October 30, 2007
Seeing the Blindingly Obvious in a Moment of Clarity
Longish profile of Ospraie Management’s Dwight Anderson
“[In 2006 Anderson’s] $250 million Point Fund… plunged 29 percent in the first five months of the year after a series of wrong-way bets on metal futures, forcing Ospraie to close it down. None of Anderson’s funds carries much leverage, and that helped the flagship Ospraie Fund survive despite its 19 percent loss in the same period.
‘The fact that I had a horrible quarter is a statistical probability, and we had always told people there is that possibility,’ Anderson says. ‘We do everything that we can to manage the risk, and I think we’re better at it today than we were a year ago.’”
A statistical probability, eh?
Cat: | Time: 12:12 pm (utc+8)
November 1st, 2007 at 3:45 am
Investment management: the only business in the world where people keep their jobs while producing apalling performance. “Its all about the long term” they say, while matching or underperforming indices year after year.
November 1st, 2007 at 7:01 am
Yeah well, can you do any better? Make a model and show the world. I dare ya.
November 1st, 2007 at 8:17 am
@Rod: Dwight’s record is pretty good … I don’t have a problem with hedge fund guys but I agree about the mutual fund business being a “great skimming operation.”
@The Piker: I note some hostility. If I get a dozen subscribers to the newsletter I’ll be thrilled.
November 1st, 2007 at 9:36 am
CM
My dad used to subscribe to several of the newsletters you mentioned in a prior thread, and others I read as a teenager at the local library.
He used to get the Cabot Market Letter from Carlton Lutts - a big momentum guy - and in bull markets like we’ve had since ‘03 he did really well.
I have no idea if Carlton Lutts Jr. is having the same success as his father, but they usually don’t fall too far from the tree - so to speak.
They used to give a very crude chart of their favorite picks using the relative strength chart. My dad was not a technician so he was intrigued. HA !
I’m curious if you ever saw their newsletter. My father used to keep them by the box full.
November 1st, 2007 at 9:52 am
Todd: I know the Cabot Market Letter is one of the more succesful newsletters out there though I’ve never seen a copy. I took a look at their website and it’s one of those cheesey come-ons that I hate (OUR PICK WHIZBANG UP 293% !!!) … my newsletter will try to be different.