November 7, 2007
Lucky 888 — Short-term Target for Gold
Calling for $888 in gold isn’t especially daring, but I’ve been looking for it to go there for several weeks now — sorry I didn’t post the charts sooner. “8″ is a lucky Chinese number because the sound for “8″ in Cantonese sounds like “fa,” or fortune. This is why my cell phone number here has five 8’s in it — I’m as superstitious as the next illiterate.
Cat: | Time: 2:37 pm (utc+8)
November 7th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Excuse my ignorance, but could you please explain the meaning behind the green and red 1-9 digits on the chart?
November 7th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Carlton: That’s the DeMark Sequential … not sure if there’s an explanation of it online… Google? I’m part of an “exclusive clique of market power houses” and we don’t explain things. ;-)
November 8th, 2007 at 1:56 am
k… i finally caved in and submitted a limit order at $19 for a small WM position… i am canceling it upon close on Friday if it is not filled by then…
let us see if this “value” theory of yours works :)
November 8th, 2007 at 2:00 am
Yea, Chairman, you are officially taking a flogging in WM.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:11 am
Born2Code said:
“i finally caved in and submitted a limit order at $19 for a small WM position.”
It’s headed lower than $19, for sure. The bloodletting is still not done. There’s more to come, as inconceivable as it may be.
As Wm. J. O’Neil has said: what seems high usually goes higher and what seems low usually goes lower.
How true …
November 8th, 2007 at 2:38 am
$Copper is looking like it wants to close below the 200 day moving average. I would be cautious on all the metals and energy if it does.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:42 am
agreed… i am generally a buyer of strength and a seller of weakness. and i am a huge O’neil fan and an IBD subscriber.
This is tiny position, relative to my portfolio, not even a 1/3 of a percent. it seems very oversold at those levels. If i get a fill and then a technical bounce i will sell into strength. if it starts forming a base i will hold. otherwise i will just sell front month calls and collect dividends…
we shall see… it all depends on whether i get a fill in the next 50 hours or not.
November 8th, 2007 at 7:13 am
Yeah, WM is a major disaster … I never expected things would get this bad — live and learn.
@Ollie: Yes, a lot of folks are bearish on copper and are worried about what it portends for the global economy.
November 8th, 2007 at 7:20 am
I love WM, which I have been short for around two weeks. It has a ways to go before I will discard it like medical waste. Or embrace it long.
November 8th, 2007 at 7:53 am
CapGain: Why didn’t you tell us about it two weeks ago? ;-)
November 8th, 2007 at 8:08 am
Because that would have included how I went long YHOO as well :-(
It broke my tender heart, so natuarlly I summarily executed it and then had a sandwich.
I am currently long (calls): GOOG (as always)
AAPL
RIMM
CSCO
I am currently short (puts): ABK
MBI
MER
C
WM
November 8th, 2007 at 10:32 am
“Yeah, WM is a major disaster … I never expected things would get this bad — live and learn.”: I think you just nailed the problem with “value” investing…
on that happy note i revised my limit order to $17 :)
November 8th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Born2: I’ve learned that value is something of a moving target and it’s wise not to get too wrapped up in the numbers. -sigh-
November 8th, 2007 at 11:14 am
It’s always easier to cook the books than to cook the charts ;)
November 8th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
CM said: “I’ve learned that value is something of a moving target …”
I think we discussed that several weeks back before this all unraveled.
@BTC: Why $17 ? Is that just an arbitrary number ? During the last 2 sizable declines in WM (’89-’90 and ‘98-’00) it corrected between 58%-67% off the highs.
WM is already at 57% off the 52 week highs. A 67% correction would take it to around $15 and change.
@CapitalGain: Congrats ! Nice play. If I was smart enough to own puts on WM and C (unfortunately I’m not) I would be taking profit Thursday or Friday.
As always, just one person’s opinion.
November 8th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Let me further clarify, if I owned WM or C puts I’d be taking profit; but that doesn’t mean that I’d also be buying calls or going long. It’s simply that the time and velocity of the current move in those stocks is such that taking profit in puts makes sense to me.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Todd: Yeah, I know… a lot of people online and off were calling me an idiot for liking the financials but I call ‘em as I see ‘em — and get killed from time to time.