons. You guys don’t acutally think they are adding to their longs…
May 22nd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
manuel: Well, someone somewhere is adding. :-)
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 pm
“The shrewdest guys consistently say they are doing exactly the opposite of what they’re actually doing — T. Boone is jes’ a simple country boy, ain’t that right?”
- couldnt agree w/ you more
t. boone reminds me of Charlie Croker in Tom Wolfe’s ‘Man in Full’ of Atlanta money. my parents live in nc up in the mountains - alot of atlantans go up there to get away from the summer heat- some true character w/ the drawl and sayings- and they are some hitters and pit bulls in atlanta biz world
May 23rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
pete: I have a semi-related story… when I was a lad playing poker with a regular group of old guys in AC, I used to peek at my hole cards after the river was dealt when I *knew* I had the nuts. I thought this was a clever trick but anyone in the hand would always fold when I did this, and the old guys said in unison, “Since you *gotta* check ‘em….” So I mixed it up after that and would peek both at non-nut hands and nut hands but the old boys would *always* call or raise my non-nuts and *always* fold to the nuts. Flustered, I said “guys, help me out here,” and the oldest, shrewdest bastard (who made a fortune in the garments industry in Noo Yawk) said to me with a smile, “Son, don’t you know there’s an *art* to lyin’?”
May 25th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Hey Chairman, I have a baby long on DRC and ,even after a temporary %16 gain, I expect another run. My stop is the high.
May 25th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Hudson: Not sure what you mean by “my stop is the high”? You mean your target? The price where you plan to get out? I’d say trail a stop after the target is reached instead of exiting arbitrarily at some price.
May 25th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Hi, first, I meant DCR and my stop is the oil high of 135. DCR is very interesting but it has options included so it moves a lot. I am sure speculators will push oil harder but a drop to 120-100 (even temporary)could be a great trade for DCR.
May 25th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Hudson: Hadn’t heard of this short oil ETF, DCR, thanks.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:35 am
I just read a WSJ piece that says this Macroshare oil down/up EFT will be terminated on June 30 and replaced by a higher oil price Macroshares (100) because the oil held 125 for more than three days. (no kidding). I should be a wild ride to end.