December 3, 2007
Mortgage Interest Rate Reset Schedule
Just read a report put out last Friday from CSFB on the financial sector… pretty grim reading.
“… current ABX indices are now consistent with potential mark-to-market losses in sub-prime/CDOs of US$240bn. If we very aggressively assume that the US investment banks will take half these losses, then that would justify an equivalent aggregate market-cap loss of US$240bn (assuming a normalized 2-times book multiple). However, their market cap has already declined some US$274bn from peak (and the OECD estimates that all banks globally hold 25% of CDO paper) making the sell-off look excessive. This said, the risk remains that these signs of value could disappear if there were CDO asset fire-sale, perhaps caused by more severe ratings actions. Until we have more clarity on this, it would be premature to strategically build on our position here.”
Speaking of more severe ratings actions…
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Well, I think the $274bn selloff reflects a lot more than the $240bn black hole. There’s also the the present value of the future cash flows of the structured finance industry. That was a huge money printing press that’s now gone.
And there’s the present value of the massive retrenching of leverage, and the prospect of selling off more of other assets at poorer prices to meet capital requirements.
And there’s less future LBO activity. And less of pretty much every other process by which investment banks generate fees.
So I think the CSFB assessment misses the derivative effects of the subprime blowout.
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:19 pm
“…making the sell-off look excessive”
This guy just doesn’t get it, but he’s about to learn!
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Cartman: I agree but remember that the $240 billion figure assumes a 60% write-down of all subprime debt which may be high (then again, it may be low… no one knows yet). The ABX Indices certainly appear to be pricing in a worst-case scenario. The main thing I take away from that ABX chart is that there has been a gradual realization that the credit ratings of this stuff mean nothing… meaning an institutional failure on the part of the ratings agencies which makes the Arthur Andersen/Enron collapse pale in comparison… or am I overreaching?
December 4th, 2007 at 1:11 am
Anecdotally speaking, from one of the “hotspots” in the whole “buy the Hispanic vote while boosting the base of the banking ponzi” housing fiasco; 8 years ago I could go to the mall and fit right in. Now, I might be the only white dude there. I am surrounded by people who don’t speak English now and they mostly work in low end and construction jobs.
Is a recession going to force more foreclosures, you betcha.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:39 am
If you look at the FHLB site and go to “debt issuance,” the FHLB (Fed. Home Loan Banks) ‘discount notes outstanding’ has gone from $158bn to $328bn in ten months. That rate of increase is totally unprecedented and that’s why we aren’t seeing as many dead whales in the mortgage industry as we thought.
I find it hilarious how people are saying, ‘Aha, the twin deficits are falling, a dollar rally is just around the corner.’ There has been a $170bn bailout of the mortgage industry that has completely slipped under the radar. Anatole Kaletsky was just saying today how the US twin deficits are plunging, and he is no slouch of an analyst (as far as I can tell).
Who knows, maybe the banks have gotten in on it too.
Ridiculous.
Donk–that’s another cost that will come out of the dollar. I bet unemployment among illegals here has gone ballistic. Are they just going go home to the Zeta - Sinaloa - Mexican gov’t civil war? Yeah, right.
December 4th, 2007 at 2:06 am
E. Cartman - the worst of it is yet to come. We have imported poverty and strife. Once the American dream fails them the machismo and the AK’s will come out.
Remember the Mariel boat lift? Remember how cocaine took off after that? Same ole, same ole.
In the name of something? (profits?) the banker pricks have planted the seeds of chaos (isn’t that a lawyers job?) and it will justify the police state we are watching unfold before our eyes.
You can’t convince me they didn’t see this coming. Sad thing is…try to organize a movement for changing the “system” and watch how fast the Patriot Act kicks in.
December 4th, 2007 at 3:26 am
Certainly just coincidence ;)
December 5th, 2007 at 3:04 am
This Blogger lays out a very clear case for where we are and what’s likely ahead.
http://tinyurl.com/2fw5kb
December 5th, 2007 at 9:27 am
CapGain: Blogspot is blocked in China but I’ve added Calculated Risk to my feed reader on your say so.
December 5th, 2007 at 10:09 am
I have no idea who the blogger is as he protects his identity, but I have been a daily visitor to his site for around two years or so. For a long while I thought he was just a permabear fear merchant doom freak, but over the last 8 to 12 months I have come to appreciate his moderation, humility and the accuracy of almost all of his real eastate, housing, and credit centric viewpoints.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:56 am
CapGain: Are you sure you aren’t he? :-) I’ve heard of the blog before and even subscribed before, but I think I dropped him thinking he was a permabear without moderation … I’ll try again.