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July 28, 2006


June/July 2006: a Serious Inflection Point

The End of History and the Last Bond Bull Market, by Bill(ionaire) Gross

425 basis points of short-term hikes and the concomitant tightening of the yield curve in the past several years has been more than enough to slow economic growth and contain inflation. That’s a bold statement to make in the face of an apparently still strong domestic economy, a booming global environment, and accelerating core CPI numbers, but PIMCO’s cyclical analysis would suggest that it is justified.

The only inflection points I care about are when Stephen “The End is Nigh” Roach turns bullish, as he did with bonds in June 2005 and the global economy in May 2006 — two perfectly picked tops!

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