May 21, 2008
Review of Trading Ideas from the Box — January 2008
Here is the spreadsheet and charts for all the “with the trend” ideas from the Box in January 2008. Anyone who is interested in subscribing to the Box’s trading ideas should review this post closely. These are the trading ideas in complete and original form; they are not “cherry picked” or “massaged” to look good given the benefit of hindsight.
I welcome all questions and comments!
If you’d like to subscribe (for a modest monthly fee) to these trading ideas, just drop me an email and I’ll be in touch.
Box Ideas for January 2008 (spreadsheet)
(#1 Long APOL)
(#2 Long PII)
(#3 Long MO)
(#4 Long MO)
(#5 Long WDC)
(#6 Long ATK)
(#7 Long NST)
(#8 Long GME)
(#9 Long XRAY)
(#10 Long AME)
(#11 Long GOOG)
(#12 Long PG)
(#13 Long VZ)
(#14 Long UTX)
(#15 Long MICC)
(#16 Long USO)
(#17 Long COP)
(#18 Long VRSN)
(#19 Short IBM)
(#20 Short BEZ)
Cat: | Time: 10:48 am (utc+8)
May 21st, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Looks like most of the long ideas went down and the short ideas went up? :0) Any stats on profits/RoR?
May 21st, 2008 at 7:22 pm
moom: January was terrible and I think that by following the ABC method one would have lost 12R on the month. As luck would have it, that was the month I was sending the ideas to 1200 potential (non)subscribers, lol.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:47 pm
It might be a good idea to post overall R expectancy with max drawdown.
It is an interesting system. I’m assuming you have a scanner that checks for countertrend movements with a certain type of candle.
I don’t know your system very well, but would it have been ideal to add extra filters (stochaistics, MAs, etc) to help improve your hit rate on entry? Extra strategies like that may not be your style… but could make for an interesting study.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:52 pm
BTW, would a UA short here be something that matches your criteria?
May 21st, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Steve: It’s not a system, they’re just ideas. I don’t know what expectancy means. My style is to keep it as simple as possible. UA is not in the universe of stocks it scans, I think.
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:14 am
Have you tested any type of SAR criteria with your trading ideas?
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:25 am
@Chris: You mean to trail a stop? No. I know that every subscriber has his own stop trailing methods and practically none follow the ABC method.
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 am
No, I didn’t mean a trailing stop.
Rather, have you ever experimented with a criteria that says “I got stopped out of the trade because the price action moved against me, hmm, how does the opposite trade look at this point?”
I assume that if you were long and it didn’t pan out, you could have the box examine the stock at that point as a short and see if the right criteria are met. if so take the new trade. I’d be curious if this worked, but not surprised if it was a bad idea :)
May 23rd, 2008 at 7:05 am
Chris: No, I’ve never experimented with that. The only improvement I’ve made to the Box is separating the set-ups into “trend” and “countertrend” ideas based on the weekly trend.
I’m sure there are subscribers who *have* come up with the kind of “fail” scenario you present that they then act on.