October 25, 2008
New Newsletter Soon To Launch
I will soon start a new weekly investment newsletter based purely on trend analysis. (Oh no, not another attempt at a newsletter from the Chairman! Sad but true, lol.)
Writing the Box swing trading newsletter was too much of a grind because I had to kick it out every day, and I never want to do that again. I also think the market for long-term investment ideas is much bigger than the market for swing-trading ideas, so I hope to get several hundred subscribers for this new one (at its peak, I had around 100 subscribers for the Box ideas, which was another reason it wasn’t worth my time to continue). But I’m looking forward to writing something once a week that is valuable enough for people to pay for.
The big money is made catching big trends, like I did back in the dot com days (I wasn’t smart, I was just on the right side of things, and then I stupidly didn’t sell anything when it all reversed). And as I’ve learned recently, “value investing” is easier said than done. Day trading is fun and can be very profitable, but most people can’t sit in front of a screen all day, which is essential — trading can’t be a part-time “hobby.” Finally, I’m pretty darn sure that swing trading is for suckers.
The universe I plan to track will be around 100 active ETFs and will give specific long or short calls based on the weekly charts. (It’ll be a little bit like the old weekly trend tables.) The newsletter will be free until January 1, 2009, and then I’ll begin to charge for it (probably $6 an issue or or $125 for a half-year or $200 a year). I plan to write the first issue next Saturday and will shamelessly promote it until the end of the year (and less so ever after).
Here are the buys and sells for Gold (GLD) since it started trading back in 2004. The newsletter will be in table form with specific dates and prices shown. This post is just a half-assed announcement; I’ll have a sample done by next week I hope.
October 25th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
How/Where do I sign-up?
October 25th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Hi Chairman,
I was wondering if you could explain why you think swing trading is for suckers? Either in the comments or with a specific post. Are you limiting that statement solely to equities? I’m just a curious swing trader who beats the market, but not ludicrously. :-)
October 25th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
@Anthony: Once I produce something, I’ll start collecting emails.
@JRM: It seems that that’s the toughest time frame to game — holding several days or several weeks is really hard to get right in my (limited) experience. Of course there are people (like you apparently) who can do it, but I think for most people, they end up losing money.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I wonder how long you’ll do the newsletter before you get bored of it. :)
October 25th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
@Tom: I hope I’ll do better this time; I’m hoping this one’s a keeper and making it a weekly is key … I wouldn’t wish a *daily* newsletter on anyone.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I’m looking forward to it, Chairman. The one thing that keeps me around is you don’t gloss over or sugar coat.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Welcome (again) to the glass house. You’ll have to start calling yourself the 68.4 cents a day guru soon…
October 26th, 2008 at 11:34 am
@The Piker: I look forward to receiving your subscription! ($200 annual, $125 half-year, or $6 for a trial issue).
October 26th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Maoxian, the chinese character is “braving danger”?? Sorry, my chinese is damn bad.
Anyway, how do i sign up for the newsletter? :P
October 26th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Looking forward.. I think there’s more demand for this kind of newsletter, especially employing ‘fuzzy’ analysis + sound trend following principles. Everyone wants to ‘know’ where the market/gold/oil etc. will turn. Any special reason you chose ETFs? Will you be including currencies and maybe commodities, although not many are represented in ETF.
Btw, interesting article on English vs. Hebrew Yiddish. Not sure how they checked the list of words not shared between the two versions but I noticed a few words that I would have categorized in the opposite way.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
@eyal: I’m going to try to pick the hundred or so most active ETFs, cover all the bases. Currencies and commodities will be represented, FXE is active as are a bunch of commodity-related things (left over from the bubble). Interestingly I’ll only cover XLK and SMH for tech, whereas I would probably have followed a dozen of them back during the tech bubble. “There’s always a bull market somewhere!”
October 26th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
@Kris: I always like to translate maoxian as “take a risk” … you can sign up by sending me an email, and I’ll be plugging it an awful lot in future so you won’t forget. :)
October 27th, 2008 at 4:08 am
Sign me up, I love looking at blue arrows :)
October 27th, 2008 at 6:10 am
I like the ETF angle. I am in.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:37 am
@Andrew & Hudson: Thrilled to hear that two more of my dozen readers are enthusiastic about it! :) (Truly, it should be really good.)
October 27th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Aloha, sounds interesting look forward to it.
October 27th, 2008 at 11:58 am
@lizann: Are you looking forward to paying for it though? :)
October 27th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Will you be providing exact entry and exit price levels like you did for the box?
October 28th, 2008 at 4:39 am
“at its peak, I had around 100 subscribers for the Box ideas, which was another reason it wasn’t worth my time to continue”
Did you mean you had too many or too little subscribers for the box?
October 28th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Mr. Maoxian back in the game hehe :) looking forward to this weekly newsletter.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:03 am
@help: Yes on the exact levels. I was spending at least an hour a day on the Box so even taking in 2K a month in subscription revenue, it wasn’t worth my time on an hourly basis. I need to get two or three hundred subscribers for the weekly letter.
@konrad: I never left the game! :-)
October 29th, 2008 at 1:44 am
sign me up. but seriously who looks forward to paying…:-)
October 29th, 2008 at 5:01 am
How do I sign up for the trial?
October 29th, 2008 at 10:01 am
@shirov: Send me an email please and I’ll put you on the list.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Best of luck, Chairman!
The main challenge of trend following is not defining the entry and exit signals but the ability to act on them, position sizing, limiting overall exposure and diversifying. So, in addition to signals on 100 ETFs, you should probably track a $5000 model portfolio. When people see the portfolio is making money, they will follow the newsletter for a longer time.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:33 am
@Ravi: Yes, I plan to make a “real money” portfolio that will track the signals, but haven’t decided exactly how to do it yet. I look forward to receiving your subscription. :)
October 29th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
This new service sounds like for me, because unfortunately I am busy man and I can’t sit in front of a screen all day.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
@Paul: Yes, the market for independent “active traders” is incredibly small, and even though they tend to have money they can also be really cheap bastards (or so my girlfriends tell me).
October 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Sounds interesting…sign me up!
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Please add me to your new ETF Newsletter.
Mike