March 13, 2008
Gold and Crude in Dollars, Euros, and Yuan
Dollar Trades at Record Low Versus Euro as Fed Plan Disappoints
“Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that ‘we are not convinced that yesterday’s move will solve all the multiple challenges facing credit markets and the financial system.’”
Everyone knows that Gentle Ben’s bank bailout / reflation plan is murder on the dollar. I thought it would be fun (eye-opening?) to post the charts of crude oil and gold, denominated in dollars, euros, and yuan, so here they are:
Cat: | Time: 10:07 am (utc+8)
March 13th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
So the question remains, as it has for years now, who on earth is buying U.S. government notes and bonds at these prices? The long bond yields 4.38% tonight, and people can’t seem to get enough of them. That’s 30 long years of getting paid back in nothing but dollars. As a reference point, the yield on the German bund is 4.44%.
Any of CM’s faithful 12 able to reconcile these facts with the above charts? We’ve moved beyond conundrum into the realm of sacred mystery.
March 13th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Ollie: It’s a fright to quality thing mainly, I guess. Return *of* capital rather than return *on* capital. Drag out all the old cliches. :-)
I would also like to note that the faithful 12 are now down to six, since half my readers decamped in disgust following my “Box Ideas” monetization campaign.
March 13th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Don’t worry. America will be just fine. You’ll see.
Benanke is destined to become the best fed chairman ever.
March 13th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
beanie: Have you been trapped in a room with only the WSJ editorial page for company? :-)
March 13th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
ill invest a few dollars in america by travelling there if obama gets in :)
March 13th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Nik: I highly recommend you buy some property in the US, someplace rural and pristine. Now’s probably not a bad time to do so.
March 14th, 2008 at 4:36 am
Ollie: “who on earth is buying U.S. government notes and bonds at these prices?”
easy — the primary buyer of US Fed Govt DEBT is foreign central banks (primarily asian)… of course price (in terms of return) for them is essentially arbitrary… big picture stuff… as far as flight/fright to a perceived lesser of evils — only accounts for a small percentage of the buying… it’s the foreign central banks doing the real buying… collapse for US is unavoidable… bgtw, anyone read Schiff? pick up his book “Crash Proof”, a really quick read although nowhere near a good as his regular commentary (book is a bit dumbed down for the public i guess, or he didn’t have much time to write it and so sort of did a rush job)… anyway, i’ll sum it up: buy precious metals [i myself advocate Silver and believe it will provide the most bang for one’s buck], sell anything denominated in $USD, use $USD and borrow $USD to invest in foreign equities that pay a dividend yield, and then use that yield to pay off your shrinking $USD loan as the $USD continues to lose purchasing power…
March 14th, 2008 at 5:21 am
for anyone who might be interested in investing in precious metals but has never done so or is not sure how to proceed, below is an excellent way to do so and one which is insured and which allows for optional on-site storage at no cost (and at a facility outside of the US for those who might consider the US Fed Govt to be a concern)…
The Perth Mint :: Investing in Precious Metals
http://www.perthmint.com.au/ig_metals.aspx
The Perth Mint Metal Prices - Live precious metal spot price for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from the Perth Mint
http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx
btw, i am not affiliated in any way with Perth… just trying to do my part in terms of contributing and sharing information…
March 14th, 2008 at 8:09 am
v838mons: Don’t forget your tinfoil hat…
March 14th, 2008 at 8:10 am
v838: I think Ollie meant very recently as opposed to generally over the last decade or so. The fright to quality is what has been driving price since last summer, I guess.
March 14th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
CM-
I haven’t taken any econ classes so my understanding of this topic is limited but please explain this: when the Fed recently put $200 billion of capital to work do they just tell the Tres Dept to print more cash and release it into circulation, thus increasing the supply and decreasing the overall value of good ole’ “greenie” ?!?
March 14th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
amir: The $200 billion plan isn’t the problem (they’re just repurchase agreements I think, not cash going into circulation — it’s just a “confidence building measure”), it’s the rate cut part of the bailout /reflation plan that’s so devastating to the greenback.
March 14th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
CM-
My understanding is that they are short term “loans” ~ 28 days to the banks for exchange of the bank’s spotty loans they have on their books. It’s giving the banks short term liquidity if I am correct.
What I am more interested in is learning how the fed injects more and more cash into the money supply through banks, which they have in the past 6 months. Does this devalue the greenback since it’s printing more dollars and putting them to work?
What would be a good primer/book on this topic?
March 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
amir: The money supply and how the Fed works are great mysteries to me too. I don’t know any book that explains it all in plain English, but maybe one of my very informed, sophisticated readers can put us on the right track.
March 15th, 2008 at 12:07 am
I think part of v838mons’ answer has an appealing logic - “…of course price (in terms of return) for them is essentially arbitrary”. In other words, a large buyer who either doesn’t care about price, or doesn’t know any better. I’m not so sure that it’s Asian central bankers recently, as their exports to the U.S. must be significantly slowing. Hedge funds? Oil exporters?
Of course, you can’t completely discount the possibility that these buyers of U.S. treasuries are the smart ones, and those still buying industrial metals and energy will get their heads handed to them in the near future.
March 15th, 2008 at 9:47 am
The charts show that some currencies are worse than others, but also that they all are pieces of crap during inflation.