I took a look at PredictIt’s Electoral College map (below) and put the numbers into a spreadsheet.

The election will be decided by a handful of swing states. Assuming the incumbent wins all the swing states which are tilting his way (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, etc.), he only needs to win Pennsylvania and some combination of either Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin to be re-elected, which seems to be a pretty low bar. Of course in 2016 he won all four of those states, which was no surprise to me. This election is a harder call than the last one, but I think the incumbent has a very good chance to win.