September 13, 2008
Is the IYR Leading the XLF?
The IYR (US Real Estate ETF) bottomed in January 2008 and the XLF (the Financial SPDR) may have bottomed in July 2008. It’s interesting to pair these two relative performance charts up … if the IYR is leading then we’ve probably seen the low in the XLF, despite the recent collapse of LEH and continuing slide in AIG, MER, etc. Wishful thinking? Thoughts from the gallery?
Cat: | Time: 2:22 pm (utc+8)
September 13th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Cm,
Looks close to breaking out of the weekly, http://tinyurl.com/4jn289
I would wait for it to break 68.50 on good volume before declaring the trend has changed.
September 13th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Hmmm…stockcharts.com has the low for IYR at 55.17 on July 14, as opposed to the January low at 56.74. Perhaps you are basing your data on weekly close figures?
In any case although residential real estate in the US may well be bottomed or bottoming I’d keep an eye on commercial.
September 13th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
retailers, home builders, REITS and Financials all look like they have bottomed. Ag, especially fertilizer stocks look like they broke the upward trend and about to start a bear market in that sector.
gold and oil still have ways to go in their own bear market.
September 13th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
I was looking into the XLF constituents and BAC is the biggest component. The only worrisome component of the big 10 in XLF that I see is AIG.
I went long on some XLF last week and will do a covered call strategy for some monthly income and I have some GLD as a hedge.
What is for sure is that GLD and XLF are exact opposites.
September 14th, 2008 at 12:54 am
I see relative bottoms, but if the overall market keeps tanking the nominal bottoms are not going to hold.
September 14th, 2008 at 1:17 am
One would have to think that LEH will not be the last bomb to go off. MER, C, AIG and a few others still look like they may not make it out, or at least not in their current forms. MER & AIG in particular have been getting hit hard of late.
You would have to think that the bottom will at least be tested, whether it will hold or not is the trillion dollar question.
September 14th, 2008 at 1:46 am
SKF was a relative dud this time around. I pulled the plug at 120. The market is getting bored of financial disasters. Is China ready to waive pollution rules yet?
I’m in shipping and steel;)
September 14th, 2008 at 1:51 am
Sure, a revisit to $17 for XLF is not out of the question. I figured that if firms go bye bye the XLF will just get replacement tickers.
September 14th, 2008 at 4:08 am
regional banks lead the market, and the iyr; rkh, kre
September 14th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
classic trend relativity question - trading faster time frames it is tradeable long- higher times, ie next higher than your chart i’d play it from bear flag setting up.
September 15th, 2008 at 10:13 am
I said I thought the markets are bored with finance disasters-Tomorrow should let me know! Monday’s gap down will be interesting to say the least. Goldman may be a great high volume hammer for the gunslingers in the crowd.
September 15th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
@Hudson: Looks like it will be a dramatic open, but huge gaps, both up and down, I’ve always found very hard days to play.
September 15th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Looks like we will see if that was the low in the next few days. Geeze, happened real quick. XLF at 19.50 2 hrs before the open.
I am 99% in cash, will nibble a bit if there is a strong reversal off the bottom whenever that is. This could be a 2 or 3 day sell off event, with plenty of vicious grabs and other assorted nasties. In short capital preservation is number 1, if one can make a few bucks then that is a bonus.
September 16th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Today was rough but I caught a sucker rally on AIG midday for 12%. The rest of the day was rather depressing. I don’t think the VIX spiked either ,more like a engulfing candle(uh oh).
September 19th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
If this bill to make the US Government the biggest Hedge fund in the world gets passed, then the bottom for the XLF is in.
September 19th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Gary: Yes, there’s nothing like putting the little guy on the hook for hundreds of billions in losses created by a very small group of people. As Morrissey sang:
don’t … take “on loans”
there’s always someone, somewhere
with a big nose, who knows
and who trips you up and laughs
when you fall
who’ll trip you up and laugh
when you fall
September 20th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I agree, I don’t like what Hank and the SEC are doing, but it is what it is.