July 24, 2008
Has Crude Topped? Probably Not.
I wouldn’t stick a fork in the Crude bull yet. I don’t know if a major change of trend is underway, but based on the bumper to bumper traffic I face every day in Beijing, I’d say no — this is just a “correction” (I hate that term) in an ongoing bull market. I’d still be looking to get long off reversals on the daily (and lower time frame) charts.
Cat: | Time: 5:51 pm (utc+8)
July 24th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Chairman.. from your chart, its look like price already meet the support area (may be).I think price still heading higher,like you said ‘its a correction’,furthermore geopolitical tension still not calm. Any missile test from Iran then surely its a buying opportunity.. :)
July 24th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
hi the chairman
how is the new odd/even licence plate policy helping the traffic so far?
seems like there is finally blue sky in beijing from what I saw on the news
July 24th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
@zaidon: As long as the weekly trend is up (it still is) we’d look long on the smaller time frames.
@Houston: It seems to be having very little effect and the air quality was terrible today, but it’s hard to say how much is summer haze and how much is pollution.
July 25th, 2008 at 6:01 am
You know what, if the socialist Hugo Chavez really wanted to stick it to America, he would increase oil output. This would not only send the price of oil down, but also hurt the portfolio value of upper elite in America who all have oil interest. The USA has gone to Iraq twice for what reason? Not for the liberation of the Iraqi people. If you want to hurt “the devil”, you have to strike those who control and run the USA and not the middle and lower class citizen. A true socialist should know this. Chavez is a very educated man, the power of running a country has gone to his head and his true desires conflict with his political beliefs. Greed is human nature though. Those communist leaders from the former USSR never had any real desire to spread lucrative assets to the people and neither does Mr. Chavez.
July 25th, 2008 at 7:13 am
I’d have to say that the fundamentals are against oil really breaking down “yet” or any time soon. High oil prices have made the State I live in fairly dire. My non-trader friends keep asking me when oil is going to come down. I always tell them the same thing: “Well, it is a bull market you know.”
July 25th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Keith: Yes, it’s a global demand thing … as Louis Bacon said in this interview:
“We have encouraged all 7 billion of the world’s inhabitants to live like Westerners, and now that they have taken the bait, we are realizing it is impossible on this small Earth. The first big hit has been to the environment; the next, which we are witnessing, is to energy prices, and it is leading to food shortages and eventually more famines.
Governments are only starting to address the problem, and the planet’s most inventive and powerful economy, America’s, is leading only from the rear, if at all, given our present administration.”
PS: Yes, I did get your email and will reply at some point. :)
July 25th, 2008 at 7:28 am
>>PS: Yes, I did get your email and will reply at some point. :)
Thanks. No worries. I know you’re busy. :)
July 25th, 2008 at 8:47 am
@Keith: Correct, I have a very active dating schedule and these girls half my age keep me mighty busy. :)
July 25th, 2008 at 8:50 am
I don’t have any conviction to short it or anything but I bet you a shiny $.05 that oil will get under $100 just in time for the election (pure coincidence of course).
Whenever we have one of these perfectly correlated commodity selloffs some hedge fund is blowin’ up.
July 26th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Chavez is running out of places to sell in the US. Even Joe Kennedy stopped running ads with his help the poor heat homes with Chavez. In Massachusetts, convenience store chain Christy’s paid 500k to can Citgo from their pumps. In rural US, a Citgo sign is the kiss of death for a retail outlet. Awesome chart, I am sitting on XTO.
July 26th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Somehow I don’t think Chavez worries about selling his gas. It has something to do with a global demand situation. But there will always be Fox News to prevent the poor in the States from getting this tainted subsidized fuel.
July 27th, 2008 at 1:57 am
wow - didnt realize the hate america posters - sorry calling it what it is - defending Chavez?? Blaming Fox News?? Chavaez is a scum -and that Batman movie was great, yes it came off pro bush fight terriorism. With all the anti hate amercia blah blah (more or less jealous)no better, safer, place to live. Freedom!!
July 27th, 2008 at 7:41 am
While ideologies are opposite, George and Hugo have one thing in common-both have advisors who are afraid to tell them the truth.