April 16, 2008
Will Google Fall Below $400?
Readers who took the trouble to Google the freebie for April 8 have done pretty well. The middle of the Target Zone is around $400 which looks like a long way down from here. Of course when the Box was looking for $20 in CROX last December, I also thought that was a little ambitious (turned out to be conservative).
Cat: | Time: 10:47 am (utc+8)
April 18th, 2008 at 1:17 am
South of $400 — as certain as day/night follows night/day…
currently ~all~ indicators are at bottom of page (oversold), and so bounce from the 412-408 area, followed by consolidation (right shoulder formation) before resumption of slice path…
suspect middle Bollinger Band on weekly will provide strong resistance and thus excellent position entry for next cataract (dive)…
once 412 goes, to me a lock is in, pattern confirmed, and only timing left…
April 18th, 2008 at 4:15 am
Ouch… GOOG beat estimates and is trading $500+ in AH
April 18th, 2008 at 5:26 am
Looks like the Box didn’t see the earnings coming!
April 18th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Those trailing a stop above 458.28 are out and dodged a bullet. Otherwise it looks like a 2+R loss … take it and move along.
April 18th, 2008 at 7:31 am
If that stop is just a tad looser … they’re phucked, and the trail will kick at the opening gap in the morning. As Howard might say … OY!
April 18th, 2008 at 7:44 am
Bill: 2R (3R, 4R, counting) losses happen, it sucks but that’s trading.
April 18th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Yeppers. It’s part of the reason why you need soooooo many trades to evaluate a system, and part of the reason you don’t want to get fooled by a cherry-picked backtesting result. One trade like that, a couple of ticks one way or another, and that trade makes a big difference in this calendar year’s result.
Seriously, not a knock on the box or your stop or anything else, just a comment on the way the ball bounces from time to time.
April 18th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Bill: I’m not sure how big a difference one surprise multiple R loss would make over a *year’s* results, but I’ll be sure to disclose everything about all trades in the annotated chart book which I’ll use for marketing material.
April 18th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Let’s suppose a good system pulls an average of 40R a year, and at 0.5% = R, that trader is compounding his wealth at over 20% annualized.
A trade that would be +2R with one stop, and -4R with another, represents a -6R swing, or not enough to “ruin” the year, but certainly enough to impact it.
If you’re evaluating two different systems, that one trade with one stoploss selection and one “unlucky” result may make you choose the *other* system.
April 18th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Bill: I hope the Box can do better than netting 40R a year, but I know what you’re saying.
April 19th, 2008 at 5:38 am
you have been hot. life goes on…. hope all is well over here