August 18, 2008
CSI China: What a Bloodbath
China Stocks Plunge to 18-Month Low; Gold, Energy Shares Drop
“‘There is no confidence in the market,’ said Wu Kan, a fund manager in Shanghai at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees the equivalent of $285 million. ‘Everyone is disappointed that the regulator hasn’t done anything concrete to stem the decline.’”
No disappointment with the regulator when it did nothing to stem the 630% advance which started in 2005. Everyone knows the market peaked in October 2007 (the daily, weekly and monthly Sequential all nailed it) and the weekly trend reversed dramatically in March 2008. If you’ve been holding long since that time, you’ve been willfully fighting the tape.
Related: What Goes 上 Must Come 下, August 8, 2008
Cat: | Time: 5:32 pm (utc+8)
August 18th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Got any articles on sequentials? I’d like to read up on it.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Steven: No, but there’s always Google.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
What intrigues me is that a lot of small speculators in China actually bought the peak and have been holding ever since. My mom and dad being two examples. There seems no way to convince them to stop loss even given the double top evidence. This is just sad.
August 19th, 2008 at 1:16 am
According to Jim Rogers “selling China in 2008 is like selling USA in 1908″. Maybe this is why the small speculator is holding his/hers position:)
August 19th, 2008 at 6:24 am
I have been following Roubini’s writings for several years now, and he appears to be one of the few economists that I deem credible. His timeline can be a bit off, but I would rather see him making bold predictions than the typical “give the forcast but never the time”. I wonder why you concluded that 7/15 is the bottom from the article? Was it because he was labeled a permabear or some sort of “magazine cover contrarian indicator”? Just curious.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Spock: Contrarian magazine cover indicator… I’ve read a little Roubini and his anecdotal approach annoys me … I don’t want or need to be buried in arcane math, but I wish he’d give some solid numbers (sourced) that back up his vision. Economists are always a pain, and an academic like Roubini, who probably makes $250K (?) a year for teaching four hours a week, can’t be connected to reality.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:39 am
CM - You are right about his approach, but I don’t see him as an economist, at least not a typical one. He is more like the fat-tailed, Nassim Nicholas Taleb type. But as we know, the math and modeling can only go that far, and a few factors that matter most can’t be quantified. It’s almost like our reliable magazine cover contrarian indicator… not an exact math, but that doesn’t stop us from using it ;-)
August 19th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Spock: I don’t like Taleb either. :) He strikes me as a pompous prick. I’d much rather listen to what John Paulson thinks, or anyone who has some skin in the game, (factoring in that he may just be talking his book). Roubini can prognosticate away from the comfort of his sinecure at NYU with no risk. Find me someone making a living in the trenches who has been saying the same things at the same time as Roubini, and I’ll listen.
August 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
You weren’t alone. I called the top in China after PetroChina and Alibaba’s IPO.
http://lcmarket.blogspot.com/2008/08/i-called-top-in-china.html
August 20th, 2008 at 3:32 am
CM- Where did you get that trend identification expert for metastock? Was is self developed or is it off the shelf? TIA
August 20th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Andy: I didn’t develop it myself and it’s off a very secret shelf.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Ok. I can see how it works just not sure how to code it to get the HH HL LL and LH’s without a fixed length. Oh well I can still eyeball it. :)
August 20th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
If I interpret the arcane TD signals of the CSI 300 index chart correctly, you got short-squeezed 4 times before nailing down the peak?
August 20th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
speed: The Sequential picked two previous intermediate tops before nailing the tippy top… third time lucky?