June 26, 2007
Stock Du Jour (BX) & Random Observations
Decent, positive morning but then selling hit at 2 PM exactly (ding, ding!) and things got ugly… one look at the new lows versus new highs will tell you how bad the breadth was.
Notable New Lows: Sepracor (SEPR), Genentech (DNA); Homebuilders Hovnanian (HOV), Pulte (PHM), and Meritage (MTH); value traps McClatchy (MNI) and Journal Register (JRC); and plenty of REITs and Regional Banks.
Notable New Highs: Hoku (HOKU), Google (GOOG), Garmin (GRMN), and First Solar (FSLR).
I’ll feature an intraday chart of newly issued Blackstone Group (BX) as the stock du jour. Be nice if this IPO marked a top in the private equity “bubble,” but it probably doesn’t.
Cat: | Time: 9:11 am (utc+8)
June 26th, 2007 at 10:02 am
I got hurt by the selling:
DCEL entered off the 3rd 15 min bar for a fill of 10.87 and then raised my stop to 10.99 after the 7th 15 min bar. Stopped out at that price for a 1.7R. Missed a much better run by getting stopped out there. Tried to re-enter after the 1-1:15 bar but missed an entry. Almost lucky I didn’t get filled.
SYNM was bad. Entered off the 11-11:15 bar on what looked like 3 cents risk. Slippage got me filled at 3.27 and I got stopped out at 3.22 at 1230, before the major selling.
HK entered off the 130-145 bar at 17 and then got stopped out at 16.91 when the sellign started (my stop order was set for 16.93).
Were these bad entries and as such, should I just stick with my basket of uranium stocks (which should start to rally after a seasonal pullback) - or do they look ok?
June 26th, 2007 at 10:21 am
EC: I don’t have my charts in front of me, but I’ll take a look later. I used to quit around lunchtime and usually wouldn’t enter anything in the afternoon. I understand why you were looking at DCEL (unusual suspect) but not SYNM or HK (I don’t track NYSE or AMEX stocks anymore; I’m purely a NASDAQ man now).
My new website will be valuable to folks because they’ll be able to see the tone shift in real-time and manage their risk accordingly.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:32 am
new site? Do tell! :-)
June 26th, 2007 at 11:47 am
Babak: Look for it in 2010.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:54 am
i found it funny when FIG came public that the talk was…….”this is a first, a hedge fund going public!” now, all i hear when FIG is discussed (in the context of BX of course) is “don’t let their couple hedge funds fool ya folks, this is really a PE firm”
gotta hand it to the underwriters on that one. that green shoe is gonna get worn out real quick though………..and barron’s callin tops, huh? oh lord……..i will say this though - the timing might be right for em this summer - fed this week, earnings are just around the corner………….feels like a perfect time to set some bears up over the next couple weeks as they take control of the tape, cause this market ain’t wacked out yet valuation wize, and if yields break below 5% for a teaser, this market could get nutty.
don’t know if you read this one Mao - i’m sure you do - accrued interest - accruedint.blogspot.com
he called HD’s massive buyback a DIY-LBO, and it makes a lot of sense. a heck of a lot more sense than floatin all that debt at once like the PE guys do. i can’t even fathom what would happen if that gets popular………………….
June 26th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
SYNM and HK were both from briefing.com as gappers, and both had spikes in volume, especially SYNM.
June 26th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
@chad: I didn’t know about accruedint.blogspot.com, but I’ll delicious it now, thanks. I’m a long time HD shareholder and believe the company is deeply undervalued, but that’s just from looking at the numbers.
@EC: My radar didn’t see SYNM and I’d never see HK since it’s not NASDAQ.