May 7, 2008
Guessing When Crude Will Hit $200
Goldman’s Murti Says Oil `Likely’ to Reach $150-$200
“‘The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months,’ the Goldman analysts wrote in the report dated May 5. ‘The core of our super-spike view has been that a lack of adequate supply growth coupled with price-insulated non-OECD demand growth’ is leading to higher prices.”
Anyone can slap a regression channel on a chart, which is probably what the Goldman guys did to come up with this not-the-least-bit-bold forecast.
Cat: | Time: 1:12 pm (utc+8)
May 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Wow.
$200 in 2 years.
That’s ,….. scary :p
May 7th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
lionel: You sit in bumper to bumper traffic every day in Beijing and it all makes sense. Fifteen years ago I biked everywhere, but now I don’t dare get on one (pollution+three million new drivers= bad biking conditions).
May 7th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
palpable tipping point feeling here in nyc imo on gas/food/housing - have friends w/ kids and expensive overhead in the city stretched and worrying about street layoffs. seems the return to urban/public transportation vs. suburbia/long commutes is coming. buy rails for commuter build-out
May 8th, 2008 at 2:15 am
I have much disdain for that term ’super-spike’. What technical manual did that come from? GS called for potential of one of these back in Apr 2005, to $105. Maybe we’ll get one of these events if there is a collective global cognizance of the fact that the supply is finite. Until then, I expect it to continue to ’sashay’ to the levels to which they refer.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:52 am
I have much disdain for that term ’sashay’.
May 8th, 2008 at 5:34 am
pete I’m in the rail design business in NY/NJ. We’re awfully busy these days!
May 8th, 2008 at 5:58 am
I’ve thought for a while if I had Warren Buffet amounts of money sitting around I’d buy up slums and inner suburbs around cities. 2-3 hour commutes with $10 gas isn’t going to be all that viable, I think. Or maybe the Yugo will make a comeback.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:34 am
I’m not a fan of the term “tipping point,” but I bet they like “super spike” down in Goldman’s marketing dep’t. As far as sashaying goes, I’m a huge proponent while following her.
@Bhh: A lot of thrifty things are going to make a comeback. A quick side story. My cousin had a Yugo when she was in medical school and every time something broke (which was about every ten minutes) and she took it in, the mechanics took great pleasure announcing over the PA: “DOCTOR, your Yugo is ready. You can pick up your Yugo now, DOCTOR.”