October 11, 2008
Small Caps Close at All-Time Relative High
Looking at the bright side… :) Yes, practically everything has gotten murdered of late, but by looking at things in relative terms you can put things in perspective. Energies and Basic Materials were hit hardest whereas our old friends the Staples and Bonds held up very well, as did Biotechs, Gold, and Small Caps. The only way to win when everything crashes is to lose less.
Cat: | Time: 8:52 am (utc+8)
October 11th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Are you still using the black box? How do i get on your email list?
October 11th, 2008 at 11:01 am
RS to the spx is unreliable other than you will lose less than the SPX. I am sorting through the same issue. Thanks.
October 11th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
@Brad: There is no more email list since I discontinued it at the end of August, but I still keep my eye on the ideas the Box generates.
@max: I’m interested in losing less, yes.
October 11th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Apparently the small-caps were under-owned by those that had to liquidate in order to settle Lehman CDS obligations.
October 11th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
IJR is one of the indexes that actually demonstrated decent capitulation on Friday where it dropped lower initially, but then finished higher for the day. I would have liked higher volume on Fri., however.
Also, the head & shoulders top that goes back to early ‘06 broke the neckline at $57ish (depending on how you draw it) had a projected target of $41.
The low for IJR on Friday was $41.72.
So relatively speaking, yes, it’s possible that one could lose less in IJR than other indexes. : )
October 12th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
This link provides some convincing reasons to me why we are close to the bottom: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/10-bullish-sign.html
I still think that S&P 500 P/E values are a little high at 11. I’d like to see those come down to the single digits.
October 13th, 2008 at 7:33 am
I guess being all cash through this I am the big winner!
I hope this finally puts to rest the failed notion that Buy & Hold is the best strategy. Where are the stories of individual investors making bank owning the inverse ETFs?
October 13th, 2008 at 9:35 am
@Anthony: Who knows if we’re close to a bottom… all we know is that things are grossly undervalued (using traditional valuation measures like earnings and dividend yields, etc.)
October 13th, 2008 at 9:50 am
That’s a good point. I shouldn’t worry about “the bottom” but look at value instead.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
… just like how financials were grossly undervalued (using traditional valuation measures like earnings and dividend yields, etc.)? ;)
October 13th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
@Brian: Touche (don’t know how to do the accent aigu thingie). Just let me know *when* you buy and *what* you buy, and I’ll be happy.