August 6, 2008
Of Significant Concern to the Committee
Fed Keeps Rate at 2% as Economic Growth Stagnates
“The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent … Fed policy makers have cut the benchmark rate by 3.25 percentage points since the global credit market began unraveling a year ago.”
The market was strong going into the Fed announcement and did its usual ziggy thing (highly technical term) before continuing higher into the close. Three out of four of the Box’s open short positions were stopped out. I’ve learned to hate swing trading (and fall back in love with day trading) by watching the Box ideas these many months.
Cat: | Time: 1:37 pm (utc+8)
August 6th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
dance w/ the one that brought you(daytrading)
August 6th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
I fell out of Swing Trading for the most part as well (I keep an eye on one Swing trading system for now). Just Day Trading for the most part (good Dummy spots, btw).
Medium-term Swing trends get blown up too easily in this market. Too much serpentine. Even good looking Swing shorts don’t last long enough to make it worth while. You end up day trading them (in a management sense) with the fret of over-night risk.
Lately it seems the big funds lack disciplined patience and are emotionally jerking this market around at will. A tiresome game if you’re a little retail guy like me.
Maybe it’s a sideways 1966-1980 market where the swings are compressed and confined. Whatever the case, day trading is paying the bills for now. I’m sure my Tax bill will suck though.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
@pete & Keith: Yeah, people are always surprised to learn that I don’t trade the Box ideas myself but I’ve never been comfortable with that time frame … and I do think the ideas are very useful to see what works and what fails and what that all means for the broad market trends.
I know people are drawn to swing trading because they have real jobs (i.e. 9-5) and can’t sit in front of the screen all day, but I have to say that trying to catch moves off the daily chart is just murder.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:07 am
>>…but I have to say that trying to catch moves off the daily chart is just murder.
Agreed.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:14 am
“trying to catch moves off the daily chart is just murder.”
Do you feel this way due to the current market conditions or do you think that this will always be your opinion? What made you decide to try swing trading anyway? Will you show some of your daytrades like you used to do?
I think swing trading can work in some markets but is best played with options, straight calls and puts at money or 1 strike out with at least 2 weeks before expiration.
August 7th, 2008 at 7:42 am
johnny: Many subscribers say it’s especially difficult now, but I’ve always thought trading off the daily chart sucks. I didn’t decide to try swing trading, I decided to see what kind of ideas this nifty program comes up with, and I am impressed by it. Yes, I will feature all the day trades that work and quietly ignore the many ones that go bad. :-)
August 7th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Hi~
As someone that learned (and continues to learn) from the dummy setups you used to do, I am excited to know you will be posting your day trades :-)
Do you think you will use the same “dummy” principles you used in the past?
Cheers,
anarco
August 7th, 2008 at 8:33 am
anarco: Yes, more or less, maybe somewhat modified, we’ll see once I get back into the fray.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
“Be an investor in early stage bull, and be a speculator in late stage bull or bear”, I remember this since I first read it in Trader Vic’s book. He is absolutely right. You can make the same amount money by swing in bear market, and usually with less time exposed. You have to be patient and Most of the time, you just WAIT for the right moments to come. I learned all this the hard way. On the other hand, I totally agree that in this market most people are forced to day-trade.
August 8th, 2008 at 3:33 am
Day trading is the best way to make money in today’s market environment. I think if you are a swing trader that will hold for 2-3 weeks, you can find some selective markets to play in. USO, CROX, RIMM, AAPL, ICE, GRMN, DRYS, VLO, ect where you might find some good risk to award set-ups. For those who want to only hold 2-3 days, the market has proven that with the volatility, you can get into a better position from the previous close. Holding the next day would only be logical if price closed at the highs or lows of the day, and is about to go into cycle 2 of a trend.
The professional trader, who swings, does his due diligent with fundamental analysis, while being fully aware of macroeconomic events.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:57 am
Day trading and swing trading are not mutually exclusive. The best swing trades are entered intra-day and exited intra-day as well: on different days of course.