March 2, 2007
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2006 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
Warren Buffett’s 2006 Letter to Shareholders was posted yesterday. As always, it’s simply and clearly written. It’s also full of smart observations and sensible advice. And of course it’s highly entertaining (if you like cornball humor). Read the whole thing closely. Here are a few selected excerpts to whet your appetite:
Size seems to make many organizations slow-thinking, resistant to change and smug. In Churchillââ¬â¢s words: ââ¬ÅWe shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.ââ¬Â Hereââ¬â¢s a telling fact: Of the ten non-oil companies having the largest market capitalization in 1965 ââ¬â titans such as General Motors, Sears, DuPont and Eastman Kodak ââ¬â only one made the 2006 list.
My only tasks are to cheer [my managers] on, sculpt and harden our corporate culture, and make major capital-allocation decisions.
At ISCAR, as throughout Israel, brains and energy are ubiquitous.
We remain prepared to lose $6 billion in a single event, if we have been paid appropriately for assuming that risk. We are not willing, though, to take on even very small exposures at prices that donââ¬â¢t reflect our evaluation of loss probabilities.
Our behaviorââ¬Â¦ in financial markets: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
We sometimes encounter accounting footnotes about important transactions that leave us baffled, and we go away suspicious that the reporting company wished it that way. (For example, try comprehending transactions ââ¬Ådescribedââ¬Â in the old 10-Ks of Enron, even after you know how the movie ended.)
When an industryââ¬â¢s underlying economics are crumbling, talented management may slow the rate of decline. Eventually, though, eroding fundamentals will overwhelm managerial brilliance. (As a wise friend told me long ago, ââ¬ÅIf you want to get a reputation as a good businessman, be sure to get into a good business.ââ¬Â) And fundamentals are definitely eroding in the newspaper industry, a trend that has caused the profits of our Buffalo News to decline. The skid will almost certainly continue.
ââ¬Â¦the economic potential of a newspaper internet site ââ¬â given the many alternative sources of information and entertainment that are free and only a click away ââ¬â is at best a small fraction of that existing in the past for a print newspaper facing no competition.
Charlie and I love newspapers ââ¬â we each read five a day ââ¬â and believe that a free and energetic press is a key ingredient for maintaining a great democracy. We hope that some combination of print and online will ward off economic doomsday for newspapersââ¬Â¦. But the days of lush profits from our newspaper are over.
The slowdown in residential real estate activity stems in part from the weakened lending practices of recent years. The ââ¬Åoptionalââ¬Â contracts and ââ¬Åteaserââ¬Â rates that have been popular have allowed borrowers to make payments in the early years of their mortgages that fall far short of covering normal interest costs. Naturally, there are few defaults when virtually nothing is required of a borrower. As a cynic has said, ââ¬ÅA rolling loan gathers no loss.ââ¬Â But payments not made add to principal, and borrowers who canââ¬â¢t afford normal monthly payments early on are hit later with above-normal monthly obligations. This is the Scarlett Oââ¬â¢Hara scenario: ââ¬ÅIââ¬â¢ll think about that tomorrow.ââ¬Â For many home owners, ââ¬Åtomorrowââ¬Â has now arrived.
I fervently believe in real trade ââ¬â the more the better for both us and the world.
ââ¬Â¦ derivatives, just like stocks and bonds, are sometimes wildly mispriced. For many years, accordingly, we have selectively written derivative contracts ââ¬â few in number but sometimes for large dollar amounts. We currently have 62 contracts outstanding. I manage them personally, and they are free of counterparty credit risk.
Itââ¬â¢s not hard, of course, to find smart people, among them individuals who have impressive investment records. But there is far more to successful long-term investing than brains and performance that has recently been good. Over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things. A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered. Certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions. Temperament is also important. Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success. Iââ¬â¢ve seen a lot of very smart people who have lacked these virtues.
ââ¬Â¦ board members [must] be owner-oriented, business-savvy, interested and truly independent. ââ¬Â¦ Charlie and I believe our four criteria are essential if directors are to do their job ââ¬â which, by law, is to faithfully represent owners. Yet these criteria are usually ignored. ââ¬Â¦ Iââ¬â¢ve been queried many times about potential directors and have yet to hear anyone ask, ââ¬ÅDoes he think like an intelligent owner?ââ¬Â
At Berkshireââ¬Â¦ I am a one-man compensation committee who determines the salaries and incentives for the CEOs of around 40 significant operating businesses. How much time does this aspect of my job take? Virtually none. How many CEOs have voluntarily left us for other jobs in our 42-year history? Precisely none. ââ¬Â¦ When we use incentives ââ¬â and these can be large ââ¬â they are always tied to the operating results for which a given CEO has authority. We issue no lottery tickets that carry payoffs unrelated to business performance.
Compensation reform will only occur if the largest institutional shareholders ââ¬â it would only take a few ââ¬â demand a fresh look at the whole system.
In my will Iââ¬â¢ve stipulated that the proceeds from all Berkshire shares I still own at death are to be used for philanthropic purposes within ten years after my estate is closed. ââ¬Â¦ Iââ¬â¢ve set this schedule because I want the money to be spent relatively promptly by people I know to be capable, vigorous and motivated. These managerial attributes sometimes wane as institutions ââ¬â particularly those that are exempt from market forces ââ¬â age.
When Walter and Edwin [Schloss] were asked in 1989 by Outstanding Investors Digest, ââ¬ÅHow would you summarize your approach?ââ¬Â Edwin replied, ââ¬ÅWe try to buy stocks cheap.ââ¬Â So much for Modern Portfolio Theory, technical analysis, macroeconomic thoughts and complex algorithms.
ââ¬Â¦ a finance instructor who [has] the nerve to question EMT [efficient markets theory] [has] about as much chance of major promotion as Galileo had of being named Pope.
Fred Schwedââ¬â¢s classic, Where are the Customersââ¬â¢ Yachts? ââ¬Â¦ was first published in 1940 and is now in its 4th edition. The funniest book ever written about investing, it lightly delivers many truly important messages on the subject.
Charlie and I are extraordinarily lucky. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a ââ¬Åbusinessââ¬Â gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to other people who contribute as much or more to our societyââ¬â¢s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped every day in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. No wonder we tapdance to work.
Related:
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2005 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2004 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2003 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders (still can’t find my notes)
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2002 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
Warren Buffettââ¬â¢s 2001 Letter To Berkshire Shareholders
March 3rd, 2007 at 4:13 am
Does it make sense for Berkshire to show a loss of 12.7 million on the RMB foreign-exchange position?
March 3rd, 2007 at 8:31 am
Jack: I wondered about that too … it’s a mystery because the RMB has steadily appreciated over that period.
March 3rd, 2007 at 9:12 pm
It should be called the “Give a hand for the band” letter.
March 3rd, 2007 at 10:37 pm
bjk: Yeah, well the troops always need a little recognition and I think if Buffett had another son he’d name him Ajit.