March 11, 2008
Exxon Short Working Well as Crude Hits All-time Highs
Checking in on Exxon, a short idea during those long-ago days of freebies. Back in late February the trend in XOM was “mixed,” which is my way of saying I can’t tell if it’s up or down, but “mixed” ideas are still worth paying attention to. Also, the set-up had such tight initial risk (just over 1%) that it was definitely worth a play.
There are two ways of thinking about how to trail the stop. The ABC Stop Method trails the stop above *down* bars in a short trade (in the chart below, down bars are marked in red, up bars in green, inside bars in blue, and outside bars in black). The “Plan B” method of trailing the stop is to sit at breakeven until the Target Zone is reached, which is quite a ways down yet in XOM, and then start trailing the stop. I have to go back and re-test all my “with the trend” trades to see which exit method is superior.
March 11th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Can you share the reason for shorting XOM at that doji? I hope its no secret. thanks.
March 11th, 2008 at 9:45 am
alex: It’s a secret. The Box Ideas are only available to subscribers and neither they nor its Master (me) understand precisely how it works.
March 11th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Thank you for highlighting winning trades from the box. Do you have any updated reports on how picks in Feb did?
March 11th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
meh: Too many open trades in February to say, but the results for the “with the trend” trades look very good for the month. If you took *all* the trades, then things look pretty crummy, but we’ve learned to avoid the countertrend ideas the Box comes up with — I only wish I had figured this out when I was sending the Ideas to 1200 people… probably would have had a slightly higher conversion rate than the current 5% or so. Live and learn.
March 12th, 2008 at 12:26 am
How long do the trades usually last?
March 12th, 2008 at 6:31 am
meh: A few days to a few weeks… yet another statistic I have yet to compile (I should make a list).
March 20th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Do you have updated information on trades through Feb?
March 20th, 2008 at 10:35 am
meh: Not yet… I wait 30 trading days after a trade is opened before annotating the chart for the “marketing material” chart book. Patience, it will come. I can send you the raw February spreadsheet if you’d like?
March 21st, 2008 at 12:24 am
Yes, please send me the raw Feb spreadsheet. Thanks.
Also, did you go back to identify which trades in Dec and Jan are going with the trend or counter-trend?
March 21st, 2008 at 6:45 am
meh: Yes, and probably starting in April I will only provide the “with the trend” set-ups.
March 21st, 2008 at 9:37 am
Thanks! Could you also send me the updated spreadsheets for Dec and Jan that include the trend information?
March 21st, 2008 at 11:01 am
meh: When I release my annotated chart book it will feature only the “with the trend” trades (only 11 in December) so you can see what was what that way.
March 21st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Ok, when will the chart book be released?
March 21st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
meh: Originally I planned to wait for all the Feb trades to close, but now I’m thinking I’ll release the chart book for Dec. and Jan. first and then just add on and re-release it over time. If I get a chance to put it all together this weekend, it may be out as early as next week (but who knows).