April 11, 2007
Energy SPDR at New High
The Energy SPDR (XLE) moved to a new all-time high. Readers with a good memory will recall my post last September: Reducing Exposure to Energies. Turns out that was a perfect time to Increase Exposure to Energies. It’s smart to rebalance from time to time, but it’s even better to be humble when you get things wrong.
Cat: | Time: 9:54 am (utc+8)
April 11th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Hey, maybe this trading blog accountability thing I wrote about is catching on!
thanks for the heads up on MeasureIt :-)
April 11th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Babak: If you pay attention you can separate the bullshitters from the straight-talkers pretty fast in blogland.
(Colorzilla is worth getting too.)
April 11th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
funny ut I just posted on a couple losers yesterday. Its important. Its how you learn anyways
thats why you are the CHAIRMAN and as trader milke says the Godfather.
April 11th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
[…] PS - The Chairman is cool and also is blogging about being wrong . It’s not so hard. […]
April 12th, 2007 at 5:48 am
I got panicked out of 2/3 of my energy around the same time. You know the saying, stocks have a lot of owners on the way up, a few owners on the way down. It’s really hard to resist the idea that it’s all over and you’ve got to get out.
Maximum panic is a great time to buy energy. Definitely going to buy some back the next time around.
April 12th, 2007 at 7:50 am
Bhh: It wasn’t so much panic as it was recognizing that the trend had flipped on the weekly charts (though the monthly was still rock solid positive), and thinking this is a good time to take some money off the table and shift things around a bit. Plus there was all that chatter about $100/barrel oil at that time which made me think the time was psychologically ripe for a major trend change.
April 12th, 2007 at 7:54 am
Some conspiracy minded person might suggest that the Gnomes push these guys to their 200 MAs to flush us out for the next move up.
Anyway, I’ve got a rule I’ve worked out: when they wheel out Daniel Yergin and Steve Forbes and talk about $40 oil you buy. When they wheel out Boone Pickens and $100 oil you sell.
April 12th, 2007 at 8:07 am
Chairman Mao- I don’t think you were wrong to reduce exposure in ~XLE. XLE was ranging ~50-60, so I feel it was SMART to reduce exposure at that time. Now that it looks like it is breaking out again (that is, if it is confirmed by other intermarket factors) I believe it would be a good time to increase holdings in energy stocks. 2cents.
April 12th, 2007 at 9:28 am
The dead giveaway was the bullish percent for the sector which scraped 20%.
April 12th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Babak: It would be interesting to see the times the Bullish Percent falls below 20 at times of Major trend change… didn’t the Net stocks fall below 20% in March/April 2000? Tech? Semis? Post some charts — inquiring minds need to know.
April 13th, 2007 at 9:01 am
sure thing Chairman, I’ll write up something over the weekend on this.
btw shake a leg on the debriefing for Kirk’s trades, I’m waiting for some insight into his mind ;-)
April 24th, 2007 at 8:45 am
[…] A few weeks ago Maoxian was going over his call in mid September 2006 to lighten up on the energy sector. As it turned out, that was the time to actually put money to work. I piped in saying that if you were watching the bullish percent chart for the sector, you would have noticed that it was very oversold (at around 20-30%). […]