August 24, 2005
What to Watch for in Toll Brothers
During yesterday’s chat on the homebuilders, we talked about the importance of watching how the Holy Grail trade works out in Toll Brothers. (If you’re unfamiliar with the Holy Grail technique, read this chat transcript.) Here’s a chart to help you know what we were talking about. If price goes up from here triggering a buy, but then fails to reach the target, we’ll know that $58+ level marks an important high. Keep an eye on it.

TOL, Weekly Chart
Cat: | Time: 7:00 am (utc+8)
June 8th, 2006 at 8:57 am
[…] Among the 249 ETFs I follow (well, the computer follows), the Oil Services HOLDR (OIH) was down the most. The trade that I suggested recently is very close to failing, which is a good thing because it makes me sure the highs hit in April (around $160) will mark a significant top, and that my Sentiment Survey, which reveals a remarkably complacent mood, has value. As I said in the comments section at the time: Eyal: The “tip” will be most valuable if the trade fails, just like the failed trade in TOL which marked the top not just of Toll Brothers but the whole Homebuilders group. […]