June 19, 2008
Frayed Shirtcuff Technician Saves the Day
I meant to post this spreadsheet of CAF’s holdings yesterday, but had technical difficulties. You might find some of the columns interesting, such as date of 52 week high and number of days since 52 week high, etc.
One of the fund’s top ten holdings is China Merchants Property Development (listed in Shenzhen), which is down around 63% year-to-date and is 80% off its high. No idea what their cost basis is in this dog. The trend reversal last year was pretty clear so it would have helped to have a dirty-collared “technical analyst” on the staff to point it out at the time.
Cat: | Time: 5:27 pm (utc+8)
June 20th, 2008 at 3:31 am
80% off its high and you think there is still enough pain to come to make a profit? Ouch.
June 20th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Dan: I’m just saying follow the trend. The big money was saved when they goofy guy with the bad skin and teeth said get out in the 50’s.
June 20th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Just something to think about:
CAF traded as much as 30% discounted to its net asset value (NAV). So if one would have shorted at $70 per share, one actually have shorted at $49 at NAV.
NAV is actually what the portfolio is worth. One simply should not have shorted a very deeply discounted fund.
Another thing to think about is that the assault on Chinas’ equity prices included Taiwain, Hong Kong, where the latter two are very well established exchanges. Not a “third” world exchange as wall street would like it to be.
Most of these funds are now listed in my watch list.
June 20th, 2008 at 10:20 am
shaun: I don’t know anything about closed-end funds, but it is interesting that they can trade at wild premiums (and discounts) to NAV. You can ignore the whole NAV issue and just trade it on price alone using trend analysis, I’d think.